Deferred: 1566. Assuming 60% get admitted, that's1096

来源: k-18 于 2023-12-24 20:59:27 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读： 次 (719 bytes)
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回答: 怎么估算 Deferral Admission 概率 由 贾平凸 于 2023-12-24 19:23:00

Assuming RD population is 44925 (projected from last year). RD admits = 2275(last year) - 709 (EA) - 1096 = 470.

470 /44925 = 1%. This is unlikely low.

If we assume 30% deferred are admitted, then 30% * 1566 = 548.

Assuming RD population is 44925 (projected from last year). then RD admits = 2275(last year) - 709 (EA) - 548= 1018.

1018 /44925 = 2.3%. This feels more reasonable.

But all things considered, I think only 20-25% deferred will be admitted.

 

Even simpler calculation,

20% * 60% = 12%, add that to EA admits of 9%, we got 21% total for EA pool. That's highly unlikely when the overall pool has <5% chance.

所有跟帖： 

• Good thought -贾平凸- ♂ 给 贾平凸 发送悄悄话 贾平凸 的博客首页 (282 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 21:26:53

• I can't find a link for the number 2.5%. This is the key -k-18- ♂ 给 k-18 发送悄悄话 k-18 的博客首页 (460 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 21:36:48

• So I told you it is 2.5%, this can be the key too -贾平凸- ♂ 给 贾平凸 发送悄悄话 贾平凸 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 21:42:21

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