Also, from what you said about this kid, if he/she has problem getting into medical school, he/she is probably at the bottom half at P. He/she may be able to make upper 50% or even top 30% at state school. Top 30% at a state school is hardly a top student and probably has an even harder time getting into a medical school.
You know the difference between what I said:
"If he/she is not a top student at P then he/she is unlikely to be a top student at a good state university"
and the conclusion you drew from my atatement.
