While The West Discusses, Russia Advances On The Battlefield
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
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Novomykolaivka – Capitalizing on favorable weather and an already overwhelming advantage in weapons, ammunition, and equipment – further exacerbated by the continuous and unhindered flow of material from its partners, especially China and North Korea, which no Ukrainian ally has been able to interrupt or compensate for – the Russian Armed Forces have launched three devastating offensives against Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Huliaypole, capitalizing on previously unforeseen results.
As confirmed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyj, on the front I am writing from, «the fighters of the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade of Ukraine were unable to withstand Russian pressure, ending in a gradual retreat». Despite reinforcements from the 5th Assault Brigade being only two streets away, those men were overwhelmed by a firestorm that left no escape.
The weather conditions in the places I report on for this newspaper are extremely harsh: storms dumping up to 30 centimeters of snow per night, constant fog, and arctic temperatures reaching -25 degrees Celsius.
Once again – and this is extremely serious – the Russian army was able to exploit these conditions because none of Ukraine’s partners had provided the artillery and counter-battery fire that could have contained attacks like the one that proved fatal last November, opening the way to Huliaypole.
The Russians repeated the same operational pattern, taking control of a Ukrainian command post and pressing forward again when Kyiv’s drones – the only (home-made) deterrent the Ukrainian Armed Forces have in abundance – were unable to fly. Soldiers from Ukraine’s 225th Assault Regiment attempted to recapture lost positions, but, as Syrskyj noted, «when territorial defense units retreat, this negatively impacts the stability of the entire defense».
Bitterly, the general explained that for over a month, his men pushed back the Russian occupiers without granting them any advantage, awaiting promised Western reinforcements that never arrived. During that time, discussions focused on an invisible peace, both now and in the future, diverting attention from the critical issues emerging on the ground to dubious post-war projects based on a legally and practically unsustainable peace plan.
Once again, DeepState’s maps are inaccurate, not to mention misleading. The situation in Huliaypole is far worse than initially projected. This remains the weakest point on the front, despite ample time – at least two months – to fill gaps that now fall entirely on Ukraine’s allies. It’s worth remembering that production resources and stocks exist, but delivery speed and the ability to meet actual needs at the front are insufficient.
It’s not the Russians firing more or Ukrainian consumption increasing, but Western political will that’s lacking.
In this context, the PURL mechanism has proven to be a tight noose around Kyiv’s neck, since it’s the Americans who dictate prices, timing, and rules after cashing in on their partners, using this as additional negotiating leverage.
Furious, Vladislav Voloshyn, the Southern Defense Forces’ spokesman, reported that «the operational situation in Huliaypole remains extremely difficult». In Pokrovsk, Ukrainian air defense systems were only partially successful in containing a large-scale Russian assault, during which the occupiers advanced beyond the lines from which they had been barely repelled in the previous days.
Tension is palpable in the 46th Ukrainian Brigade’s area of responsibility:
«With superhuman efforts, we pushed the katsaps back almost 15 kilometers. For two months, we have been begging for adequate weapons so as not to nullify our sacrifices.After many meetings, what we have in hand are draft reconstruction plans and security guarantees that are worthless today, given that the rules-based order has collapsed and NATO itself is on the verge of implosion» – a non-commissioned officer snapped, comparing recent international summits to those where the reconstruction of Mariupol’ was discussed while the city was being razed to the ground.
As part of the same attack, conducted with tanks and other armored vehicles, Russian troops also managed to consolidate their positions in nearby Myrnohrad, to the point that almost half the city is under their control.
As I wrote a week ago from the equally battered Mykhailivka, the Kremlin’s strategy remains unchanged: to rely on the fact that while Western democracies debate, its troops advance. Two months ago, I was in Huliaypole on the very night the Russians launched their offensive against Uspenivka. Taking advantage of the fog, which blinds FPV drones, I joined a convoy and immediately explained that Ukraine lacked the necessary artillery and counter-battery fire, and that the Kremlin would use diplomatic maneuvers to gain an advantage it had been unable to achieve on the ground for years.
All the evidence today confirms that analysis: by exploiting the political leverage offered by Washington, the art of stirring up discussion among Westerners has produced concrete results for Moscow, which has managed to block supplies to Kyiv while attention was diverted to fanciful postwar ruminations.
当西方讨论时，俄罗斯在战场上推进
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
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在过去的三年里，我们一直在乌克兰战争的各个前线做独立报道，自大规模冲突以来…
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诺沃米哥拉伊夫卡 – 利用有利的天气以及在武器、弹药和装备上占据的绝对优势——这优势更因来自其伙伴，特别是中国和北朝鲜的持续和不受阻碍的物资支援而进一步加剧，而乌克兰的盟友无法中断俄方支援或弥补乌方短缺——俄罗斯武装部队已对波克罗夫斯克、米尔诺赫拉德和胡利亚波尔发动了三次毁灭性的进攻，充分利用了之前未曾预见的成果。
正如乌克兰武装部队总司令亚历山大·西尔斯基将军所确认的，我正在写作的前线，乌克兰第102国土防卫旅的的战士无法抵挡俄军压力，最终逐渐撤退。尽管来自第5 突击旅的增援距离仅有两条街的距离，但这些士兵还是被一场火风暴淹没，无法逃脱。（图：我在乌克兰的一个积雪覆盖的水井附近 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
我为本报现场报道的地区天气条件极为恶劣：暴风雪每晚积雪达30厘米，持续的雾霾，以及达到-25摄氏度的北极气温。
再次强调——形势及其严峻——俄罗斯军队能够利用这些条件，因为乌克兰的盟友并没有提供能遏制攻击的火炮和反炮火，像去年11月那样可造成致命后果的攻击，为胡利亚波尔打开了道路。
俄军重复了相同的作战模式，占领了乌克兰指挥所，并在基辅的无人机——乌克兰武装部队唯一拥有的（自制）充足的威慑力量——无法飞行时再次推进。乌克兰第225突击团的士兵试图收复失去的阵地，但正如西尔斯基所指出的：“当国土防卫单位撤退时，这会对整个防线的稳定性产生了负面影响。”
将军悲痛地解释说，在过去超过一个多月的时间里，他的士兵们抵挡住俄罗斯侵略者的进攻，没让他们占任何优势；同时等待着西方承诺的增援，但这些增援从未到达。在此期间，讨论聚焦于一个无论是现在还是未来都看不见的和平，致使将注意力从前线出现的关键问题转移到基于法律和实用性都难以维持的和平计划的可疑战后项目上。
（图：这张照中在我身后的两栋住宅楼几天前遭到了俄军的袭击——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
再强调一次，DeepState 的地图不准确，更不用说具有误导性。胡里亚波列的情况远比最初预想的要糟糕。尽管有足够的时间——至少两个月——来填补现在完全依赖乌克兰盟友的空缺，这仍然是前线最薄弱的环节。值得一提的是，生产资源和库存是存在的，但交付速度以及满足前线实际需求的能力远远不够。
这并不是俄罗斯人的火力增强或乌克兰的消耗增加，而是缺乏西方的政治意愿。
在这种情况下，PURL机制（乌克兰优先要求清单）被证明已成为基辅的紧箍咒，因为正是美国人在收取合伙人费用后，决定价格、时机和规则，并以此作为进一步谈判筹码。
（图：Alla站在受到严重攻击的乌克兰舒斯特村的墓地 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
愤怒的南方防卫部队发言人弗拉基斯拉夫·沃洛辛报告称：“胡利亚波尔的作战形势仍然极其严峻”。在波克罗夫斯克，乌克兰的防空系统在遏制大规模俄罗斯攻击方面仅部分成功，在这次攻击中，俄军侵略者突破了之前勉强抵挡的防线。
在乌克兰第46旅的责任区域内，紧张气氛非常明显：
“凭借异乎寻常的努力，我们将那些‘卡察普’（俄罗斯人）打回了近15公里。两个月以来，我们一直在乞求足够的武器，以免让我们的牺牲化为乌有。在经过多次会议后，我们手中得到的仅是草拟的重建计划和安全保障，而这些在今天毫无价值，因为基于规则的秩序已经崩溃，北约本身也正处于崩溃的边缘。”一名士官愤怒地说道，他将最近的国际峰会与讨论马里乌波尔重建的会议进行了类比，而当时这座城市正在被夷为平地。
（图：Alla在乌克兰苏梅地区基亚尼察一栋被炮弹击中的房子里 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在同一次攻击中，俄军利用坦克和其他装甲车辆，成功巩固了在附近米尔诺赫拉德的阵地，几乎将该市的一半置于他们的控制之下。
正如我一周前在同样遭受重创的米哈伊利夫卡所写，克里姆林宫的战略没有改变：利用西方民主国家的辩论的时机，而让其部队趁机推进。两个月前，我在胡里亚波列，正是在俄军对乌斯彭尼夫卡发起攻击的那个晚上。利用雾霭使 FPV 无人机失效的机会，我加入了一支车队，并立即指出，乌克兰缺乏必要的火炮和反炮火，而克里姆林宫将利用外交手段来获取多年来未能在战场上取得的优势。
今天所有的证据都证实了这一分析：通过利用华盛顿提供的政治杠杆，挑起西方人之间讨论的艺术为莫斯科带来了具体成果，俄罗斯成功地阻断了对基辅的支援，同时把人们的注意力转向了那些虚幻的战后幻想上。
（图：Alla在乌克兰克里维一所被俄罗斯摧毁的大学内 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
