predicting, calculating short term is actually meaningless

no one can time the market, market is the aggregation of all people's moment's decision in that one second, one hour or one day, some panicing, some paniced already, some are scaling in, some are betting with farm, its outcome is hard to predict at that moment, but there is value when some one is selling in panic, that is why Buffet is the king of stocks, he buys when people are panicing. Now he has too much cash, that is why his performance is not that good.