轮换责任确保战争时期的民主

原文链接:https://medium.com/@giorgioprovinciali/rotating-responsibilities-guarantee-democracy-in-times-of-war-df929f889ecb?sk=f8371a7281d398b5c2c450d128954aea

 

Rotating Responsibilities Guarantee Democracy in Times of War

By:  Giorgio Provinciali

Live from Ukraine

Chernivtsi – The recent cabinet reshuffle announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky is neither a cosmetic maneuver nor a sign of instability. Rather, it is a necessary and rational choice in a country that has been fighting a war for 12 years, which escalated into all-out aggression 4 years ago, under martial law, without the constitutional right to hold elections or otherwise renew the state’s leadership.

In this context, rotating responsibilities is not only useful: it is vital. It helps prevent excessive concentration of power, reduce the risk of institutional personalization, and maintain a functional balance among the civilian, military, and intelligence apparatuses.

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Photo source: Mmykhailo Fedorov on Instagram

The appointment of Mykhailo Fedorov as Defense Minister marks only an apparent discontinuity. Fedorov was the architect of the digitalization of the Ukrainian state during wartime: transparent military procurement, digital command systems, drones, interoperability with NATO, and cyber resilience. Appointing him to Defense means transforming that ministry into a technological machine capable of accelerating production, logistics, traceability, and industrial integration. In modern war, this is real power, not theoretical.

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Kyrylo Budanov and me -cooyrigted photo 

Kyrylo Budanov’s move from the HUR military intelligence to head the Office of the President is a move of the highest strategic profile. Budanov is not a politician, but he is the man who, more than any other, has demonstrated an understanding of the times, limitations, and vulnerabilities of the Russian Federation. His transfer does not militarize the presidency: it brings it even more into line with the reality of the conflict. The fact that he appeared in uniform on his first day of service is not folklore.It sends a message: the approach to war cannot be suspended by changing offices. At his debut in Paris yesterday, Budanov immediately established his new role – an extremely important one, for the reasons I explained in these pagesfollowing Andriy Yermak’s resignation – by securing strategic clusters within the Defense Tech Forces, the technological forces created at the direct instigation of President Zelensky and coordinated by his office through the Ministry of Strategic Industries; the Center for Defense Innovations; the Brave1 platform; and the Presidential Office for Critical Technologies. The fact that all these structures now report politically to Budanov bodes well for priorities, access, flows, political protection, and the security of Fire Point, a key defense company testing new weapon systems with unprecedented ranges, ensuring rapid maneuverability, secrecy, and freedom of development. Zelensky rightly wanted an experienced military man with top-level special services knowledge like his own to fill that role, so much so that he appointed him a member of the National Security Council.

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An article edited by the Italian newspaper ”La Repubblica”, reporting Denis Kapustin’s death – photo source and credits: ”La Repubblica“

The story of Denis Kapustin (founder and commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps fighting against Moscow as part of the Timur unit, coordinating with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) also fits into this picture. This was the last masterpiece of the HUR under Budanov’s leadership. For weeks, various media outlets – including numerous Italian newspapers – announced his death, taking it for granted and attributing it to alleged Russian collaborators. In reality, it was a masterful operation conducted by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Intelligence Directorate, which orchestrated the whole thing by faking the death of Putin’s critic with two fake kamikaze drones sent to the car Kapustin was in, thus deceiving even the Russian secret services, who ended up paying a half-million-dollar reward to the Ukrainians.

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Oleh Ivashchenko – photo source: Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine

Budanov was replaced at the head of military intelligence by Oleh Ivashchenko, previously head of foreign intelligence. This choice ensures continuity, not disruption. Ivashchenko is intimately familiar with joint operations, Western partners, and the most sensitive dossiers. In times of war, intelligence cannot afford gaps or apprenticeships.

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Dmytro Kuleba – photo source: Standsrd

Former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is also expected to assume new institutional roles. This reflects the strategic repurposing of one of Ukraine’s most recognizable and respected figures internationally. Kuleba is a key asset for political and diplomatic coordination with the EU, NATO, and the G7, especially as the conflict enters a phase of military-industrial reconstruction in which negotiating skills are crucial.

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Vasyl Maliuk – photo source: Censor.net

Vasyl Maliuk’s resignation from the leadership of the Security Service of the SBU does not indicate a lack of confidence but rather a reorganization. Malyuk led that key sector through its most delicate phase, transforming it from a post-Soviet structure into a fully operational counterintelligence service. He will now be assigned to highly sensitive operational special assignments, while the leadership of the SBU will be transferred to an already proven internal figure capable of ensuring continuity and institutional cleanliness.

Zelensky also appointed Alexander Poklada as first deputy head of the SBU, followed by Andriy Tupikov (who had previously headed the SBU’s Counterintelligence Department) and Denis Kilinnik (also appointed head of the SBU’s Counterterrorism Center).

The diplomatic rotation also includes: new deputy prime ministers responsible for defense production; rotations within economic ministries to accelerate industrial conversion; and strengthened coordination between the government and the General Staff.

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Alla reporting from Marhanets’, Ukraine -copyrighted photo 

All decisions are guided by a clear principle: no role should become permanent without elections. Such rotations guarantee democracy in times of war. Therefore, Zelensky’s cabinet reshuffle does not weaken Ukraine. On the contrary, it reduces the risk of power crystallization, strengthens operational efficiency, maintains a balance between civilian control and military needs, and preserves the state’s legitimacy in the absence of elections. The only possible form of renewal under martial law.

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Me in the rehabilitation center of Chernihiv, Ukraine – copyrighted photo 

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轮换责任确保战争时期的民主  

作者:Giorgio Provinciali

翻译:旺财球球

乌克兰前线报道

切尔尼夫齐 -总统弗拉基米尔·泽伦斯基最近宣布的内阁重组既不是一种表面上的举动,也不是不稳定的迹象。相反,这是在一个已经打了12年仗的国家做出的必要和理性的选择,这场战争在4年前升级为全面侵略,在戒严法下,国家没有宪法权利举行选举或更新领导层。  

在这样的背景下,轮换责任不仅是有益的,甚至是至关重要的。它有助于防止权力过度集中,降低机构个性化的风险,并维持平民、军事和情报机构之间的功能平衡。

(图片来源:Instagram上的Mmykhailo Fedorov)

米哈伊洛·费多罗夫被任命为国防部长仅仅是表面上的不连续。费多罗夫是在战争时期乌克兰国家数字化的架构师:透明的军事采购、数字指挥系统、无人机、与北约的互操作性,以及网络韧性。任命他为国防部长意味着将该部门转变为一个能够加速生产、物流、可追溯性和工业整合的技术机器。在现代战争中,这是真正的实力,而不是理论。

(图:Kyrylo Budanov和我——版权所有,Giorgio Provinciali)

基里洛·布达诺夫从军队情报局转到总统办公室是一个战略意义重大的举动。布达诺夫不是政治家,但他是最能理解俄罗斯联邦的时代、局限性和脆弱性的人。他的转任不会使总统职位军事化:反而使其更加贴近冲突的现实。他在上任第一天就身穿军装并非民间传说,它传达了一个信息:对战争的态度不能因职务的变化而中断。昨天在巴黎的首次亮相中,布达诺夫通过确保国防技术部队内的战略集群立即确立了自己的新角色——一个极其重要的角色,原因正如我在安德烈·叶尔马克辞职后在本刊所解释的那样;这些技术部队是在泽伦斯基总统的直接倡导下成立的,并通过他的办公室协调战略工业部、国防创新中心、Brave1平台以及关键技术总统办公室等机构。

 

这些结构如今行政上都向布达诺夫汇报,预示着优先事项、渠道、流程、政治保护和“火点”公司的安全性——这是一家关键的国防公司,正在测试具有前所未有射程的新武器系统,确保快速机动性、保密性和开发自由——来说都是一个积极的信号。泽伦斯基理所当然地希望找一个像他一样拥有高级特勤知识的经验丰富的军事人才来胜任此角色,因此他任命他为国家安全委员会成员。

(图:由意大利报纸《La Repubblica》编辑的一篇文章,报道了丹尼斯·卡普斯廷的死亡——图片来源和来源:《La Repubblica》)

丹尼斯·卡普斯丁(反对莫斯科的俄罗斯志愿军创始人和指挥官,隶属于蒂穆尔部队,并与乌克兰国防部协调)的故事也融入了这一全景。这是乌克兰军事情报局在布达诺夫领导下的最新一件杰作。几周内,卡普斯丁的死被多个媒体(包括许多意大利报纸)报道,并将其视为事实,归因于所谓的俄罗斯合作者。实际上,这是乌克兰国防部情报总局进行的一次精妙行动,伪装了普京批评者的死亡,并用两架假自杀无人机袭击卡普斯丁乘坐的汽车,最终欺骗了俄罗斯情报机构,导致他们向乌克兰支付了50万美元的悬赏。

(图:Oleh Ivashchenko – 图片来源:乌克兰外部情报局)

布达诺夫在军事情报局的继任者是奥列赫·伊瓦申科,他之前是外部情报局的负责人。这个选择确保了连续性,而非破坏。伊瓦申科对联合行动、西方伙伴及最敏感的档案非常了解。在战争时期,情报工作不能容许出现空白或学徒期。

(图:Dmytro Kuleba – 图片来源:Standsrd)

前外长德米特里·库列巴也预计将担任新的机构职务。这反映了乌克兰一位在国际上最具辨识度和受尊重人物之一的战略重新定位。库列巴是与欧盟、北约和G7进行政治和外交协调的关键资产,特别是在冲突进入军事工业重建阶段时,谈判技能变得至关重要。

(图:Vasyl Maliuk – 照片来源:Censor.net)

瓦西尔·马柳克辞去SBU安全局领导职务并不表示缺乏信心,而是一种重组。马柳克在最关键的阶段领导了这一关键领域,将其从后苏联结构转变为一个完全运作的反情报机构。他将被分配到高度敏感的特种任务中,而SBU的领导权将转交给一位已经证明能力的内部人士,能够确保连续性和机构的

瓦西尔·马柳克辞去乌克兰安全局(SBU)领导职务并不意味着缺乏信心,而是一种重组。马柳克领导这一关键部门经过了最为微妙的阶段,将其从一个后苏联结构转变为一个全面运作的反情报机构。他将被分配到高度敏感的特种任务中,而SBU的领导权将转交给一位已经证明其能力的内部人士,以确保连续性和机构的清晰性。

泽伦斯基还任命亚历山大·波克拉达为SBU的第一副局长,随后是安德烈·图皮科夫(曾担任SBU反情报部门负责人)和丹尼斯·基林尼克(也被任命为SBU反恐中心的负责人)。  

外交轮换还包括:负责国防生产的新副总理;经济部内部的轮换,以加快工业转型;以及加强政府与总参谋部之间的协调。  

(图:Alla在乌克兰马尔哈涅茨现场报道——版权所有,Giorgio Provinciali)

所有决策遵循一个明确的原则:没有选举,任何角色都不应成为永久性职位。这种轮换在战争时期保障了民主。因此,泽伦斯基的内阁重组并未削弱乌克兰。相反,它降低了权力固化的风险,加强了操作效率,维持了平民控制与军事需求之间的平衡,并在缺乏选举的情况下,维护了国家的合法性。这是在戒严法下唯一可能的更新形式。

(图:我在乌克兰切尔尼戈夫康复中心 ——版权所有,Giorgio Provinciali)

 

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