Falsified War
By：Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Kostiantynivka – Former US military officer Daniel Driscoll, appointed Secretary of the Army by Donald Trump, has tried to persuade Europeans to accept Russia’s plan to surrender Ukraine (presented by his administration as «of peace»), explaining that «the Kremlin’s war machine produces enough long-range missiles to build up sufficient stockpiles not only to deliver devastating blows on Ukraine, but also to cross its borders».
According to Driscoll, Ukraine and its allies should reluctantly agree to surrender because «Russian victory is inevitable». The only front where the Russians are truly making gains is information. Or rather, disinformation, because from the persistent rhetoric of the White House – now openly aligned with the Kremlin – to the ‘news’ that millions of users scroll through daily on social media, it’s clear what direction the situation has taken.
Even Vladimir Putin subtly admitted it yesterday when – referring to the ‘Witkoff leaks’ – he reminded that «Westeners have to learn how to spy (i.e., lie)». And there’s no contest. Russian propaganda has managed to infiltrate a multitude of Western media outlets, taking advantage of the decreasing number of correspondents on the ground and that the narrative being spread is even convenient for many Western governments. Just like in 2014, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine was dismissed as a ‘civil war’: a local issue, to be resolved internally.
Browsing the Italian press review is a chilling experience.
The fall of Pokrovsk has been announced hundreds of times, as have those of Toretsk, Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, and now Huliaypole. The reality is that the former is located 50 kilometers from where the Russian army was stopped 11 years ago, the latter a dozen kilometers away, and Russian attempts to seize these areas have been ongoing for nearly two years now. Just as the Russians are bogged down in Vovchansk and the central-eastern sector of Chasiv Yar. From Huliaypole, in the past few hours, the Ukrainian General Staff finally announced what we described from the field days ago:«The Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to rapidly erect new defense lines at Novouspenivke», first with one battalion of the 102nd Brigade and then with reinforcements from the 225th Motorized Infantry Regiment.
Were we prophets? No. We were just present. As on each of the fronts mentioned, while from afar people were writing about it inappropriately. For so long that we knew how to navigate not only these roads but also the tunnels.
Providing information in wartime is a serious matter.
Many Italian tabloids have reported the Donbas front as having collapsed so many times that it raises doubts about whether it still exists. We’ve been reporting from various parts of this long bastion for weeks, and even before that, for months and years of war. As happened a few hours ago in Pokrovsk and Huliajpole, sometimes the reality we describe live isn’t immediately reflected on the maps, but the facts prove us right. This time too, our assessments were correct, so much so that they were appreciated and cited by leading analysts and think tanks. We have no merit other than being here. Continuously, for nearly 1,400 days.
The Russian narrative has been pushing forward much earlier and very strongly, offering today – as it has for almost 12 years – a convenient interpretation of events for Western governments, perfectly aligned with that advocated by Washington’s emissaries: Ukraine is short of manpower.
Having thus circumscribed the problem, those media outlets that – more or less knowingly – promote Russian propaganda offer governments an excuse to wash their hands of the matter, resolving the issue by advising Zelensky to mobilize the 18 – 24 age group.
But it’s clear that the problem lies elsewhere. As American analyst
observed from Ukraine, the Ukrainian government even allowed those young people to leave the country.
Are they in Kyiv going crazy? No. They simply have a clearer vision of the war than those who write about it from armchairs or, at best, from Ukrainian hotels and restaurants.
As The Dupuy Institute notes, Ukraine’s ground forces total around 575,000 soldiers: half a million AFU, 30,000 marines, and 45,000 airborne troops. Including the Territorial Defense Forces and the National Guard significantly increases the overall number.
In our travels across the country – from the western regions to those bordering Belarus and Transnistria, passing through its inland cities, in Bessarabia and on the Black Sea, but especially here in Donbas – we have repeatedly confirmed these estimates, reported in the 2025 edition of The Military Balance.
For the Russian Federation, the combined ground forces, marines, PMCs, and airborne troops in Ukraine total 594,000. This figure is declining, given that previous reports (The Dupuy Institute, The Military Balance 2025, Mediazona/Meduza, RUSI, CNA, just to name a few) indicated around 700,000. Both sides recruit 30,000 men per month, but Moscow leaves many more on the field. Due to deaths and serious injuries, Russian irreversible losses are now nearing 1,200,000, and the toll pace is a thousand a day.
Ukraine, which is 28.3 times smaller than Russia but has a population just four times smaller, has been regularly conscripting men for almost four years. Russia hasn’t. So much so that it has had to recruit volunteers from over 40 countries.
Due to the abysmal losses, Moscow has been forced to deploy reserve forces right here in Pokrovsk.
You just need to be here to understand that.
What is truly overwhelming, however, is Russia’s dominance in firepower. As we confirmed in all our latest dispatches, at an estimated ratio of approximately 1.8:1, despite having only 20% more men, the Russians fire 80% more rounds.
And we’re only talking about artillery and counter-battery fire.
We discussed the statistics on high-explosive drones, glide bombs, and various types of missiles yesterday: the numbers overwhelmingly favor the Russians. These Ukrainian shortcomings – known and longstanding – clearly rest on the West’s shoulders.
Faced with the disengagement of many of Ukraine’s military partners, we see its unworthy justification emerge, fueled by the Kremlin narrative: «Ukraine is short on manpower and must mobilize more.»
Translated: make do.
THANKS TO ALL WHO BACK US IN THESE HARD TIMES
感谢所有在这段艰难时期支持我们的人
帮我们购买无人机探测器
在过去的三年里，作为自由撰稿人，我们一直在乌克兰战争的所有前线进行报道，自从大规模…
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虚假战争
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
乌克兰前线报道
科斯季安季诺夫卡——前美国军官丹尼尔·德里斯科尔，曾被唐纳德·川普任命为陆军部长，试图说服欧洲人接受俄罗斯的乌克兰投降计划（川普政府将其称为“和平计划”），并解释说：“克里姆林宫的战争机器生产能够足够多的远程导弹，不仅可以对乌克兰造成毁灭性打击，还可以越过其边界。”
德里斯科尔认为，乌克兰及其盟友应该勉强同意投降，因为“俄罗斯的胜利是不可避免的”。俄罗斯真正取得进展的唯一战线是信息战。或者更确切地说，是虚假信息，因为从白宫的持续言论—现在公开与克里姆林宫沆瀣一气—到数百万用户每天在社交媒体上浏览的“新闻”，可以清楚地看出局势的发展方向。
甚至弗拉基米尔·普京昨天也含蓄地承认了这一点，他提到“维特科夫泄密事件”时提醒道：“西方人必须学会如何进行间谍活动（即，撒谎）。”而且毫无争议。俄罗斯的宣传已经成功渗透到众多西方媒体，利用了在前线越来越少记者的机会，且传播的叙述对许多西方政府来说也是便利的。就像2014年，当俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵被视为“内战”：一个地方性问题，应该内部解决。
（图：描述最不糟糕立场的一家意大利报纸情况称：“疲惫的士兵，少量的坦克和战斗机：顿巴斯前线正在崩溃”（注意‘顿巴斯’是按照俄语音译的）——图片来源，“La Repubblica” X频道）
浏览意大利媒体的评论是一种令人不安的体验。
波克罗夫斯克的沦陷已经被宣布了数百次，托雷茨克、沃夫昌斯克、查西夫雅尔，甚至是如今的霍利扬波列也一样。现实是，波克罗夫斯克距离俄罗斯军队11年前被阻止的地方有50公里，而霍利扬波列则相距十几公里，俄罗斯试图夺这些地区的行动已经持续近两年。正如俄军在沃夫昌斯克和查西夫雅尔的中东部地区陷入困境一样，从霍利扬波列，在过去的几个小时里，乌克兰总参谋部终于宣布了我们几天前现场描述的情况：“乌克兰防卫部队成功迅速在诺沃乌斯佩尼夫卡建立了新的防线”，最初由第102旅的一个营参与，随后得到225摩托化步兵团的增援。
我们是先知吗？不是。我们只是身处其中。正如在每一个提到的前线上，那些远在千里之外的人们却在对其进行不适当的报道。经历了这么久，我们不仅知道如何在这些道路上行进，对那些隧道也非常熟悉了。
在战争时期提供信息是一个严肃的问题。
许多意大利小报反复报道称，顿巴斯前线已经崩溃，以至于让人怀疑它是否依然存在。我们在这个漫长堡垒的不同地方进行了数周、数月、数年战争的报道，甚至在此之前。就像几个小时前在波克罗夫斯克和霍利扬波列所发生的一样，有时我们现场描述的现实并未立即反映在地图上，但事实证明我们是对的。这一次也一样，我们的评估依然准确，以至于得到了头部分析师和智库的赞赏和引用。我们唯一功劳就是一直在这里（前线），已经近1400天。
俄罗斯的叙事早已强势推进，今天——正如近12年来一样——更是向西方政府提供了一种便利的事件解读，完美符合华盛顿特使所倡导的论点：乌克兰缺乏兵力。
通过这样界定问题，那些或多或少明知故犯地甘愿为俄罗斯宣传的媒体为政府提供了一个推卸责任的借口，建议泽连斯基征兵18至24岁的人群来解决这个问题。
但显然，问题出在别处。正如美国分析师迪伦·科姆贝里克在乌克兰观察到的，乌克兰政府甚至允许那些年轻人离开该国。
他们在基辅发癫吗？当然不是。只是他们对战争的认知显然比那些坐在椅子上写作或者顶多在乌克兰酒店和餐厅里写作的人更清晰。
（图片来源：TopLeadEU）
正如杜普伊研究所所指出的，乌克兰的地面部队总数约为575,000名士兵：其中包括50万名武装部队（AFU）、30,000名海军陆战队员和45,000名空降部队。如果将国土防卫部队和国民警卫队也计算在内，总人数将大幅增加。
在我们穿越全国的旅途中——从西部地区到与白俄罗斯和德涅斯特河沿岸接壤的地区，途经其内陆城市、贝萨拉比亚及黑海，尤其是在顿巴斯地区这里——我们多次确认了这些估算，这些数据在2025年版的《军事平衡》中有报道。
对于俄罗斯联邦来说，驻扎在乌克兰的综合地面部队、海军陆战队、私人军事承包商（PMC）和空降部队总数为594,000人。这个数字正在下降，考虑到之前的报道（如杜普伊研究所、2025年《军事平衡》、Mediazona/Meduza、RUSI、CNA等）显示约为700,000人。双方每月征兵人数均在30,000名，但莫斯科在战场上留下了人数要多得多。由于死亡和严重受伤，目前俄罗斯的不可逆损失接近120万人，每天的伤亡人数高达千人。
俄罗斯的面积是乌克兰的28.3倍，但人口仅是乌的四倍。乌克兰几乎已经持续征兵近四年。而俄罗斯尚未这样做，以至于不得不从40多个国家招募志愿者。
由于损失惨重，莫斯科被迫在波克罗夫斯克这里部署预备役部队。
你只需要到这里来就能理解这一点。
（图：这就是俄罗斯联邦如何摧毁乌克兰民用基础设施的——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
然而，真正压倒性的，是俄罗斯在火力上的优势。正如我们在所有最新的报道中确认的那样，双方的火力比约为1.8:1，尽管俄罗斯兵力仅多出20%，但发射的炮弹数量却多出80%。
而我们仅谈论的是火炮和反炮火。
昨日我们讨论了高爆无人机、滑翔炸弹和各种类型导弹的统计数据：这些数据显示了俄罗斯的明显优势。这些乌克兰的不足早已为人所知却没有解决，显然是西方所担负的责任。
（图：战略和国际研究中心（CSIS）的这张图表极大地解释了当前形势——数据和图形由战略和国际研究中心（CSIS）提供）
（图片来源：TopLeadEU）
面对许多乌克兰军事伙伴的撤离，我们看到一种不光彩的理由浮出水面，这种理由是由克里姆林宫的叙事所推动的：“乌克兰缺乏兵力，必须动员更多。”
翻译过来就是：将就吧。
（图：我在乌克兰顿巴斯的战区 – 版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
