46,230 russian Losses in September: Trump and putin in Zugzwang
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
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Lozova — Donald Trump and vladimir putin find themselves in the chess position known as zugzwang: they must move, but every move they make worsens their position.
By announcing an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and russia, Trump aimed to discredit Zelensky by reproaching him for the strikes on the russian oil sector. Instead, he exposed himself to direct fire from the kremlin’s hawks, who, through Igor Ananskikh, first deputy chair of the state duma’s Energy Committee, cast doubt on this latest announcement. In doing so, he even managed to elicit the same response from russians and Ukrainians: neither side knew anything about the energy ceasefire he had invented to keep oil prices from rising further because of the war he unleashed in Iran. Indeed, less than an hour later, russian forces bombed Kharkiv’s Thermal Power Plant №5.
On the front line, the russian army is locked in the same bind. It sufferedmore than 46,000 casualties in September, bringing the summer total to 170,400 killed and wounded among its ranks. The official October estimates are even worse: bulletins published over the first ten days report another 16,970 casualties, confirming rising attrition that, extrapolated linearly at the same pace, would bring the monthly total to 52,607.
To be precise, russia’s June’s losses totaled 39,290 personnel. July’s were 42,860, August’s 42,020, and September’s 46,230, with September exceeding June by 17.7% and August by 10%, while the daily average over the first ten days of October is a further 10.1% higher than September’s.
The metaphor of zugzwang also helps describe the dilemmas Ukrainian pressure is imposing on the russian command, especially in the campaign against Donetsk’s fortress belt. Applied to its operational freedom, it has become one of the most useful ways to understand “Vivaldi”: it makes clear that the question is no longer how much territory Ukraine has retaken, but how much russia can hold on to, even as it continues burning through more than forty thousand men a month.
Paradoxically, russia’s elite and generals have learned very little from the chess tradition Garry Kasparov mastered. moscow must keep feeding its attacks and prevent further retreats at the same time, while restoring its logistics and rebuilding already exhausted units that often end up surrendering.
Having thwarted the russian plan to penetrate the rear of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk urban area, the Ukrainian army has forced the occupiers to rush in reinforcements, weakening other axes of advance. We have documentedthe russian rout at Komar from the field and its implications along the entire axis toward Velyka Novosilka, through Fedorivka, Vesele, Dniproenerhiia, Skudne, Novocheretuvate, and Novyi Komar. We are talking about a string of villages whose status, from moscow’s perspective, is now far worse than ‘gray’.
At the same time, we have explained how Ukrainian forces have pushed as far as Makiivka in Luhansk while consolidating their positions in Hrekivka, and how, farther north, they have done the same at Zapadne, advancing into the nearby forests in the Kupiansk sector. Even in the Vovchansk sector, things are now going badly for Moscow: Ukrainian defenders have cleared most of the contested areas, driving the occupiers north of the city’s ruins and securing better positions south of the Vovcha.
Faced with these difficulties, russia has responded by taking resources from these sectors, deemed lower priorities, to transfer additional elements toward Sloviansk–Kramatorsk, including unmanned systems units and special forces.
This is where Ukraine’s territorial recoveries gain significance beyond their size: they force the occupiers to redirect units, specialists, and equipment, undermining coordination across a much broader campaign.
The parallel with the impasse Trump has created for himself becomes even clearer here, because a pause in the offensive would itself cause further damage. Although it could reduce immediate infantry losses and allow reorganization, its effectiveness would depend on resupplying, evacuating, and training troops, as well as repairing vehicles and positions, without facing constant interdiction. An impossible task, since strikes on russian fuel tankers and vehicle columns in the rear are the hallmark of Operation Vivaldi.
The russians might still have the option of an orderly withdrawal to shorten the front, reduce exposure, and simplify resupply, but even that would require revising the entire campaign.
The choice, then, is how much to expend to preserve the original ambitions, and how far to scale them back to preserve the forces.
An interview published by The Times on September 10, 2026, helps explain this tension between military sustainability and the goals of the russian campaign. In it, Oleh Ivashchenko put russian recruitment at around 1,000–1,200 men a day. That is roughly 30,000–36,000 recruits a month. Comparing that scenario with the official September loss figures yields an arithmetic gap of 10,230–16,230. Applying the same recruitment rates to October would produce a monthly gap of 15,407–21,607 men.
The slaughter becomes even starker when set against mapping data that showed just 147.74 km² of russian territorial gains as early as September 20, against at least 972.56 km² liberated by the Ukrainian armed forces since the beginning of the year. That figure, as we have already written, could increase by a further 33% once additional gains from Operation “Vivaldi” are consolidated and disclosed.
In contrast to the russian propaganda approach, which claims more than 5,300 km² of territory captured in 2026, Ukraine’s cautious approach requires acknowledging that many of the recaptured areas added to the most widely used maps in September, as Vivaldi became publicly known, had already been retaken in previous months.
In this gap between announcements and reality, the leaders of two nuclear powers have staked what remains of their credibility on a ceasefire they must now make real without the means to do so, making it even clearer how little control they have over the outcomes they have already announced.
For both, the dilemma concerns the sustainability of the wars they have unleashed.
Every new russian bombardment proves Trump’s words false, while he continues to demand concessions from the country under attack and refuses to exert the pressure on the aggressor that his own Congress is calling for.For putin, scaling back his objectives means bearing the political cost of failed ambitions.
Their shared mistake was treating Ukraine as a pawn to move at their convenience. Ukrainians, for their part, keep choosing their own moves and alter the consequences for those who presume to decide on their behalf.
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九月份俄罗斯损失46,230人：川普与普京陷入进退维谷的境地
作者： Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
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洛佐瓦——唐纳德·川普和弗拉基米尔·普京发现自己陷入了国际象棋中所谓的“被迫走棋”（zugzwang）局面：他们必须采取行动，但无论采取什么行动，都会使自身处境进一步恶化。
川普通过宣布一项乌克兰与俄罗斯之间的能源停火协议，旨在通过指责泽连斯基对俄罗斯石油部门的打击来削弱其信用。然而，他却使自己直接暴露在克里姆林宫鹰派的炮火之下，这些鹰派通过国家杜马能源委员会第一副主席伊戈尔·阿南斯基赫公开对这一最新公告表示怀疑。他此行为甚至成功地从俄罗斯人和乌克兰人那里引出了同样的反应：双方都不知道他为了防止因他自己在伊朗发动的战争导致油价进一步上涨而凭空捏造的能源停火协议。事实上，不到一小时后，俄军就轰炸了哈尔科夫5号热电厂。
在前线上，俄罗斯军队也陷入了同样的困境。9月份，俄军伤亡超过46,000人，使其整个夏季总伤亡人数达到170,400人。10月份的官方估计更糟：战报显示前十天的伤亡是16,970人，证实了消耗战正在加剧。如果按同样的线性速度推算，该月的总伤亡人数将达到52,607人。
确切地说，俄罗斯6月份的损失总计为39,290人。7月份为42,860人，8月份为42,020人，9月份为46,230人。9月份的损失比6月份增加了17.7%，比8月份增加了10%，而10月份前十天的日平均伤亡人数比9月份又高出10.1%。
（图：我在乌克兰顿巴斯被乌军重新夺回的领土上拍摄了这张照片——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
“被迫走棋”的隐喻也有助于描述乌克兰给俄罗斯指挥部施加的压力，特别是在针对顿涅茨克堡垒地带的战役中。将其应用于作战自由度上，这已成为理解“维瓦尔第”行动最有用的概念之一：它明确表明，如今的问题已不再是乌克兰收复了多少领土，而是俄罗斯即使在每月消耗超过四万人的情况下，还能守住多少领土。
矛盾的是，俄罗斯的精英阶层和将军们从加里·卡斯帕罗夫所代表的国际象棋传统中几乎没学到什么。莫斯科必须在维持攻势和防止进一步撤退的同时，还要恢复其后勤并重建已经筋疲力尽、往往最终选择投降的部队。
乌克兰军队挫败了俄罗斯渗透斯洛维扬斯克-克拉马托尔斯城市群后方的计划，迫使俄占领者匆忙调遣增援部队，从而削弱了其他方向的攻势。我们已经在实地记录了俄军在科马尔的溃败，及这一失败对沿着通往大诺沃西尔卡的整个轴线，经由费多里夫卡、韦谢列、第聂伯能源、斯库德内、新切列图瓦特和新科马尔产生战线的影响。我们所说的一系列村庄，从莫斯科的角度来看，其处境现在远比“灰色地带”糟糕得多。
与此同时，我们还分析了乌克兰军队如何推进到卢甘斯克的马基夫卡，同时巩固了他们在赫雷基夫卡的阵地；以及在更北的扎帕德内，同样推进到库皮扬斯克地区附近的森林中。即使在沃夫昌斯克地区，莫斯科的情况现在也很糟糕：乌克兰守军已经清除了大部分交战区，将占领者赶出了城市废墟以北，并在沃夫恰河以南建立了更有利的阵地。
面对这些困难，俄罗斯的应对措施是从这些被认为次要方向的战区抽调资源，向斯洛维扬斯克-克拉马托尔斯克方向转移额外的兵力，包括无人系统部队和特种部队。
这就是乌克兰收复领土的意义超越其面积本身的地方：它们迫使俄占领者重新调配部队、专家和装备，破坏了整个更大规模战役的协调性。
（图片来源：© Terykon）
川普为自己制造的僵局与此处俄军面临的困境的平行之处，在这里变得更加清晰，因为进攻的暂停本身就会造成进一步的损害。虽然这可以减少直接的步兵损失并允许部队重组，但其有效性取决于在不受持续打击的情况下补给、撤离和训练部队，以及维修车辆和阵地。这是一项不可能完成的任务，因为对俄罗斯油罐车和后方车队的打击正是“维瓦尔第”核心任务。
俄罗斯人可能还有一种选择，即有序撤退以缩短战线、减少暴露并简化后勤补给，但即使是这样，也需要修改整个战役计划。
那么，选择在于：为了维持最初的野心需要消耗多少，以及为了保留兵力需要将这些野心缩减到何种程度。
2026年9月10日《泰晤士报》发表的一篇采访有助于解释军事可持续性与俄罗斯战争目标之间的这种紧张关系。在采访中，奥列格·伊瓦申科估计俄罗斯每天的招募人数约为1,000-1,200人，大约是每月30,000-36,000名新兵。将该情景与9月份的官方损失数据进行比较，得出的净减员10,230-16,230人。如果将同样的招募率应用于10月份，将产生每月15,407-21,607人的净减员。
如果再结合领土收益数据，这种杀戮性将更加鲜明。截止9月20日地图数据显示俄罗斯新增控制领土147.74平方公里，而自年初以来乌克兰武装部队解放的领土有至少972.56平方公里。正如我们已经报道过的那样，一旦“维瓦尔第”行动的其他收益得到巩固和披露，这一数字可能会再增加33%。
与声称在2026年占领了超过5,300平方公里领土的俄罗斯宣传叙事形成对比的是，随着“维瓦尔第”行动为公众所知，乌克兰的谨慎方法要求，承认许多9月份添加到最广泛使用的地图中的收复地区，实际上在之前几个月就已经被收复了。
（图片来源：© Terykon）
在公告与现实之间的巨大鸿沟中，两个核大国的领导人将他们仅存的信誉押注于一项停火协议上。然而，他们现在既无法实现它，也缺乏相应执行手段。者恰恰更加清晰的表明，他们对自己已经宣布的结果所拥有的控制力有多么微弱。
对于两人来说，困境都涉及他们所发动的战争的可持续性。
每一次新的俄罗斯轰炸都证明了川普的话是谎言，而他却继续要求被攻击的国家做出让步，并拒绝施加他自己的国会所要求的对侵略者的压力。对于普京来说，降低战争目标意味着要承担雄心失败的政治代价。
他们的共同错误在于把乌克兰当作一颗可以随意摆布的棋子。而乌克兰人则坚持选择自己的行动，并改变了那些自以为能替他们做决定的人所面对的结局。
（图：前方不远处，就是谢韦尔斯基顿涅茨河）
***
在1691天的战争中，我们从前线录制了300多段视频，并撰写了3000多篇文章——其中至少1600篇 为英文，1400篇为意大利文。
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我们正在更新筹款活动，感谢每一位加入我们、帮助修复俄罗斯破坏的人们。仅靠一家勇敢的报纸为我们每篇文章支付微薄稿酬以维持前线报道极为困难。因此，我们感激所有支持并信任我们使命的善良人们。
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