There is a webcast at T RowePrice which stated that over 15 years period stock market never lost money since 1926. The average return is 10%. Bonds never lost money either for the same time period. But, its return is 4%.
http://www.webcastgroup.com/webcast/window_new/frameset.asp?WebcastID=3843&e=fyjin@yahoo.com&hid=
http://www.webcastgroup.com/webcast/window_new/frameset.asp?WebcastID=3843&e=fyjin@yahoo.com&hid=