I didn't watch the video, however the idea is the same

You are to be woken 1,000,000 time when Canada wins.

Now, you are woken up by someone...What are the chances...?

Think of it as a lottory bid, you will know what to do. 

 

所有跟帖： 

• 如果每次醒都能1对4下赌注，我当然说加拿大羸，但我被叫醒一百万次，就能改变原先硬币投出的1/2概率吗？ -露重烟微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 13:46:00

• No, you can not. But one must distinguish two cases: -中间小谢- ♂ (409 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 13:53:00

• 明白您的意思，但那是醒来的概率，不是硬币朝上的概率，不是吗？ -露重烟微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 14:14:00

• As part of the event they are no longer independent (case 2) -中间小谢- ♂ (110 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 14:19:51

• 是的，这也是一个我当初很困惑的点，让我一度转成了1/2和1/3派。也就是像您列的，认为问题的问法有歧义。 -露重烟微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 15:05:00

• 不过后来发现还是1/2，这里我先买个关子，看还有没有更多人想讨论的。 -露重烟微- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/10/2023 postreply 15:08:00