Thanks. Good point

your point a very useful for picking stock in the investment profolio.  I agree completely.  But I want to add more into it.

"If one is long-term value-oriented, he may want to pay more attention to finding values than a formula for timing the market."

Yes, finding good/solid long term stock is a basic strategy for picking stock. I have no problem. I am doing exactly that for my long stocks. However, when the overall market condition is changing over last decade,  I have to put (or weight more) the economy condition into the equation to adjust my cash position.  That is why I put my observation/assumptions up first, and make decision on my cash position. 

"For a dividend investor looking for income, some of the safe (and boring) stocks offer historically best values. Each dollar invested _generates_ cash and moves one closer to the Golden Finish Line (see my previous post)."

There are many such dividend_generating stocks.  To pick the right one and riding through the market storm is not easy.  REIT stock/ETFs were known for that.  But most of them do not hold value in this down turn.  I remember FRO was a hot stock (really high dividend) on this board.  It does not last for ever.  So same conclusion, I need to add the economy condition into the equation to adjust my cash position.

"As for cash position, there are different theories, e.g., based on age, fixed portion and regular rebalancing, DCA, etc. But these are tactic instead of strategic decisions. To make the bigger decisions, one's expectation should be based on study of historic returns of the market."

This did not contradict my point.  I have to use same strategy, such as DCA.  Historic returns of the market tells me that I need conserve cash in current market condition.  Maybe you have different idea on this.  I would like to know.

Thanks for your point.