首先声明,我不是川粉,也不是川黑。今年的大选是我在美国参加的第五次大选,也是最乱的一次。过去几次都是选举日当天就出结果,只有今年是一个例外。尤其是11月3日晚上几个州在川普领先的情况下突然同时停止计票,然后在半夜三更出现拜登曲线,拜登转败为胜,剩下的票竟然数了好几天的现象实在太诡异。虽然这不能作为法庭证据,但是,这种违背常理的情况实在不可思议,而且,至今为止,还没有人对几个州为何突然同时停止计票的事做出解释。我本来不关心政治,但是因为这次大选实在太离奇了,处于好奇,我在网上找到并下载了2016年和2020年各个县总统大选得票的数据,做了一些初步的统计和分析。有兴趣的人可以自己去网上搜索一下,Excel达到中级水平的就可以自己分析一下。以下是我统计的结果。我不做任何评论,大家可以自己根据数据思考判断。
本次大选,选票比上次增加接近两千八百四十九万张,约增加22%,民主党增加一千八百八十七万张(或30%),共和党增加一千三百零八万张(或21%)。每个州的选票都比2016年增加。以增加的百分比而言,AZ居首,增加了64%,约增加了一百三十二万张选票,而且增加的选票主要来自于Maricopa县(增加了八十六万七千张)。以增加的选票数而言,CA居首,一共增加了五百七十六万张选票,相当于增加了49%。以下是每个州的统计数据。我把增加比较显著的州用黄色highlight了。在用黄色highlight的19个州里,除了FL, TX, NC和UT之外,其他的15个州都是民主党获胜的州。
State Name |
2020 GOP Votes |
2020 DEM Votes |
2020 Total Votes |
2020 Winning Party |
2016 GOP Votes |
2016 DEM Votes |
2016 Total Votes |
2016 Winning Party |
Total Vote Increase by % |
Total Vote Increase by |
GOP Vote Increase by |
DEM Vote Increase by |
Increase in Votes DEM vs. GOP |
Alabama |
1,441,168 |
849,648 |
2,323,304 |
GOP |
1,306,925 |
718,084 |
2,078,165 |
GOP |
11.80% |
245,139 |
134,243 |
131,564 |
-2,679 |
Alaska |
189,892 |
153,405 |
391,346 |
GOP |
130,415 |
93,007 |
246,588 |
GOP |
58.70% |
144,758 |
59,477 |
60,398 |
921 |
Arizona |
1,661,686 |
1,672,143 |
3,387,326 |
DEM |
1,021,154 |
936,250 |
2,062,810 |
GOP |
64.21% |
1,324,516 |
640,532 |
735,893 |
95,361 |
Arkansas |
760,647 |
423,932 |
1,219,069 |
GOP |
677,904 |
378,729 |
1,108,615 |
GOP |
9.96% |
110,454 |
82,743 |
45,203 |
-37,540 |
California |
6,005,961 |
11,109,764 |
17,495,906 |
DEM |
3,841,134 |
7,230,699 |
11,733,523 |
DEM |
49.11% |
5,762,383 |
2,164,827 |
3,879,065 |
1,714,238 |
Colorado |
1,364,607 |
1,804,352 |
3,256,953 |
DEM |
1,137,455 |
1,212,209 |
2,564,185 |
DEM |
27.02% |
692,768 |
227,152 |
592,143 |
364,991 |
Connecticut |
715,291 |
1,080,680 |
1,824,280 |
DEM |
668,266 |
884,432 |
1,623,542 |
DEM |
12.36% |
200,738 |
47,025 |
196,248 |
149,223 |
Delaware |
200,603 |
296,268 |
504,010 |
DEM |
185,103 |
235,581 |
441,535 |
DEM |
14.15% |
62,475 |
15,500 |
60,687 |
45,187 |
District of Columbia |
18,586 |
317,323 |
344,356 |
DEM |
11,553 |
260,223 |
280,272 |
DEM |
22.86% |
64,084 |
7,033 |
57,100 |
50,067 |
Florida |
5,668,731 |
5,297,045 |
11,067,456 |
GOP |
4,605,515 |
4,485,745 |
9,386,750 |
GOP |
17.91% |
1,680,706 |
1,063,216 |
811,300 |
-251,916 |
Georgia |
2,461,854 |
2,473,633 |
4,997,716 |
DEM |
2,068,623 |
1,837,300 |
4,029,564 |
GOP |
24.03% |
968,152 |
393,231 |
636,333 |
243,102 |
Hawaii |
196,864 |
366,130 |
574,469 |
DEM |
128,815 |
266,827 |
428,825 |
DEM |
33.96% |
145,644 |
68,049 |
99,303 |
31,254 |
Idaho |
554,118 |
287,021 |
868,105 |
GOP |
407,199 |
189,677 |
688,235 |
GOP |
26.13% |
179,870 |
146,919 |
97,344 |
-49,575 |
Illinois |
2,446,891 |
3,471,915 |
6,038,850 |
DEM |
2,118,179 |
2,977,498 |
5,374,280 |
DEM |
12.37% |
664,570 |
328,712 |
494,417 |
165,705 |
Indiana |
1,729,852 |
1,242,495 |
3,033,198 |
GOP |
1,556,220 |
1,031,953 |
2,722,029 |
GOP |
11.43% |
311,169 |
173,632 |
210,542 |
36,910 |
Iowa |
897,672 |
759,061 |
1,690,871 |
GOP |
798,923 |
650,790 |
1,542,880 |
GOP |
9.59% |
147,991 |
98,749 |
108,271 |
9,522 |
Kansas |
758,100 |
558,669 |
1,349,567 |
GOP |
656,009 |
414,788 |
1,147,143 |
GOP |
17.65% |
202,424 |
102,091 |
143,881 |
41,790 |
Kentucky |
1,326,646 |
772,474 |
2,136,768 |
GOP |
1,202,942 |
628,834 |
1,922,218 |
GOP |
11.16% |
214,550 |
123,704 |
143,640 |
19,936 |
Louisiana |
1,255,776 |
856,034 |
2,148,062 |
GOP |
1,178,004 |
779,535 |
2,027,731 |
GOP |
5.93% |
120,331 |
77,772 |
76,499 |
-1,273 |
Maine |
359,899 |
430,473 |
813,740 |
DEM |
334,838 |
354,873 |
741,550 |
DEM |
9.74% |
72,190 |
25,061 |
75,600 |
50,539 |
Maryland |
976,414 |
1,985,023 |
3,037,030 |
DEM |
873,646 |
1,497,951 |
2,474,543 |
DEM |
22.73% |
562,487 |
102,768 |
487,072 |
384,304 |
Massachusetts |
1,167,202 |
2,382,202 |
3,631,402 |
DEM |
1,083,069 |
1,964,768 |
3,231,531 |
DEM |
12.37% |
399,871 |
84,133 |
417,434 |
333,301 |
Michigan |
2,649,852 |
2,804,040 |
5,539,302 |
DEM |
2,279,805 |
2,268,193 |
4,790,917 |
GOP |
15.62% |
748,385 |
370,047 |
535,847 |
165,800 |
Minnesota |
1,484,065 |
1,717,077 |
3,277,171 |
DEM |
1,322,891 |
1,366,676 |
2,916,404 |
DEM |
12.37% |
360,767 |
161,174 |
350,401 |
189,227 |
Mississippi |
756,764 |
539,398 |
1,315,178 |
GOP |
678,457 |
462,001 |
1,162,987 |
GOP |
13.09% |
152,191 |
78,307 |
77,397 |
-910 |
Missouri |
1,718,736 |
1,253,014 |
3,025,962 |
GOP |
1,585,753 |
1,054,889 |
2,775,098 |
GOP |
9.04% |
250,864 |
132,983 |
198,125 |
65,142 |
Montana |
343,602 |
244,786 |
605,750 |
GOP |
274,120 |
174,521 |
483,574 |
GOP |
25.27% |
122,176 |
69,482 |
70,265 |
783 |
Nebraska |
556,846 |
374,583 |
956,379 |
GOP |
485,819 |
273,858 |
805,638 |
GOP |
18.71% |
150,741 |
71,027 |
100,725 |
29,698 |
Nevada |
669,890 |
703,486 |
1,405,376 |
DEM |
511,319 |
537,753 |
1,122,990 |
DEM |
25.15% |
282,386 |
158,571 |
165,733 |
7,162 |
New Hampshire |
365,654 |
424,921 |
804,430 |
DEM |
345,789 |
348,521 |
731,553 |
DEM |
9.96% |
72,877 |
19,865 |
76,400 |
56,535 |
New Jersey |
1,883,274 |
2,608,335 |
4,564,234 |
DEM |
1,535,513 |
2,021,756 |
3,674,893 |
DEM |
24.20% |
889,341 |
347,761 |
586,579 |
238,818 |
New Mexico |
401,894 |
501,614 |
923,965 |
DEM |
315,875 |
380,724 |
783,127 |
DEM |
17.98% |
140,838 |
86,019 |
120,890 |
34,871 |
New York |
3,250,230 |
5,244,006 |
8,616,205 |
DEM |
2,640,570 |
4,143,874 |
7,046,175 |
DEM |
22.28% |
1,570,030 |
609,660 |
1,100,132 |
490,472 |
North Carolina |
2,758,773 |
2,684,292 |
5,524,801 |
GOP |
2,339,603 |
2,162,074 |
4,629,471 |
GOP |
19.34% |
895,330 |
419,170 |
522,218 |
103,048 |
North Dakota |
235,595 |
114,902 |
361,819 |
GOP |
216133 |
93526 |
336,968 |
GOP |
7.37% |
24,851 |
19,462 |
21,376 |
1,914 |
Ohio |
3,154,834 |
2,679,165 |
5,922,202 |
GOP |
2,771,984 |
2,317,001 |
5,325,395 |
GOP |
11.21% |
596,807 |
382,850 |
362,164 |
-20,686 |
Oklahoma |
1,020,280 |
503,890 |
1,560,699 |
GOP |
947,934 |
419,788 |
1,451,056 |
GOP |
7.56% |
109,643 |
72,346 |
84,102 |
11,756 |
Oregon |
958,448 |
1,340,383 |
2,374,321 |
DEM |
742,506 |
934,631 |
1,808,575 |
DEM |
31.28% |
565,746 |
215,942 |
405,752 |
189,810 |
Pennsylvania |
3,378,263 |
3,459,923 |
6,925,255 |
DEM |
2,912,941 |
2,844,705 |
5,970,107 |
GOP |
16.00% |
955,148 |
465,322 |
615,218 |
149,896 |
Rhode Island |
199,837 |
306,210 |
516,383 |
DEM |
179,421 |
249,902 |
450,121 |
DEM |
14.72% |
66,262 |
20,416 |
56,308 |
35,892 |
South Carolina |
1,385,103 |
1,091,541 |
2,513,329 |
GOP |
1,143,611 |
849,469 |
2,084,444 |
GOP |
20.58% |
428,885 |
241,492 |
242,072 |
580 |
South Dakota |
261,043 |
150,471 |
422,609 |
GOP |
227701 |
117442 |
370,047 |
GOP |
14.20% |
52,562 |
33,342 |
33,029 |
-313 |
Tennessee |
1,852,475 |
1,143,711 |
3,053,851 |
GOP |
1,517,402 |
867,110 |
2,484,691 |
GOP |
22.91% |
569,160 |
335,073 |
276,601 |
-58,472 |
Texas |
5,890,347 |
5,259,126 |
11,317,911 |
GOP |
4,681,590 |
3,867,816 |
8,903,237 |
GOP |
27.12% |
2,414,674 |
1,208,757 |
1,391,310 |
182,553 |
Utah |
865,140 |
560,282 |
1,488,289 |
GOP |
452,086 |
274188 |
984,957 |
GOP |
51.10% |
503,332 |
413,054 |
286,094 |
-126,960 |
Vermont |
112,704 |
242,820 |
367,428 |
DEM |
95,053 |
178,179 |
291,413 |
DEM |
26.08% |
76,015 |
17,651 |
64,641 |
46,990 |
Virginia |
1,962,430 |
2,413,568 |
4,460,524 |
DEM |
1,731,156 |
1,916,845 |
3,844,787 |
DEM |
16.01% |
615,737 |
231,274 |
496,723 |
265,449 |
Washington |
1,584,651 |
2,369,612 |
4,087,631 |
DEM |
1,129,120 |
1,610,524 |
2,957,942 |
DEM |
38.19% |
1,129,689 |
455,531 |
759,088 |
303,557 |
West Virginia |
545,382 |
235,984 |
794,652 |
GOP |
486,198 |
187,457 |
708,226 |
GOP |
12.20% |
86,426 |
59,184 |
48,527 |
-10,657 |
Wisconsin |
1,610,065 |
1,630,673 |
3,297,352 |
DEM |
1,409,467 |
1,382,210 |
2,944,620 |
GOP |
11.98% |
352,732 |
200,598 |
248,463 |
47,865 |
Wyoming |
193,559 |
73,491 |
276,765 |
GOP |
174,248 |
55,949 |
248,742 |
GOP |
11.27% |
28,023 |
19,311 |
17,542 |
-1,769 |
Grand Total |
74,208,196 |
81,264,994 |
158,433,557 |
DEM |
61,125,956 |
62,391,335 |
129,944,669 |
DEM |
21.92% |
28,488,888 |
13,082,240 |
18,873,659 |
5,791,419 |
今年的选举,民主党一共翻盘了5个州,包括AZ, GA, MI, PA和 WI ,而共和党未能翻盘任何一个州。我看了一下民主党翻盘的5个州大致的情况。
AZ: 2016年共和党赢了84904张选票,2020年输了10457张选票,民主党翻盘95361张。民主党的翻盘仅仅在Maricopa这一个县。这是AZ人口最多的县,人口约四百十七万,2016年只有一百二十万张选票,今年选票上升到二百零七万张,选票数增加了72%。民主党的选票从2016年的约五十五万张增加到一百零四万张。在这个县,2016年共和党赢了四万张,而今年输了四万五千张。这一个县决定了亚利桑那总统大选的结果。
GA: 2016年选票4029504张,2020年4997716张,增加了968152张。2016年共和党赢了231323张选票,2020年输了11779张,民主党翻盘243102张选票。乔治亚有多达159个县,人口多的县多为民主党控制。今年民主党翻盘完全来自于几个人口多的县,包括Cobb, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry 和 DeKalb县。
MI: 2016年选票4790917张,2020年5539302张,增加了748385张。2016年共和党赢了11612张选票,2020年输了154188张,民主党翻盘165800张选票。和乔治亚情况类似,密歇根州虽然县也比较多,但是人口多的县多为民主党控制。今年民主党翻盘也是来自于几个人口多的民主党控制的县,包括Wayne, Oakland和Kent County。
PA: 2016年选票5970107张,2020年6925255张,增加了955148张。2016年共和党赢了68236张选票,2020年输了81660张,民主党翻盘149896张选票。和乔治亚,密歇根的情况类似,人口多的县多为民主党控制。今年民主党翻盘主要来自于民主党占优势的人口多的三个县,包括Allegheny, Montgomery 和 Chester县。人口最多的Philadelphia县共和党的选票的增加超过了民主党选票的增加,但是仍然是民主党选票占绝对多数。
WI: 2016年选票2944620张,2020年3297352张,增加了352732张。2016年共和党赢了27257张选票,2020年输了20608张,民主党翻盘47865张选票。和乔治亚,密歇根的情况类似,威斯康星虽然有72个州,人口最多的2个县Milwaukee 和 Dane都是民主党占绝对多数,而这次翻盘主要靠这2个州。
这些选举的数据是否和人口增加的趋势相吻合,还需要做更多的分析。从个人感觉而言,加州和亚利桑那州选票的大幅增加不太合理。但是,这只是个人感觉,不做任何推论。