Soft landing
25% likely
Iran war resolves H2 2026. Warsh turns dovish. AI productivity drives growth. Global normalization.
| US GDP 2026 | +2.5% |
| Unemployment | 4.2% |
| Oil (Brent) | $65-75/bbl |
| S&P 500 | Flat to +5% |
| Fed rate path | 2-3 cuts H2 2026 |
| Inflation | 2.5-3% |
| Dollar | Weakening |
| Gold | $4,200-4,600 (war premium fades) |
What triggers this
Iran ceasefire confirmed, Hormuz reopens
Warsh signals 2+ rate cuts at June FOMC
Prolonged war / stagflation
35% likely — base case
Iran war drags 12-18 months. Oil stays $90-120. Warsh hawkish. Growth slows but no recession. Stagflation entrenched.
| US GDP 2026 | +1.0-1.5% |
| Unemployment | 5-5.5% |
| Oil (Brent) | $90-120/bbl |
| S&P 500 | -10 to -15% |
| Fed rate path | 0-1 cuts, constrained by inflation |
| Inflation | 4-6% |
| Dollar | Elevated, then weakening 2027 |
| Gold | $5,000-6,300 by year end |
What triggers this
Hormuz stays disrupted through Q3 2026
Warsh confirmed but signals hawkish rules-based policy
Core PCE stays above 3.5% through 2026
Severe recession (-30%)
20% likely
Iran war escalates (Russia/China involvement). Global recession. S&P -30%. Banking stress. Oil spikes above $130 then collapses on demand destruction.
| US GDP 2026 | -1 to -2% |
| Unemployment | 7-8% |
| Oil (Brent) | $130 spike → $80 (demand collapse) |
| S&P 500 | -25 to -35% |
| Fed rate path | Emergency cuts mid-2026 |
| Inflation | 5-8% then falling |
| Dollar | Safe-haven spike then decline |
| Gold | Dip on liquidation then +30-40% |
What triggers this
Russia or China enters conflict materially
US bank failures from credit defaults
S&P breaks 200-week moving average decisively
Great depression analog
5% likely — black swan
Complete financial system breakdown. S&P -50%+. Banking system stress. Unemployment 15%+. Real estate -25%. Dollar loses reserve currency status simultaneously. Multi-year event (1929-1933 template).
| US GDP 2026-28 | -8 to -15% cumulative |
| Unemployment peak | 15-20% |
| Oil (Brent) | $60 (demand collapse) |
| S&P 500 peak-to-trough | -50 to -60% |
| Fed rate path | 0% emergency, QE5+ |
| Inflation | Deflation first, then hyperinflation |
| Dollar | Crisis — reserve status threatened |
| Gold | +80-150% in dollars |
What triggers this
Iran war + simultaneous China-Taiwan conflict
Major US bank failure (SVB × 100 scale)
CAPE 39x + oil shock = 1929-style multiple compression
Dollar loses SWIFT dominance rapidly
Warsh dovish + AI boom
10% likely
Warsh surprises market with dovish stance citing AI productivity as disinflationary. Iran resolves quickly. Tech bull market resumes. Best case scenario.
| US GDP 2026 | +3.5-4.5% |
| Unemployment | 3.8% |
| Oil (Brent) | $60-70/bbl |
| S&P 500 | +15 to +25% |
| Fed rate path | 3-4 cuts 2026-2027 |
| Inflation | 2-2.5% (AI productivity) |
| Dollar | Weakening — EM tailwind |
| Gold | $5,500+ (dollar weakness) |
What triggers this
Warsh June FOMC: "AI is structurally disinflationary"
Iran resolves by April — oil drops to $65
Bitcoin halving cycle bottom confirmed Oct 2026
Dollar crisis / de-dollarization
5% likely
Dollar loses reserve currency status meaningfully. BRICS payment system gains traction. Gold and Bitcoin become monetary anchors. Dollar-denominated assets crater in real terms while real assets surge.
| US GDP | 0 to -3% (real terms) |
| Unemployment | 8-10% |
| Oil in USD | $150+ (dollar weak) |
| S&P 500 (real) | -20 to -30% real terms |
| Fed response | QE unlimited — makes it worse |
| Inflation | 8-15% sustained |
| Dollar index | DXY below 85 (-15%+) |
| Gold | $8,000-12,000 (your thesis vindicated) |
What triggers this
BRICS oil trade moves to yuan/gold settlement at scale
US fiscal deficit exceeds 10% GDP — debt spiral fears
Multiple central banks announce gold reserve targets >20%
Bitcoin spot ETF flows exceed Treasury ETF flows
