It is constructive to suggest a probability. That is why I am so against posts like 燕王, talking about depression as certainty. It is like people talking about ever rising housing price like certainty just a year ago. Nothing is certain, otherwise we won't have a market. If u are so certain of sth, I am sure you can change your confidence into shinning gold in today's financial market. In a bull market, bullish posts are very popular, just like bearish comments are so popular now. Please put all these into perspective in a big picture of business cycles.
By the way "一个个心怀鬼胎" is the assumption of capitalism. Everybody protects its own interest, and it works the best for society as a whole. We can talk about capitalism's pros and cons, but history has proved that it works better than pure socialism. I think we need both especially in a time of crisis, but we need to realize that they are fundamentally against each other. This is the reason why US government hesitate to use some tools even facing current dooming situations. Human nature can't be trusted.
Finally, cash or T-Bill is just one form of assets, today it looks like the safest, just like stock price can be halved overnight upon bad news, cash may do the same thing when some kind of policy comes out and confidence on cash collapsed. To be really protected, you need to diversify over all kind of assets. Fully diversification also means u won't get a good return.
By the way "一个个心怀鬼胎" is the assumption of capitalism. Everybody protects its own interest, and it works the best for society as a whole. We can talk about capitalism's pros and cons, but history has proved that it works better than pure socialism. I think we need both especially in a time of crisis, but we need to realize that they are fundamentally against each other. This is the reason why US government hesitate to use some tools even facing current dooming situations. Human nature can't be trusted.
Finally, cash or T-Bill is just one form of assets, today it looks like the safest, just like stock price can be halved overnight upon bad news, cash may do the same thing when some kind of policy comes out and confidence on cash collapsed. To be really protected, you need to diversify over all kind of assets. Fully diversification also means u won't get a good return.