Boost and likelihood

来源: 米汤 于 2022-08-10 09:12:30 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (424760 bytes)

NYT分析了各个大学父母收入区间和学生35岁收入区间的情况，可能是根据能够收集到的助学金申请或是报税资料，当然很多高收入的不会提供也不反映在税表上，不过数据确实反映父母和学生的阶层是否人数增长（boost）和同一阶层多少学生会回到父母阶层（likelihood)

 
access: parents family income
          
out come: student income at 35
        
Boost = outcome - access
        
Likely = outcome/access
              
  top 0.1% top 1% top 5% top 10% top 20% bottom 20% top 1% top 5% top 10% top 20% bottom 20% top 1% top 5% top 10% top 20% bottom 20% top 1% top 5% top 10% top 20% bottom 20% married in 2 years Moved up 2 Q bottom Q to top Q
Trinity College 6.0% 26% 56% 64% 75% 3.00% 10% 29% 43% 58% 9.60% -16% -27% -21% -17% 7% 38% 52% 67% 77% 320% 48% 12% 2%
Middlebury 4.4% 23% 53% 67% 76% 2.70% 11% 28% 39% 55% 8.10% -12% -25% -28% -21% 5% 48% 53% 58% 72% 300% 60% 7.90% 1.30%
Colorado college 3.6% 24% 54% 67% 78% 2.00% 3.30% 13% 22% 38% 11% -21% -41% -45% -40% 9% 14% 24% 33% 49% 550% 56% 12% 1.80%
Dartmouth 4.5% 21% 45% 58% 69% 2.60% 18% 39% 50% 63% 7.60% -3% -6% -8% -6% 5% 86% 87% 86% 91% 292% 57% 11% 1.40%
WashU 3.7% 22% 57% 71% 84% 1% 10% 31% 43% 60% 7.90% -12% -26% -28% -24% 7% 45% 54% 61% 71% 790% 59% 9% 1%
Georgetown 4.0% 21% 51% 61% 74% 3.10% 18% 41% 54% 69% 8% -3% -10% -7% -5% 5% 86% 80% 89% 93% 258% 56% 11% 1.90%
Amherst 4.4% 21% 41% 51% 60% 4.70% 14% 34% 44% 59% 8% -7% -7% -7% -1% 3% 67% 83% 86% 98% 170% 56% 13% 2%
Brown 4.3% 19% 47% 60% 70% 4.10% 14% 32% 43% 59% 9.10% -5% -15% -17% -11% 5% 74% 68% 72% 84% 222% 53% 9.40% 1.50%
Vandy 3.8% 23% 47% 59% 70% 1.90% 12% 33% 47% 61% 10% -11% -14% -12% -9% 8% 52% 70% 80% 87% 526% 64% 11% 1.50%
Southern Methodist 3.8% 23% 47% 56% 67% 3.30% 8.10% 25% 36% 50% 13% -15% -22% -20% -17% 10% 35% 53% 64% 75% 394% 59% 13% 1.80%
UPenn 3.6% 19% 45% 58% 71% 3.30% 23% 46% 57% 69% 8.40% 4% 1% -1% -2% 5% 121% 102% 98% 97% 255% 59% 13% 2.10%
Duke 3.8% 19% 44% 56% 69% 3.90% 20% 44% 55% 68% 8.30% 1% 0% -1% -1% 4% 105% 100% 98% 99% 213% 60% 11% 1.60%
Yale 3.7% 19% 45% 57% 69% 2.10% 18% 40% 50% 63% 7.80% -1% -5% -7% -6% 6% 95% 89% 88% 91% 371% 55% 10% 2.10%
Princeton 3.1% 17% 44% 58% 72% 2.20% 23% 45% 57% 69% 8% 6% 1% -1% -3% 6% 135% 102% 98% 96% 364% 59% 8.70% 1.30%
Stanford 3.5% 17% 39% 52% 66% 4.00% 21% 43% 54% 67% 8.60% 4% 4% 2% 1% 5% 124% 110% 104% 102% 215% 55% 12% 2.20%
Wake Forest 2.7% 22% 49% 61% 71% 2.30% 10% 33% 46% 61% 8.20% -12% -16% -15% -10% 6% 45% 67% 75% 86% 357% 65% 8.60% 1%
Williams 2.8% 18% 42% 55% 67% 5.30% 13% 29% 40% 54% 8.40% -5% -13% -15% -13% 3% 72% 69% 73% 81% 158% 57% 9.30% 1%
Barnard 3.0% 17% 46% 56% 65% 6.60% 6.70% 21% 32% 51% 13% -10% -25% -24% -14% 6% 39% 46% 57% 78% 197% 53% 16% 3.50%
Harvard 3.0% 15% 39% 53% 67% 4.50% 21% 42% 52% 65% 9.20% 6% 3% -1% -2% 5% 140% 108% 98% 97% 204% 53% 11% 1.80%
Columbia 2.9% 13% 36% 48% 62% 5.10% 17% 38% 49% 64% 9.30% 4% 2% 1% 2% 4% 131% 106% 102% 103% 182% 52% 14% 3.10%
USC 2.6% 14% 39% 51% 63% 4.90% 7.8% 27% 40% 56% 11.00% -6% -12% -11% -7% 6% 56% 69% 78% 89% 224% 50% 20% 3.9%
Northwestern 1.9% 14% 41% 53% 66% 3.70% 14% 35% 47% 62% 8.30% 0% -6% -6% -4% 5% 100% 85% 89% 94% 224% 58% 11% 1.7%
ND 1.7% 15% 44% 59% 75% 1.60% 13% 37% 51% 67% 7.70% -2% -7% -8% -8% 6% 87% 84% 86% 89% 481% 68% 7.9% 1%
SCU 1.8% 14% 44% 58% 71% 2.90% 9.3% 33% 47% 63% 10.00% -5% -11% -11% -8% 7% 66% 75% 81% 89% 345% 61% 14% 2.2%
Pomona 1.6% 14% 40% 52% 67% 4.40% 11% 26% 37% 56% 8.60% -3% -14% -15% -11% 4% 79% 65% 71% 84% 195% 54% 11% 2.0%
JHU 1.7% 11% 40% 56% 72% 2.90% 13% 34% 49% 65% 7.60% 2% -6% -7% -7% 5% 118% 85% 88% 90% 262% 57% 14% 2.20%
NYU 1.7% 11% 34% 48% 62% 6.10% 8.9% 25% 37% 52% 11.00% -2% -9% -11% -10% 5% 81% 74% 77% 84% 180% 47% 18% 3.60%
Emory 1.7% 15% 36% 46% 58% 6.00% 13% 33% 44% 59% 9.60% -2% -3% -2% 1% 4% 87% 92% 96% 102% 160% 58% 13% 1.80%
Cornell 1.5% 10% 33% 48% 64% 3.80% 14% 39% 52% 66% 8.20% 4% 6% 4% 2% 4% 140% 118% 108% 103% 216% 58% 16% 2.90%
Swarthmore 1.3% 9.0% 41% 53% 66% 4.30% 8.90% 23% 33% 50% 8.50% 0% -18% -20% -16% 4% 99% 56% 62% 76% 198% 51% 14% 2.30%
MIT 1.5% 5.7% 29% 43% 61% 6.20% 20% 49% 62% 73% 7.10% 14% 20% 19% 12% 1% 351% 169% 144% 120% 115% 56% 16% 3.40%
Michigan 1.1% 9.3% 33% 49% 66% 3.60% 10.00% 30% 44% 60% 8% 1% -3% -5% -6% 5% 108% 91% 90% 91% 231% 59% 10% 1.50%
Scripts <1% 14% 37% 49% 64% 2.40% 3.50% 11% 20% 40% 15% -11% -26% -29% -24% 13% 25% 30% 41% 63% 625% 54% 13% 2.50%
Harvey Mudd <1% 13% 29% 44% 68% 2.90% 11% 37% 53% 68% 8.20% -2% 8% 9% 0% 5% 85% 128% 120% 100% 283% 53% 17% 2.90%
Wellesley <1% 11% 33% 45% 59% 6.50% 6.80% 21% 33% 51% 12% -4% -12% -12% -8% 6% 62% 64% 73% 86% 185% 50% 14% 2.40%
Chicago <1% 10% 32% 44% 58% 5.50% 11% 29% 39% 55% 9.30% 1% -3% -5% -3% 4% 110% 91% 89% 95% 169% 51% 14% 1.90%
Rice <1% 9.8% 35% 50% 64% 4.90% 17.00% 37% 50% 65% 7% 7% 2% 0% 1% 2% 173% 106% 100% 102% 145% 60% 14% 1.60%
CMU <1% 7.0% 34% 49% 66% 4.00% 13.00% 37% 51% 63% 9% 6% 3% 2% -3% 5% 186% 109% 104% 95% 218% 54% 14% 2.20%
Bryn Mawr <1% 7.9% 26% 38% 55% 4.10% 2.90% 13% 23% 39% 13% -5% -13% -15% -16% 9% 37% 50% 61% 71% 317% 47% 14% 1.80%
Mount Holyoke <1% 5.2% 23% 38% 48% 5.70% 1.60% 9.70% 21% 42% 10% -4% -13% -17% -6% 4% 31% 42% 55% 88% 175% 50% 15% 2.60%
UT <1% 5.4% 23% 38% 56% 6.00% 7.10% 24% 36% 52% 10% 2% 1% -2% -4% 4% 131% 104% 95% 93% 167% 59% 15% 2.20%
Smith <1% 4.4% 25% 39% 53% 5.80% 1.70% 10% 20% 39% 11% -3% -15% -19% -14% 5% 39% 40% 51% 74% 190% 50% 14% 1.90%
UCLA <1% 4.2% 20% 33% 48% 8.30% 8.20% 27% 41% 59% 10% 4% 7% 8% 11% 2% 195% 135% 124% 123% 120% 51% 24% 5.60%
Cal <1% 3.8% 23% 38% 54% 7.30% 10% 31% 44% 60% 9.70% 6% 8% 6% 6% 2% 263% 135% 116% 111% 133% 50% 22% 4.90%
UCSB <1% 3.4% 19% 33% 48% 7.60% 4.80% 21% 34% 53% 9.80% 1% 2% 1% 5% 2% 141% 111% 103% 110% 129% 54% 17% 3.10%
Caltech <1% 3.0% 25% 47% 69% 2.90% 14% 38% 52% 67% 8.40% 11% 13% 5% -2% 6% 467% 152% 111% 97% 290% 54% 17% 3.20%
GT <1% 3.2% 22% 38% 59% 4.60% 6.80% 32% 52% 69% 7.10% 4% 10% 14% 10% 3% 213% 145% 137% 117% 154% 64% 15% 1.90%
UW <1% 2.9% 17% 31% 51% 5.70% 4.20% 20% 33% 52% 11% 1% 3% 2% 1% 5% 145% 118% 106% 102% 193% 58% 17% 2.50%
UIUC <1% 2.5% 16% 30% 50% 6.10% 5.0% 21% 35% 54% 8.50% 3% 5% 5% 4% 2% 200% 131% 117% 108% 139% 60% 17% 2.10%
UCD <1% 2.4% 16% 29% 45% 9.00% 4.4% 21% 36% 56% 9.10% 2% 5% 7% 11% 0% 183% 131% 124% 124% 101% 56% 22% 4.40%
UCSD <1% 1.8% 14% 26% 40% 11.0% 6.3% 25% 40% 58% 9.60% 5% 11% 14% 18% -1% 350% 179% 154% 145% 87% 54% 22% 4.80%
UCI <1% 1.3% 12% 27% 45% 8.70% 3.6% 20% 35% 54% 10.00% 2% 8% 8% 9% 1% 277% 167% 130% 120% 115% 50% 27% 6.80%
SJSU <1% <1% 10% 23% 43% 8.10% 2.1% 17% 31% 51% 9.00% 2% 7% 8% 8% 1% 200% 177% 135% 119% 111% 51% 26% 5.40%
average 3.0% 13% 35% 49% 63% 4.63% 11% 30% 42% 58% 9.32% -1% -6% -6% -5% 5% 121% 93% 91% 94% 249% 56% 14% 2%
medium 3.0% 14% 37% 50% 66% 4.30% 10% 31% 43% 59% 9.00% 0% -5% -6% -4% 5% 99% 89% 89% 93% 213% 56% 14% 2%
                                                 
top 1%
M, Caltech, Rice/CMU/Cal/H/P
                                              
top 5%
M, Caltech, GT/UCSD, Mudd/Ucla/UCI/SJSU
                                              
top 10%
M, GT/UCSD, Mudd/Ucla/UCI/SJSU
                                              
top 20%
UCSD, M/Ucla/GT,UCD
                                              
Move up 2 Q
UCs/USC/SJSU
                                              
Bottom to Top
UCs/USC/SJSU
                                              
data source
anonymous tax record; maybe bias towards W-2 income
                                            

所有跟帖： 

• 感谢分享数据，这种统计比个例更有普遍意义：） -bayview- ♀ 给 bayview 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 09:48:58

• 还是STEM 靠谱 -run2022- ♂ 给 run2022 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 09:52:58

• 谢谢分享 -成功的兔- ♀ 给 成功的兔 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 10:00:43

• 看的眼花缭乱，哪位好心人summary一下？ -ahawater- ♀ 给 ahawater 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 10:42:52

• Outcome with the highest top 1%, 5%, 10%: UPenn/P/M, H/S -米汤- ♂ 给 米汤 发送悄悄话 米汤 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 16:24:22

• 总结 -mom2023- ♀ 给 mom2023 发送悄悄话 (786 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 11:55:03

• 加大竞争上阶层，在穷人多如sjsu还有机会翻身；富人学校有些一半到5%尖，有些猜是学生阶层统计缺失，或者躺平在家族信托上 -米汤- ♂ 给 米汤 发送悄悄话 米汤 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 12:16:41

• Very high (>50%) for “married in two years” across the board -游水皖鱼- ♂ 给 游水皖鱼 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 12:24:22

• 应该是2014 结婚，出生1980-82 ， class of 2002， 标志错误:不是两年结婚而是32-34岁左右 -米汤- ♂ 给 米汤 发送悄悄话 米汤 的博客首页 (525055 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 12:28:33

• 每個學校小孩落到bottom 20%的比例都比父母還高？ -violinpiano- ♂ 给 violinpiano 发送悄悄话 (204 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 12:45:11

• 只能说大学统计35岁不少孩子还在这个区间，不一定是来自原生家庭在这个区间的同一批,也可能收入统计不到 -米汤- ♂ 给 米汤 发送悄悄话 米汤 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 12:49:42

• 我的意思是父母那一輩 而不是和自己父母比 -violinpiano- ♂ 给 violinpiano 发送悄悄话 (91 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 12:54:56

• 不同的年龄段，父母的收入应是中年~50，而孩子的是34岁时的 -游水皖鱼- ♂ 给 游水皖鱼 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 13:34:29

• 女校毕业生结婚率普遍偏低呀， 到了32-34岁结婚率只有47-50%。 -whaled- ♂ 给 whaled 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 12:54:52

• 是啊，看了女校数据觉得不如选middlebury -米汤- ♂ 给 米汤 发送悄悄话 米汤 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 13:06:10

• 公校明显boost高是，父母起点相对低。私校父母起点高 -yzhl888- ♀ 给 yzhl888 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 13:01:27

• Bingo! 每个学校面向的人群都不一样，也不好比 -60MPH- ♀ 给 60MPH 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 16:06:54

• 父母top0.1% 的属于自带护城河 -yzhl888- ♀ 给 yzhl888 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 13:05:25

• 那都是trustfund baby，人家上大学就是拿个学位 -fancyorange- ♀ 给 fancyorange 发送悄悄话 fancyorange 的博客首页 (128 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 13:29:05

• 怎么多数学校有60%以上的家庭收入在TOP 20% 的区间。 那家庭收入在50% 的收入家庭孩子，录取大学可能性非常小？ -jianchi9090- ♀ 给 jianchi9090 发送悄悄话 jianchi9090 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 08/10/2022 postreply 16:27:50

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