看到了Campbell的解释

http://www.mcspotlight.org/media/reports/campbell_china2.html

In the China study, the analysis of blood samples shows that plasma cotinine (a nicotine metabolite from tobacco smoking) is inversely associated with diseases of affluence including lung cancer but directly associated with diseases of poverty. At first glance, this finding might appear anomalous, since the smoking of manufactured cigarettes in China has been centered mostly around major metropolitan areas such as Shanghai where diseases of affluence are more common. However, high plasma cotinine levels in the rural areas where diseases of poverty predominate, are strongly associated with the use of homemade cigarettes which contain high levels of nicotine (R. Peto, personal communication). Thus the inverse association between plasma cotinine levels and diseases of affluence may be explained by the high consumption of homemade cigarettes in less affluent areas and the lower consumption of homemade cigarettes in more industrialized and more literate regions of the country.

所有跟帖： 

• 我就是在猜测旱烟和香烟也许在致癌作用上有相当大的不同。我上面说的二者负相关是单指旱烟 -虎嗅蔷薇- ♀ (771 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 11:50:13

• 谢谢，同意。 -吃与活- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 13:15:20

• 他把肺癌归类到富贵病，他这段话是不是在说，吸烟本身不是导致肺癌的第一因素，而富裕生活方式才是？我这么理解他的话对不对？ -虎嗅蔷薇- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 12:53:19

• 我也是这样理解他的解读，但这样的认识是不是有道理我也不知道。一个解释可以是烟草诱癌，但乡下人的生活方式使癌得不到发展壮大。 -吃与活- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 13:19:49

• 这个不就是坎贝尔的中心思想： -虎嗅蔷薇- ♀ (410 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 13:48:00

• 坎贝尔有点倔强 ；） -吃与活- ♂ (47 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 14:03:31

• 是有点牵强。那个负相关是China Study里成千上万个关联之一，说不定就是个anomaly，没啥意义的一个factoid而已 -虎嗅蔷薇- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/05/2016 postreply 22:09:58