Trulia says:What bubble? U.S. home prices undervalued by 3%, 但是，

来源: trimtip 于 2014-10-08 11:59:30 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : 0 (2926 bytes)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-slowdown--home-prices-are-undervalued-by-3-122221942.html

加州也有overvalue，但由于没有足够的construction去support买房市场demand, 所以看来还会涨。

The hot housing market may have cooled slightly but home values nationwide are still undervalued by 3%. That's according to Trulia's quarterly Bubble Watch report.

Despite existing home sales stalling and price growth slowing, Trulia finds just 7 of the largest 100 metro housing markets in the U.S. are overvalued by more than 10%. The real estate web portal measures home prices against incomes, rents and historic trends for the report each quarter. "Price gains are decelerating," says Trulia's chief economist, Jed Kolko, "and you’re not seeing them rise as quickly as they were a year ago. And that’s a good thing."

Kolko says that means that prices are slowing down before reaching "bubble territory." Austin, Texas, leads that small group of overvalued markets. Trulia found home prices overvalued by 19% in the third quarter in Austin. Houston, Texas also made the list of top overvalued cities. Texas didn't see the sharp price increases other markets did in the run-up to the housing crash. Kolko points out that "even in Texas prices look between 10 and 20 percent overvalued in Austin and Houston. That is so far from where prices were in the bubbliest markets in the last decade."

California had six of the top 10 most overvalued markets. Kolko says that even post-housing bust, California continued to be overvalued relative to incomes. He says, "California, New York, [and] parts of Boston have a chronic, not an acute, affordability crisis because of not enough construction to keep up with demand."

So are these bubbles about to burst? Kolko says it's different this time around. He points out that "individual markets in the last decade were 50, 60, even 70 percent overvalued at their worst."

As for undervalued markets, Trulia found the most affordable cities to be in the Midwest. Dayton, Cleveland, and Akron, Ohio were all in the top five most undervalued cities. Detroit came in at number two. Kolko says, "this is a bubble measure so we are looking at prices compared to what is normal for those local markets. So prices in places like Detroit and Cleveland look undervalued relative to their normal."

With home prices undervalued in most markets and mortgage rates still near historic lows, Kolko says now is a great time to buy. The challenge he points out though is in the wake of the recession "lots of people don’t have enough for a down payment or can’t qualify for a mortgage." Kolko believes "even people who want to buy and for whom buying would make more sense than renting, they can’t right now."

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