It is hard to predict future

来源: VanSmallLandlord 2010-11-10 06:40:40 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 0 次 (1849 bytes)

but from investor's point of view, which is cash flow based, low interest rate can keep the cash flow favorable. Remember, the rates now are even lower than early of 2009. Now people can get 3.5% for 5 years everywhere. For one year, it is 2.3%, and variable rate is primary - 0.8 or even 1. Plus, everybody is waiting for that big inflation. It is hard to see the price can drop. And if it drops a little bit, then offers coming are counts 10 or 20, which will push it up to market price right away. Like I said, those people got professional jobs and bought houses in early 00s, they saw some friends were in labor work, but got rich by investing RE, or saw RE going up like crazy, or their friends in China holding multiple properties, they all think about buying, whether they have guts to buy or not is another story.

On the other hand, it is very hard for the first time buyers to get in, because investors can use rental income to offset the debt when calculatiing GDSR and TDSR, but first time buyers don't have this advantage, they are priced out of the market. This can be a dangerous factor to the price, because if there is no new blood into market, but all depend on investors and outsiders from China, not sure how long it can last.

I don't have inside news as miat, so I only can watch market to build up my guess. If you are an investor, do your home work based on the cash flow, treat landlording as a business to build up your portfolio, leave enough money (can be in form of equity line of credit) in case a big dip, then you can attack again. If you are a first timer buyer, try to find a property you can rent out the basement (especially those Vancouver special are good for this), and try to find a bank is willing to count the potential rental income into GDSR/TDSR, and to get the loan.

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