If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) of 2.5%, rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?
Fauci等人表示，如果我们假定无症状或症状轻微的病例数是报告病例数的几倍，则病死率可能大大低于1％。
这表明Covid-19的总体临床结果可能最终更类似于严重的季节性流感（病死率约为0.1％）或大流行性流感（与1957年和1968年的相似），而非一种类似于SARS或MERS的疾病，这两者的病死率分别为9％至10％和36％。
Fauci等人还指出，任何呼吸道病毒的传播效率都对遏制和缓解其暴发的策略研究具有重要意义。当前的研究表明，新冠病毒的基本传染数（R0）为2.2，这意味着平均每个感染者会将病毒传播给另外两个人。而在R0数字降至1.0以下之前，疫情暴发可能会继续蔓延。
https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/02/29/9183802.html
