本周还有更多相同的事情：乌克兰加强了无人机行动，进行一些引人注目的袭击或恐怖表演，以控制媒体的看法并保持自己的活力和相关性。More of the same this week: Ukraine has intensified its drone campaign to carry out some headline-grabbing strike or terror stunt to manage media perceptions and keep themselves looking viable and relevant.
昨晚对俄罗斯普斯科夫附近的克雷斯蒂机场进行的新一轮袭击是这些努力中的最新一次，更不用说对布良斯克、顿涅茨克的持续袭击、试图登陆克里米亚以及许多其他毫无军事价值的此类噱头。A new strike on Russia’s Kresti airfield near Pskov last night was the latest in these efforts, not to mention continual attacks on Bryansk, Donetsk, attempted landings on Crimea, and many other such stunts which have no military value whatsoever.
但让我们简单地谈谈普斯科夫罢工，因为它引发了许多通常的咬牙切齿和“爱国者”的愤怒。该机场停泊着俄罗斯的伊尔76运输机。最新报告称，总共有 4 处以上在袭击中受损，其中 2 处可能被摧毁，如以下视频所示：But let’s talk about the Pskov strike briefly, as it has generated a lot of the usual gnashing of teeth and ‘patriot’ outrage. The airfield houses Russia’s Il-76 transport planes. The most up to date report claims upwards of 4 total were damaged in the strikes, with 2 of them potentially destroyed, as the following videos show:
然而，今天的新西方卫星照片似乎显示几乎没有损坏：However, new Western satellite photos from today appear to show little to no damage:
首先，让我们先抛开维基百科给出的俄罗斯伊尔 76 数量为 120 架现役、另外 120 架为储备、还有 20 架已订购且可能正在制造的事实。因此，虽然输掉 2 或 4 场比赛可能会造成相当严重的打击，但这并不是灾难性的。更不用说这些飞机实际上并没有在 SMO 中使用，因为它们是运输机，而众所周知，俄罗斯的大部分物流运输都是通过铁路和卡车进行的。Il-76 大部分部署在普斯科夫，因为那里是俄罗斯著名的第 76 普斯科夫伞兵空降部队驻扎的地方，他们使用这些飞机进行训练和跳伞。First let’s dispense with the fact that wikipedia gives the number of Russian Il-76s as 120 in active service, another 120 in reserve, with 20 on order and presumably being manufactured. So, while losing 2 or 4 may be a fairly bad hit, it’s not catastrophic. That’s not to even mention that these planes are not really even used in the SMO, as they’re transport planes and Russia does most of its logistics transport via rail and truck as most know. The Il-76s are mostly in Pskov as that’s where Russia’s famed 76th Pskov Paratroopers Airborne unit is stationed, and they use the planes to train with and jump out of.
最新报告表明，这次行动是英国军情六处计划了数月之久的。当然，据一些报道称，需要数月时间协调的事情会造成The latest reports indicate that this operation was planned with British Mi6 for many months. Of course something that took months to coordinate will do 一些some 损害，特别是因为这次袭击使用了至少 21 架以上的无人机群。据说它们可能是damage, particularly since the attack utilized a mass drone swarm of at least 21+ drones, according to some reports. They were said to possibly be the new 最近成为头条新闻的澳大利亚新型“纸板”无人机：Australian “card board” drones which have been in headlines recently:
这些无人机几乎对雷达来说是看不见的，因为纸板基本上对雷达波是有渗透性的。这表明乌克兰及其西方控制者正在不断创新并寻找绕过俄罗斯防御的新方法。但俄罗斯随后也进行了创新和适应，这就是为什么你可能在几个月内不会再次看到如此“成功”的袭击。These drones are nearly invisible to radar because cardboard is basically porous to radar waves. It shows that Ukraine and their Western controllers are constantly innovating and finding new ways to bypass Russia’s defenses. But Russia subsequently innovates and adapts as well, which is why you likely won’t see such a “successful” strike again for several more months.
还有一个大问题是，这些无人机是如何一路到达距离乌克兰边境 600 多公里的普斯科夫的。有些人声称他们来自爱沙尼亚。最近，很多人问我乌克兰如何对俄罗斯领土进行无人机袭击。那么我就借这个情况来稍微说明一下这个问题。There are big questions also about how these drones made it all the way to Pskov, 600km+ from the Ukrainian border. Some are claiming they came from Estonia. Many people have asked me recently, in general, how Ukraine conducts drone strikes on Russian territory. So allow me to use this circumstance to elucidate slightly on this matter.
首先，必须知道的是，西方媒体已经多次证实乌克兰正在向俄罗斯派出携带无人机的破坏分子，这些无人机是从Firstly, it must be known that it was already confirmed by Western media several times that Ukraine is sending saboteurs into Russia armed with drones which are launched from 俄罗斯境内发射的：within Russian territory:
这非常容易做到。你所需要的只是一个潜伏的特工，或者一个以虚假借口合法进入俄罗斯并购买任意数量合法拥有的现成无人机的人，比如中国的 Mavics 等。这些无人机可以安装爆炸物并从目标周边飞出。例如，如果你在一个空军基地旁边，你可以在当局弄清楚到底发生了什么之前，从基地外的围栏上驾驶一架 FPV 无人机直接飞到一架飞机上并将其炸毁，然后开车离开。This is extremely easy to do. All you have to have is a sleeper agent or someone who crosses over into Russia legally under false pretenses and buys any number of legal-to-own off-the-shelf drones, like Chinese Mavics, etc. These drones can be fitted with explosives and flown right from the perimeter of the target. If you’re next to an airbase for instance, you can fly an FPV drone from the fence outside of the base right onto a plane and blow it up then leave by car long before authorities have figured out what even happened.
事实上，这一点在几个案例中得到了证实，不仅是很久以前对克里米亚空军基地的袭击，还有对白俄罗斯境内的俄罗斯 A-50 预警机的企图袭击。肇事者从基地外驾驶一架 FPV 无人机，但随后被抓获。In fact, this exact thing has been confirmed in several of the cases, not only in strikes on Crimean air bases long ago but also on the attempted strike on the Russian A-50 AWACS plane in Belarus. The perpetrator flew an FPV drone from right outside the base but was then caught.
所以我们知道一个事实，至少这种无人机攻击方式被证实正在被积极使用。另一种更困难的策略是So we know for a fact that at least this one style of drone strike is confirmed as being actively used. The other more difficult tactic is sending larger drones like Ukrainian ‘从乌克兰境内长距离派遣大型无人机，例如乌克兰“海狸”无人机。Beaver他们如何穿越数百公里的俄罗斯领土而不被发现？’ drones over long distances from Ukrainian territory. How can they travel through hundreds of kilometers of Russian territory without being detected?
两种方式：Two ways:
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首先，它们由碳纤维/轻质复合材料制成，雷达波很难反射。Firstly, they are made out of carbon fiber / light composite materials which are very difficult for radar waves to reflect from.
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它们飞得相对较低，这意味着，凭借雷达地平线的硬科学，只有在距离雷达装置只有几公里的地方才能检测到它们。They fly relatively low which means, by virtue of the hard science of radar horizon, they simply cannot be detected until they’re only a few kilometers away from a radar installation.
对于那些关注我的文章的人来说，您可能还记得我曾多次发布卫星照片，显示美国 SIGINT 卫星如何仅根据特定频段的发射来检测俄罗斯雷达的安装位置：For those who’ve followed my writings, you may recall several times that I’ve posted satellite photos showing how American SIGINT satellites can detect Russian radar installation positions simply based on their particular band emissions:
之后，他们所要做的就是一个简单的数学计算：如果物体在 n 高度行驶，雷达只能在 y 距离处看到 x 大小的物体。因此，他们立即知道雷达地平线的周长是多少，以及无人机需要行驶到哪里才能“绕过”非探测区域。他们规划了一条详细的路径，该路径被编程到无人机的卫星导航中，无人机沿着一条独特的蛇形路径穿过各个雷达边缘。After that, all they have to do is a simple mathematical calculation: radar can only see an object of x size at y distance if the object is traveling at n altitude. Thus, they immediately know what the perimeters of the radar horizons are and where the drones need to travel in order to “skirt” the non-detection zones. They plan out a detailed pathway that’s programmed into the drone’s satellite navigation, and the drone follows a unique, serpentine path through the various radar edges.
一个例子来说明它的外观。假设下图中的红色圆圈是 S-300 雷达对在 500 英尺或An example of how that would look. Let’s say in the image below the red circles are all coverage zones of S-300 radars for objects that are flying at 500ft altitude or 以下高度飞行的物体的所有覆盖区域below。黄色圆圈覆盖了从大约 500 英尺到 5000 英尺高度飞行的任何物体。紫色圆圈覆盖 5000 英尺及以上：. The yellow circles are coverage for anything flying from about 500ft to 5000ft altitude. And the purple circles cover 5000ft and upward:
这是一个简化版本，只是为了说明这个想法。但正如你所看到的，分层防御实际上是重叠的，但仅限于紫色区域。大多数防空条令是为冷战时期的战术和打击高空飞行的飞机打击群而制定的。如果任何在正常高度飞行的普通飞机进入该区域，如果飞机高于 5000 英尺，就会被检测到，因为根本没有间隙。This is a simplified version just to illustrate the idea. But as you can see, the layered defense is in fact overlapping, but only in the purple regions. Most air defense doctrine was created for cold war era tactics and combating high flying aircraft strike groups. If any normal plane flying at normal altitudes were to enter that zone, it would be detected as there are no gaps at all, if the plane is above 5000ft.
但由于无人机的飞行高度为 100 英尺，因此上方唯一能检测到它的圆圈就是红色圆圈。或者即使它在 1000 英尺处飞行，黄色圆圈也会检测到它，但它们之间有微小的间隙。通过研究信号拦截卫星雷达的位置，西方合作伙伴可以为乌克兰无人机绘制蓝线所示的路线，这些无人机依偎在黄色圆圈之间，迂回到达北部的莫斯科。But since the drone is flying at a hypothetical 100ft, the only circle above that would detect it would be the red one. Or even if it’s flying at 1000ft, the yellow circle would detect it, but those have slight gaps in between. By studying the placement of the radars from signal intercepting satellites, Western partners can plot a route for Ukraine’s drones as seen by the blue lines, which snuggle in between the yellow circles and circuitously get to Moscow in the north.
此外，无论雷达组织得多么紧密，许多自然地理、地形和简单的城市特征都会限制雷达在城市密度较高的地区进行探测。如果无人机飞行高度为 100-200 英尺，但在一般地区有大量丘陵、山脉和建筑物，高度都在 200-1000 英尺之间，那么你猜怎么着？雷达波到处都会有障碍物，覆盖范围也会受到限制。Further, no matter how tightly you organize the radars there are many natural geographical, topographical, and simply urban features which limit radar detection in areas with higher city density. If the drone is flying at 100-200ft, but in the general region there are tons of hills, mountains, and buildings which are all anywhere from 200-1000ft high, then guess what? There will be obstructions to the radar waves everywhere, and limits to the coverage.
您可以通过在各处放置更多系统来弥补这一点，但这当然受到您拥有的系统数量和训练有素的人员的限制。此外，您还可以通过带有俯视雷达的 AWACS 式飞机进行 24/7 不间断监视，从空中获得覆盖范围，但很难知道俄罗斯有限的 AWACS 机队有多么紧张。据推测，他们只有大约 15 架 A-50 飞机，并记得世界各地飞机的标准“任务准备”率在 30-70% 之间。这被定义为在任何给定时间可用或可飞行的飞机的百分比。其余部分处于持续维护状态。对于F-22/F-35等更先进的飞机，美国的战备率低至30%，这意味着只有30%的机队可以飞行和运行。You can make up for this by placing many more systems everywhere but of course this is limited by how many systems and trained personnel you have available. Also you can get coverage from the air with a constant 24/7 overwatch of AWACS style planes with look-down radars, but it’s difficult to know how stretched Russia’s limited AWACS fleet is. They supposedly have only about ~15 A-50 planes, and recall that standard “mission readiness” rates for aircraft around the world is anywhere from 30-70%. This is defined as what percentage of aircraft are usable or flyable at any given time. The remainder is in a constant state of maintenance. For more advanced planes like F-22/F-35, the U.S. readiness rate has been as low as 30%, which means only 30% of the fleet can fly and operate.
因此，只有大约 15 架预警机，无论多少，在任何给定时间都可能只有一半数量能够真正飞行，而且它们不仅必须分布在整个乌克兰前线，而且其中一些是防御所必需的俄罗斯北部和东部边境，监视日本海、鄂霍次克海、白令海等地附近的北约。因此理论上，俄罗斯在任何特定时间都可以为乌克兰部署3-5架预警机。So, with only around 15 AWACS it’s possible that only half that number, give or take, can really fly at any given time, and they have to be not only spread around the entire Ukrainian front, but some of them are required for the defense of the northern and eastern borders of Russia, to watch NATO around the Sea of Japan, Okhotsk, Bering Sea, etc. So theoretically Russia could have as little as 3-5 AWACS for Ukraine at any given time.
请记住，强大的美国本身只有大约 30 架官方 E-3 哨兵预警机，因此各国通常不会拥有大量此类设备。然而，美国还有更多的 RC-135、E-8、P-8 Orion 等，可以帮助填补具有类似能力的空白。俄罗斯通过 Mig-31 巡逻机填补了这一空白，该机配备强大的俯视模式 Zaslon-M 雷达。Keep in mind the mighty U.S. only has around ~30 official E-3 Sentry AWACS itself, so countries don’t typically have massive amounts of these. However, the U.S. also has some more RC-135s, E-8s, P-8 Orions, etc., which can help fill the gaps with somewhat similar capabilities. Russia fills the gaps by having Mig-31s patrol, which have powerful look-down mode Zaslon-M radars.
最后，我想指出两件重要的事情。首先，正如我所说，普斯科夫机场几乎没有任何军事用途，甚至与SMO没有联系。因此，由于这个弱点，它被专门针对，因为知道它的防御不那么好，因为那里没有什么关键的东西。请注意，乌克兰几乎无法攻击俄罗斯任何真正重要的机场，如恩格斯机场、迪亚吉列沃机场、奥莱尼亚机场，或靠近前线的机场，如别尔江斯克机场，那里有数十架前线攻击直升机。那是因为这些实际上受到了很好的保护。因此，乌克兰当然选择了一个可能有机会击中的不起眼的目标，而且他们仍然花费了“数月”的准备时间来做一些军事上无关紧要的事情。Lastly, I’d like to point out two important things. First of all, the Pskov airfield as I said has almost no military utility and is not even connected to the SMO. Thus it was targeted specifically due to this weakness, knowing that it’s not as well-defended because there’s nothing critical there. Notice Ukraine has hardly been able to scratch any of Russia’s actual important airfields like Engels, Dyagilevo, Olenya, or the ones near the frontline like Berdiansk, which houses dozens of frontline attack choppers. That’s because these are actually well-protected. So of course Ukraine chooses an obscure target it might stand a chance of hitting, and it still cost them “months” of preparation to do something militarily insignificant.
第二点是这样的。许多无知的人抱怨道：“俄罗斯的防空能力很弱，如果廉价的乌克兰无人机能够绕过他们，想象一下，如果俄罗斯在不久的将来与北约爆发全面战争，北约会怎么做！俄罗斯不会持续超过一个小时/天/周/等等。”The second point is this. Many ignorant people have whined something along these lines: “Russian air defense is weak, if cheap Ukrainian drones managed to bypass them imagine what NATO would do if Russia ends up in a full-scale war with NATO in the near future! Russia wouldn’t last more than a hour/day/week/etc.”
但他们忽略了一个问题：乌克兰实际上拥有北约在这种假设的冲突中永远不会享有的重大优势。你看，乌克兰可以享受北约完全卫星主导地位的奢侈，而俄罗斯却没有能力因为不想发动第三次世界大战而将这些资产拿出来。这意味着乌克兰获得了一个“作弊代码”，他们可以在其中看到所有俄罗斯资产并围绕其计划一切，绕过俄罗斯防御等。But here’s the catch they miss: Ukraine actually has a major advantage which NATO would never enjoy in such a hypothetical conflict. You see, Ukraine gets to enjoy the luxury of NATO’s full satellite dominance without Russia’s ability to take those assets out due to not wanting to start WW3. That means Ukraine gets a “cheat code” where they can see all Russian assets and plan everything around that, bypassing Russian defenses, etc.
但如果俄罗斯与北约发生“全面战争”，猜猜哪项资产将首先被摧毁？没错——北约的卫星就不会存在。北约将是盲目的，根本没有能力从远处看到俄罗斯的AD或其他资产，这意味着即使是乌克兰对俄罗斯“后方深处”的微弱无人机袭击也远远超出了北约在许多方面的能力。But if Russia was in a ‘full out war’ against NATO, guess which asset would be the first thing to come down? That’s right—NATO’s satellites wouldn’t exist. NATO would be blind and have no ability whatsoever to see Russia’s AD or other assets from afar, which means that even Ukraine’s puny drone strikes to Russia’s “deep rear” are far more than what NATO would be capable of in many ways.
一些人认为：“但北约拥有数千颗卫星，俄罗斯无法将它们全部击落。” 他们将 GPS 和星链等技术混为一谈，后者是遍布地球轨道的小型可批量生产模块。但就实际的企业级光电或光电卫星而言，他们的数量很少。美国所依赖的巨型光电卫星总共有5颗，每颗价值超过50亿美元。这些导弹将在俄罗斯 A-235 Nudol 导弹的燃烧残骸中坠落，而美国将视而不见。当然，俄罗斯卫星也可能坠落，但俄罗斯是唯一被证明知道如何发动非高科技战争的国家。北约同时依赖火炮和多管火箭炮（HIMARS等），后者只能使用卫星制导弹药进行射击。Some argue: “But NATO has thousands of satellites, Russia can’t shoot them all down.” They conflate things like GPS and Starlink, which are small mass-produceable modules that dot the earth’s orbit. But in terms of actual enterprise level optoelectrical or E/O satellites, they have very few. The U.S. has a grand total of 5 giant optoelectrical satellites it relies on, each costing over $5 billion dollars. Those would come down in flaming wrecks to Russian A-235 Nudol missiles and U.S. would be blind. Sure, Russian satellites would likely come down too, but Russia is the only one that’s proven to know how to wage non-hightech war. NATO relies on both artillery and MLRS (HIMARS etc.) that can only shoot with satellite guided munitions. Russia has been accurately hitting Ukrainian targets with pencil-paper and sextant since the start of the war—they don’t need satellites.
最后，考虑到最近与北约的所有这些比较，有趣的是，纪录片《And lastly, with all these comparisons to NATO lately, it’s funny that this clip from the documentary film 雷斯特雷波》中的这段片段Restrepo已经在频道播出。它展示了阿富汗战争中强大的美国武装部队在战斗情况下的真实面貌。看过俄罗斯军队在乌克兰的英雄事迹后，你真的认为这支军队有机会吗？这是 has hit the channels. It shows what the mighty American armed forces really look like in combat situations, from the Afghan war. After watching the heroism of Russian troops in Ukraine, you really think this army here would stand a chance? And this was 在现代军队变成雪花之前的事——想象一下现在有多糟糕：before the army turned snowflake in the modern era—imagine how bad it is now:
另一个要点是，俄罗斯显然是一支适应性很强的武装部队。他们从每一个错误中吸取教训，并不断实施变革来调整运营。敌人也从不睡觉，也总是在创新，所以这是一场战场创新的持续力量蠕变游戏。As another general point, it’s clear that Russia is a highly adaptable armed forces. They learn from every mistake and continually implement changes to finetune operations. The enemy never sleeps either and is always innovating as well, so it’s a continuous power creep game of battlefield innovation.
例如，俄罗斯已经采取了多种措施来阻止未来乌克兰海军无人机撞击刻赤大桥：As an example, Russia has already implemented several tricks to stop future Ukrainian naval drones from hitting the Kerch bridge:
克里米亚大桥沿岸立即部署了7艘驳船，形成防护屏障，抵御乌克兰武装部队的神风特攻队无人艇。Along the Crimean bridge, 7 barges were immediately placed to form a protective barrier against unmanned kamikaze boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
据推测，电缆和链条也将在驳船之间伸展，从而为敌方 BEC 形成屏障，一旦再次试图攻击桥梁，敌方 BEC 就会落入这个陷阱。It is assumed that cables and chains will also be stretched between the barges, thereby creating a barrier for enemy BECs, which should fall into this trap in the event of another attempt to strike the bridge.
这种设计可能看起来很奇怪和原始，但在夜间和密集的小型武器火力下，无人机操作员可能根本没有注意到他在哪里游泳或在躲避过程中未能成功进行机动。The design may seem strange and primitive, but being at night and under dense small arms fire, the drone operator may simply not notice where he is swimming or maneuver unsuccessfully in the process of evasion.
据报道，俄罗斯不仅在桥上以精确的间隔驻扎驳船，以监视无人机，甚至可能在它们之间悬挂某种反无人机网。但也有消息称，俄罗斯已开始在战略要地的浅湾击沉大型旧船，以建立廉价的天然屏障，将任何潜在的无人机集中到狭窄、易于控制的阻塞点。Reportedly not only has Russia stationed barges all along the bridge at exact intervals, to both watch for drones and possibly even suspend some kind of anti-drone netting between them. But also there’s word that Russia has begun sinking large old ships in the shallow bay there at strategic points to create a cheap natural barrier, funneling any potential drones into narrow, easily controlled chokepoints.
再举个例子，我最近写过关于俄罗斯反电池战领域的讨论，以及某些前线的抱怨，俄罗斯需要采取更多措施来提高其反电池能力，因为俄罗斯军队抱怨说，唯一真正的、他们面临的棘手威胁是来自 AFU 的不间断炮火。他们可以应对 AFU 的攻击，但炮兵已经让他们疲惫不堪。As further example, there’s been recent discussion I’ve written about in the realm of Russian counter-battery warfare and the complaints from certain frontlines that Russia needs to do more to improve its counter-battery capabilities as Russian troops complain that the only real, intractable threat they’re facing is incessant artillery barrages from the AFU. They can handle the AFU’s assaults but the artillery is wearing them thin.
那么绍伊古做什么呢？这位所谓“可恨”的国防部长拜访了俄罗斯反电池系统的顶级制造商，并So what does Shoigu do? The so-called “hated” defense minister visits the top manufacturers of Russian counter-battery systems and 要求他们提高demands for them to increase生产率： production rates:
提醒我为什么“精神分裂爱国者”又声称他如此可怕？显然，他正在尽自己的职责，通过 MIC 的链条将战场需求转化为立即可行的结果。Remind me why “schizopatriots” claim he’s so terrible again? He’s clearly doing his job, converting battlefield demands into immediate actionable results through the chains of the MIC.
最后，虽然乌克兰每季度发动一次袭击，对甚至对 SMO 没有任何影响的资产造成中等程度的损害，但俄罗斯却在同一时间段内摧毁了 AFU 的实际军事目标。昨晚基辅遭到导弹和无人机的毁灭性打击：Lastly, while Ukraine achieved one quarterly strike with moderate damage against assets that don’t even have any bearing on the SMO, Russia in the same span of time has devastated the AFU’s actual military targets. Last night Kiev was struck a devastating blow with missiles and drones:
一些消息来源称，基辅的一个铁路调车场遭到袭击。全国各地的许多其他目标也同样遭到袭击，包括切尔卡瑟、敖德萨和日托米尔。Some sources say a railroad yard in Kiev was hit. Many other targets throughout the country were likewise hit, in Cherkasy, Odessa, and Zhytomir.
一天前，俄罗斯的空袭炸毁了顿涅茨克市以西梅察洛沃车站前线的一列载有乌克兰装备的火车。And a day prior, Russian strikes blew away a train carrying Ukrainian gear to the front in Metsalovo station west of Donetsk city.
除此之外，过去一周还发生了无数其他袭击事件，这些袭击事件继续破坏乌克兰的基础设施。This is in addition to countless other strikes in the past week which continue goring Ukrainian infrastructure.
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让我们继续讨论下一节有关开发事件的内容。Let’s segue into the next section about developing events.
主题继续围绕着乌克兰不久的将来的大规模新动员——一些人认为最早会在九月初：The theme continues to revolve around large new mobilizations slated for Ukraine’s near future—some believe as soon as early September:
由于损失巨大，乌克兰将从9月初开始全面动员。首先，他们将聚集来自国有企业和商业企业的所有适龄军人。同样的命运等待着学年开始时到达大学的学生。第一个“刀下”将前往基辅认为已经失去的那些地区。人口首先准备“换肉”的地区，然后将城市和村庄夷为平地。这些地区包括切尔尼戈夫、苏梅、哈尔科夫、第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克、敖德萨、扎波罗热和尼古拉耶夫地区。Due to the huge losses, total mobilization will begin in Ukraine from the beginning of September. First of all, they will gather all men of military age from state and commercial enterprises. The same fate awaits students who arrive at their universities at the beginning of the academic year. The first" under the knife " will go to those areas that Kiev considers already lost for itself. Regions where the population is first ready to put "for meat", and then to level cities and villages with the face of the earth. These are Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Zaporizhia and Mykolaiv regions.
发布的文件证明了这一点，显示乌克兰每个主要地区都在为大规模动员进程做好准备。就像下面这样：This has been backed by the release of documents showing every major Ukrainian region gearing up for a wide-scale mobilization process. Like the following:
我已经在上一篇文章中详细介绍了它，但这仍然是少数关键进展之一。I already covered it at length in the last article, but this does remain one of the few key developments.
他们不打算举行选举，但动员工作已经在进行。They do not plan to hold elections, but mobilization is already running.
乌克兰消息人士写道，总统办公室同意总参谋部要求的新一波动员的计划和方法。秋季期间，应征召20万名乌克兰人加入乌克兰武装部队，并计划在冬春季节招募30万名乌克兰人。Ukrainian sources write that the Office of the President agreed with the plans and methods of a new wave of mobilization requested by the General Staff. During the fall, 200,000 Ukrainians should be drafted into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and another 300,000 people are planned to be caught in the winter-spring.
根据上述内容，他们的目标是在秋季征召 20 万人，在冬季征召 30 万人以上。请记住，正如上次提到的，有多次报道称乌克兰目前每月有 1 万名男子流血。因此According to the above, they will have a target of drafting 200k men for the fall and upwards of another 300k for the winter. Keep in mind, as mentioned last time, there are repeated reports that Ukraine is currently bleeding 10k men per month. So ，为了达到收支平衡just to break even，他们需要从街上筹集一万美元。, they need to scrounge up 10k from the streets.
那个怎么样？例如，我们收到来自乌克兰消息来源的新报告，如下所示，其中指出乌克兰每天有 200-500 人死亡和 500-1500 人受伤。据报道，这仅指拉博蒂诺方面军，甚至没有计算哈尔科夫等其他方面军的损失：How is that? Well, for instance, we have new reports from Ukrainian sources like the following which states that Ukraine is losing 200-500 dead and 500-1500 wounded per day. Reportedly this was in reference only to the Rabotino front, it doesn’t even count the losses from other fronts like Kharkov:
诚然，这篇文章是在 8 月 18 日发布的，当时的情况可能稍微高一些，但每天有 500 人死亡 x 30 天 = 每月 15,000 人。平分差价但加上其他战线，你就可以开始了解之前10k的每月补货成本了。因此，为了获得 20 万甚至 30 万，他们必须真正将动员程度推向新的高度。Granted this was posted on August 18th when perhaps things were slightly more high-intensity, but 500 dead per day x 30 days = 15,000 per month. Split the difference but add other fronts and you can start to understand the earlier 10k monthly replenishment cost. Thus to get 200k or even 300k they’d have to really push mobilization to new heights.
对于那些可能对拉博蒂诺前线的这些数字表示怀疑的人，这里还有一些关于那里部署了哪些部队的入门知识：For those who may doubt such numbers from the Rabotino front, here’s also a little primer on what forces are arrayed there:
乌克兰军队三个月内攻克半个拉博蒂诺村所吸引的兵力数量：The number of troops that the Ukrainian army attracted in three months to capture half of Rabotino village:
第 33 独立机械化旅 (OMBr)33rd Independent Mechanised Brigade (OMBr)
第47届UMBR47th UMBR
65 UMBR65th UMBR
第78独立物资支援营78th Independent Material Support Battalion
第73海事特别行动中心73rd Maritime Special Operations Centre
第10军：10th Army Corps:
第 116 届 OMbr116th OMbr
第117 UMBR117th UMBR
118 UMBR118th UMBR
栗色战术大队：Maroon Tactical Group:
第46独立空中机动旅46th Independent Airmobile Brigade
第71独立猎兵旅71st Independent Jaeger Brigade
第82独立空降突击旅82nd Independent Airborne Assault Brigade
第132独立侦察营132nd Independent Reconnaissance Battalion
第14届UMBR14th UMBR
第15届UMBR15th UMBR
国民警卫队第三作战旅3rd Operational Brigade of the National Guard
外国雇佣兵和北约特种部队。Foreign mercenaries and NATO special forces.
因此，6万名人员参与了攻占一个村庄的行动，其中一半被毁，还有数百件装备。Thus, 60,000 personnel were involved in the capture of one village, of which half were lost, along with hundreds of pieces of equipment.
北约对战争的理解和战术技巧让乌克兰陷入了这样的境地，结局对霍霍尔人来说会更悲伤，但对所有人来说更有利。NATO's understanding of war and tactical skills have brought Ukraine to this situation, and the ending will be even sadder for the Khohols, but more salutary for all.
另一篇详细的帖子描述了哪些俄罗斯单位和编队正在反对他们：And another detailed post which describes which Russian units and formations are opposing them:
“拉博蒂诺附近谁在与谁作战"Who is fighting against whom near Rabotino
乌克兰攻击的最前线是由帕维尔·拉济季诺夫中校指挥的霍霍尔第 82 独立空降突击旅。武器装备：美国史赛克、英国挑战者2和德国Marder I。At the forefront of the Ukrainian attack is the 82nd separate airborne assault brigade of Khokhol under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Pavel Raziedinov. Armament: American Stryker, British Challenger 2 and German Marder I.
塔尔纳夫斯基将军领导的乌克兰攻击集团“塔夫里亚”得到了后备力量的加强，这使得乌克兰空军在数量上取得了4:1的优势，在装甲车和火炮方面则取得了3:1的优势。The attacking Ukrainian group "Tavria" of General Tarnavsky is reinforced with reserves, which allowed the UAF to gain a numerical advantage of 4:1, in armored vehicles and artillery 3:1.
因此，在令人不快的比例下，俄罗斯第58集团军、近卫第42机械化步兵师各团在海军陆战队第810旅和特种部队第22旅的海军陆战队士兵的支援下开始撤退。An unpleasant ratio, therefore, the Russian 58th Army, regiments of the 42nd Guards Mechanized Rifle Division, supported by marine soldiers from the 810th Marine Brigade and the 22nd Special Forces Brigade, began to retreat.
关于霍克霍尔试图引进第46独立空中机动旅和第118机械化旅的额外部队，我们的第22特种部队旅和Bars-1、Bars-11、Bars-3和Bars-14四个营反对“萨尔马特”也开始向东撤退。In connection with Khokhol's attempts to introduce additional units of the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade and the 118th Mechanized Brigade, which are opposed by our 22nd Special Forces Brigade and four battalions of Bars-1, Bars-11, Bars-3 and Bars-14 "Sarmat" also began to withdraw to the east.
第76近卫空降师从谢列布良斯基森林调来增援。这是一支极其暴躁的部队，其指挥官因穿越卡霍瓦大坝而获得俄罗斯英雄称号。当时的2022年2月26日，伞兵夺取了第聂伯河附近的桥头堡，击退了乌克兰的7次进攻，摧毁了20多辆BBM部队。随后该师在克列梅纳亚和斯瓦托沃表现出色。The 76th Guards Airborne Division was transferred to reinforce from the Serebryansky Forest. An extremely toothy unit, the commander of which received the Hero of Russia for crossing the Kakhova dam. Back then, on February 26, 2022, the paratroopers seized a bridgehead near the Dnieper and repulsed 7 Ukrainian attacks, destroying more than 20 BBM units. Then the division performed well at Kremennaya and Svatovo.
第1140炮兵团、第234近卫团和第247托伦团也赶到支援他们的战友。The 1140th Artillery Regiment, the 234th Guards and the 247th Torun Regiment also arrived to help their colleagues.
你可以想象正在进行什么样的割草。关于方圆6公里的地块内残留有120多台敌方装备的事实，很多人都已经听说了。”You can imagine what kind of mowing is going on. About the fact that there are more than 120 units of enemy equipment left in a plot of 6 kilometers, many have already heard."
需要注意的重要一点是，自从泽连斯基和北约领导层最近就浪费和驱散其部队问题发生臭名昭著的“冲突”以来，有报道称泽连斯基/扎卢日尼现在试图在某种程度上默许其主人的要求。这意味着增援部队已从巴赫穆特/克莱谢耶夫卡地区撤出，并被派往拉博蒂诺，以形成一支更大的先头部队。The important thing to note is that, since the infamous recent “clash” between Zelensky and NATO leadership about wasting and dissipating his forces, there have been reports that Zelensky/Zaluzhny have now attempted to somewhat acquiesce to their masters’ demands. That means reinforcements have been stripped from the Bakhmut/Klescheyevka area and sent down to Rabotino to form an even bigger spearhead.
对于拉博蒂诺来说，这是个坏消息，但克莱切耶夫卡队的队员们享受了短暂的喘息机会，并表示在这些重新定位之后，前线对他们来说已经“安静”了。For Rabotino that was bad news, but the Klescheyevka guys have enjoyed a brief welcome respite and relay that the front has been ‘quiet’ for them after these reorientations.
然而，即使在付出了所有这些支出之后，俄罗斯前线消息来源报告说，拉博蒂诺虽然被他们抛弃了，但仍然没有被 AFU 捕获，并且现在处于一个可能无法摆脱的灰色地带。原因之一是，与旧马约尔斯克和其他城镇一样，它现在已被摧毁，没有太多地方可以躲藏。因此，当 AFU 部队进入时，他们会受到俄罗斯炮火的轰炸，并很快被迫逃离。However, even after all of these expenditures, Russian frontline sources report that Rabotino, while abandoned by them, is still not captured by the AFU and is now in a gray zone from which it may not emerge. One of the reasons is as with Staromayorsk and other towns, it’s now so destroyed that there is not much place to hide. So when AFU units move in they are bombarded by Russian artillery and are quickly forced to flee.
俄罗斯脾气暴躁的前将军、现任杜马代表古鲁列夫公开主张用核武器攻击拉博蒂诺，而前面描述的大批 AFU 部队则“聚集”在该地区：Russia’s fiery ex-general and now-Duma deputy Gurulev openly advocated nuking Rabotino while that huge mass of AFU forces described earlier is “bunched up” in the area:
同样，在东边的 Staromayork 和 Urozhayne 轴线上，Pushilin 证实乌克兰仍然无法控制其中任何一个村庄，原因与上述相同，并且被迫尝试将它们限制在东侧：Similarly on the Staromayork and Urozhayne axis to the east, Pushilin confirms how Ukraine is still not able to control either one of those villages for the same reasons as mentioned above, and are forced to try to circumscribe them to the eastern flanks:
正如上面发布的拉博蒂诺地图所示，AFU 正在尝试做同样的事情，绕向韦尔博韦而不是占领拉博蒂诺。As seen in the Rabotino map posted above, the AFU is trying to do the same there by wrapping around toward Verbove rather than occupying Rabotino.
奥地利军事分析家赖斯纳上校给出了负面评价，称自库尔斯克战役以来，北约从未见过这样的防御工事：Austrian military analyst colonel Reisner gave a negative assessment, saying that NATO has never seen such defensive fortifications since the Battle of Kursk:
为了扭转局面，就连《图片报》也报道了乌克兰即将到来的动员：To bring it back around, even the Bild is reporting on Ukraine’s upcoming mobilization:
话虽如此，国防部长雷兹尼科夫目前否认了新的动员计划，但他的话不值得写在卫生纸上。With that said, defense minister Reznikov has for now denied plans for a new mobilization, but his word isn’t worth the toilet paper it’s written on.
俄罗斯也许会等着看乌克兰能捞到多少人来决定他们自己是否需要进行动员？毕竟，Could Russia perhaps be waiting to see how many men Ukraine manages to fish up to decide whether they themselves need to do a mobilization? After all, Russia would love to not 如果没有必要，俄罗斯宁愿不进行动员。have但如果乌克兰真的捕捞 50 万人（值得怀疑），他们可能别无选择。最终，我们可能会看到去年的另一场重演：双方在秋季和冬季大力动员，为春季的大规模行动做准备。 to do a mobilization if there’s no need. But were Ukraine to actually fish up 500k men (doubtful) they may have no choice. Ultimately we may see another re-run of last year: where both sides mobilize heavily during the fall and winter to prepare for big spring action.
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世界正在快速变化。未来一两年可能是我们一生中最重要、最多事的时期。不仅一场历史性的美国大选即将到来，最终可能导致内战，而且全球地缘政治格局也正在经历几十年来最重大的重组。The world is changing fast. The next year or two promises to potentially be the most momentous and eventful of our entire lifetimes. Not only is there an historic American election coming up which may end up culminating in civil war, but the global geopolitical scene is seeing its most significant restructuring in decades.
非洲国家加蓬现已成为最新一个经历反殖民政变的国家，俄罗斯/中国可能在其中发挥作用，因为这些事件的结合不可能是简单的“巧合”。加蓬总统发出绝望的恳求，恳求法国和西方世界拯救他：The African country of Gabon has now become the latest to undergo an anti-colonial coup, and there could be a Russian/Chinese hand at play because the confluence of such events cannot be simple ‘coincidence.’ The Gabonese president issued a desperate plea, begging France and the Western world to save him:
该国公民站出来支持军政府军队： The country’s citizens came out in support of the junta troops:
现在有报道称，喀麦隆下一步将要发生政变，其领导层已经在紧急改组军事高层，以防止政变发生。Now there are reports that Cameroon is set for a coup next, and its leadership is already undergoing an emergency reshuffling of the military upper echelons in order to prevent it.
然而，其他报道则声称加蓬政变只是西方帝国主义自食其果，因为据一些人说，军政府领导人是由美国培育并代表美国利益的：However, other reports claim that the Gabon coup is just Western imperialists eating their own as the junta leader, according to some, has been groomed by the U.S. and represents American interests:
但为什么一个亲美的将军会推翻一个亲法的总统呢？But why did a pro-American general overthrow a pro-French president?
法国情报局领导层对此的解释是，根据美国人的说法，法国当局不再能够在其控制的领土上有效保护包括美国在内的西方集体的利益。因此，白宫决定将局势掌握在自己手中，从法国人手中夺取主动权。The leadership of the French intelligence DGSE explains this by the fact that, according to the Americans, the French authorities are no longer able to effectively protect the interests of the collective West, including the United States, in the territory under their control. Therefore, the White House decided to take the situation into their own hands and seize the initiative from the French.
与此同时，尼日尔军政府切断了法国领事馆的供水和供应，法国领事馆拒绝离开该国，理由是他们只听从“合法”总统的命令。Meanwhile, Niger’s junta has cut off water and supplies to the French consulate which has refused to leave the country, citing that they only take orders from the ‘legitimate’ president.
事实上，这些历史性的运动紧随金砖国家的重大发展而来，这意味着到明年这个时候，世界将被重塑，西方列强将以前所未有的方式衰落。The fact that these historic movements are coming on the heels of the major BRICS developments means that by this time next year the world will have been reshaped, with Western powers waning like never before.
这是为了对俄罗斯 SMO 正在进行的事件提供一些视角。虽然有些人可能认为进展缓慢，但我坚持这样的立场：SMO 事件只是普京和其他人在全球地缘政治框架幕后实施的真正阴谋的次要背景。This is to give a bit of perspective to ongoing events of the Russian SMO. While some may consider progress to be slow, I stand by the position that the events of the SMO are merely the minor backdrop to the real machinations Putin and others are carrying out behind the scenes of the global geopolitical framework.
例如，俄罗斯显然For instance, Russia has apparently 已经开始already begun shipping通过一种新型的“一带一路”将新集装箱经由伊朗运送到沙特阿拉伯： new containers to Saudi Arabia by way of Iran in a new sort of one belt one road:
1）当埃及加入金砖国家时，最重要的贸易路线之一苏伊士运河将基本上受到金砖国家的影响。1) When Egypt joins BRICS the Suez Canal, one of the most important trade routes will be, will be essentially under their influence.
2）此外，伊朗第二条运输走廊已经启动。2) In addition, a second transport corridor Iran has been launched.
第一列装有36个集装箱的过境列车通过英什-布伦边境检查站进入伊朗。随后货物运往伊朗阿巴斯港，再通过海运至吉达港。The first transit train of 36 containers with cargo entered Iran through the Inche-Burun border checkpoint. Then the goods went to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas to be sent by sea to the port of Jeddah.
新的物流路线使从俄罗斯到亚洲国家的运输速度提高了一倍，而且价格也更便宜。印度在该项目上投资了约21亿美元，但部分货物将运往包括沙特阿拉伯在内的其他国家。The new logistics route makes transportation from Russia to Asian countries twice as fast and also cheaper. India has invested about $2.1 billion in the project, but some of the cargo will go to other countries, including Saudi Arabia.
南北运输走廊项目早在 2000 年就已开发，作为通过苏伊士运河运输的替代方案。The North-South transport corridor project was developed back in 2000 as an alternative to deliveries through the Suez Canal.
西方现在处于双输的局面。例如，即使他们支持西非经共体对尼日尔或其他国家采取军事行动，他们不仅会向非洲国家而且也会向世界其他国家揭露重大的虚伪，这只会进一步降低西方的地位，迫使更多国家与世界脱钩。他们并加入新的多极秩序。西方不仅会展示他们赤裸裸的殖民主义，而且会揭露他们如何虚伪地支持针对非洲一个主权国家的军事行动，同时谴责在乌克兰采取的同样行动。回想一下，俄罗斯的行动可以被视为对一场非法政变的干预，这场政变推翻了民选的乌克兰领导人；西方怎么可能一边谴责非洲政变并支持通过军事行动扭转政变，一边支持乌克兰政变，同时又谴责军事行动扭转政变？The West is now in a lose-lose situation. Even if they back an ECOWAS military action against Niger or others, for instance, they will expose major hypocrisy not only to African countries but to the rest of the world which will merely bring down the West’s standing even more, push further countries to disconnect from them and join the new multipolar order. Not only will the West show their naked colonialism but it will be brought to light how they hypocritically back military action against a sovereign nation in Africa while condemning the same exact action in Ukraine. Recall that Russia’s actions can be viewed as an intervention of an illegal coup which ousted the democratically elected Ukrainian leader; how could the West condemn the coup in Africa and support its reversal via military action while supporting the coup in Ukraine while condemning the military action to reverse the coup 那里there？?
世界各地继续发生进一步的运动：Further movements continue around the world:
亚洲远离美元的下一步Asia’s next step away from dollar
据《日经新闻》报道，越南、菲律宾和文莱将与其他主要东南亚经济体一起建立互联的二维码支付系统，旨在减少对美元的依赖。( Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei will join other major Southeast Asian economies in an interconnected QR code payment system that aims to reduce reliance on the US dollar - Nikkei reported. (https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Vietnam-Philippines-and-Brunei-to-join-cross-border-QR- paymenthttps://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Vietnam-Philippines-and-Brunei-to-join-cross-border-QR-payment-scheme -scheme ))
印度尼西亚、泰国、马来西亚和新加坡此前也加入了同一倡议。Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore have previously joined the same initiative.
通过该系统的付款将以当地货币进行，这意味着在泰国使用印尼应用程序进行的付款将直接兑换成卢比和泰铢，绕过美元作为中介。Payments through the system will be made in local currency, meaning payments in Thailand using the Indonesian app will be directly exchanged into rupiahs and baht, bypassing the US dollar as an intermediary.
接下来，各国央行将寻求将该网络与世界各地的其他区域集群连接起来，并最终将相同的结构引入实时银行转账甚至央行数字货币。Next, the central banks will seek to link this network with other regional clusters around the world, and bring the same structure to real-time bank transfers and even central bank digital currencies eventually.
以下是Here is 一位分析师one analyst’s对绝望的西方正在采取哪些行动作为最后一口气以保持其日益下滑的实力的有趣看法。他认为他们正在转向某种形式的“元殖民主义”或全球的超区域化，并给出了俄罗斯如何应对这种情况的处方： interesting take on what actions the desperate West is taking as a last gasp to hang on to their slipping power. He believes they are shifting to a form of ‘meta-colonialism’ or ultra-regionalization of the entire globe, and gives a prescription for how that can be countered by Russia:
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西方越来越多地以反殖民斗争为借口，对历史国家进行各种分裂。More and more often, under the pretext of anti-colonial struggle, the West offers all sorts of divisions of historical states.
他们想要分裂伊朗、中国、俄罗斯、印度等国家。They would llike to break up countries such as Iran, China, Russia, India, etc.
旧的殖民原则——“分而治之”并没有消失。The old colonial principle - "divide and rule" has not gone away.
在殖民主义和新殖民主义衰落之后，西方正在为“元殖民主义”做准备。After the decline of colonialism and neo-colonialism, the West is preparing for "meta-colonialism".
他们希望对整个地球领土进行破坏和区域化，同时保留一个相对较大的政治实体。他们正在将东方卫生卡转移到我们历史悠久的土地上，将我们挤出欧洲。They want destruction and regionalization for the entire territory of the earth, while remaining a relatively large political entity. They are shifting their Eastern Sanitary Cardon to our historical lands, squeezing us out of Europe.
他们的算法是：大国家——美国>中等国家法国>小国家波兰>小拉脱维亚>无国籍地区英格曼兰等等。Their algorithm: a large state - the United States> a medium state France> a small state Poland> a trifle Latvia> a stateless region of Ingermanland and so on.
这是他们对21世纪的看法。我们可以用什么来反对元殖民主义？从我们的角度来看，世界地图应该是什么样子？This is their view of the 21st century. And what can we oppose to metacolonialism? What should the world map look like from our point of view?
对我们来说唯一的拯救将是巩固和建立帝国。我们的世界地图应该是这样的。The only salvation for us will be consolidation and empire building. Our world map should look like this.
1.俄罗斯联盟-从布列斯特到符拉迪沃斯托克（白俄罗斯、俄罗斯、乌克兰、哈萨克斯坦）1. Russian Union - from Brest to Vladivostok (Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan)
2. 将我们与西方之间的卫生警戒线转移到东欧和南欧领土。2. Transfer of the cordon sanitaire between us and the West to the territory of Eastern and Southern Europe.
3.在斯拉夫历史定居点的领土上建立大型友好的斯拉夫国家！那是大型联邦州。3. Creation of large friendly Slavic states on the territory of the historical settlement of the Slavs! That is large federal states.
4.大南斯拉夫（前南斯拉夫+保加利亚+马其顿+罗马尼亚）以塞尔维亚为中心。4. Greater Yugoslavia (former Yugoslavia + Bulgaria + Macedonia + Romania) anchored around Serbia.
5.大西斯拉夫（前东德+波兰+捷克斯洛伐克+匈牙利+乌克兰西部和外喀尔巴阡）以匈牙利人、东德人和……波兰人为基础，这不足为奇。5. Great Western Slavia (former GDR + Poland + Czechoslovakia + Hungary + Western Ukraine and Transcarpathia) based on Hungarians, East Germans and ... Poles, no wonder.
6.西欧和整个西方的区域化。巴伐利亚、朗格多克、加利西亚、苏格兰、皮埃蒙特和德克萨斯共和国。6. Regionalization of Western Europe and the West as a whole. Bavaria, Languedoc, Galicia, Scotland, Piedmont and the Republic of Texas.
只有这样的结构才能将世界从元殖民主义中拯救出来。将在我们的大陆上建立持久的和平与安宁。Only such a construction will save the world from metacolonialism. Will establish lasting peace and tranquility on our continent.
你说这只是一个梦吗？梦想成真。50年后，地图将是这个样子。Are you saying this is just a dream? Dreams Come True. In 50 years, the map will look exactly like this.
回想一下我上次发布的与北约有联系的疯子费林格，他呼吁分裂巴西：Recall the NATO-linked madman Fehlinger whose calls to break up Brazil I posted last time:
我不确定我是否同意东方大国会像西方试图对他们所做的那样推动或实现西方的巴尔干化，但是任何人都可以肯定地看到权力中心正在迅速而彻底地向东方I’m not sure I agree that the eastern powers will push for or achieve the same balkanization of the West as the West attempts to do on them, however certainly anyone can see that the power center is shifting 转移rapidly。 and drastically to the East.
当你把所有最新进展加起来时，你就会发现西方的末日。西方的问题在于，随着它们慢慢过渡到发达的服务经济体，它们一直依赖其他国家的自然资源以及后来的制造业生存。为了实现这一目标，他们必须将所有自然资源丰富的发展中国家置于自己的控制之下。当你摇晃船时，看到有多少帝国主义啮齿动物仓皇逃窜，真是令人着迷。例如，加蓬政变一发生，立即就有报道称，道达尔石油集团的法国工人被派出该国，法国矿业公司埃赫曼 (Eramet) 也受到干扰。西方帝国主义的巨大扩张一直在我们眼皮子底下存在，融入到环境中，有些人现在才发现它们是多么彻底地渗透到非洲大陆。When you add all the latest developments up, it spells doom for the West. The problem with the West is they have always subsisted on the natural resources, and later the manufacturing, of others as they slowly transitioned into developed service economies. In order to achieve this they had to keep all the developing natural-resource-rich nations under their thumb. It’s fascinating to see how many imperialist rodents scurry out when you shake the ship. For instance, as soon as the Gabon coup happened, reports immediately came of French workers for the Total oil conglomerate sent fleeing from the country, as well as disruptions for French mining corp Eramet. The vast imperialist overreach of the West has subsisted under our noses, blended into the environment and some are only now discovering how completely they pervaded the African continent. Every African nation is overrun with Western militaries, Western big oil conglomerates, etc.
这就是为什么现在垂死的西方拼命地争先恐后地分裂乌克兰，就像秃鹰在路上被撞死一样：It’s why now the dying West is desperately scrambling to pick apart Ukraine like vultures on roadkill:
法国显然甚至恳求或胁迫印度在金砖国家峰会上否决阿尔及利亚。他们害怕失去更多：France apparently even begged or coerced India into vetoing Algeria at the BRICS summit. They’re terrified of losing more:
对他们来说，这是一个小小的安慰和胜利，但与他们目前所失去的以及金砖国家总体上所获得的相比，这算不了什么。在明年的峰会上，它只会增长，也许到那时阿尔及利亚就会加入，尽管越来越无关紧要的西方国家对此表示不满。A small consolation and victory for them, but nothing compared to what they are currently losing and what BRICS has gained in general. At next year’s summit it will only grow and perhaps by then Algeria will have joined despite the kvetching of the increasingly-irrelevant West.
事实上，Rybar 报道说，现在巴尔干地区开始表示有兴趣加入金砖国家：In fact Rybar reports that now the Balkans are beginning to signal interest in joining the BRICS:
在最近约翰内斯堡峰会后发表有关扩大该国际组织的声明的背景下，巴尔干半岛有人呼吁加入该组织。Against the background of statements about the expansion of the international organization following the recent summit in Johannesburg, there were calls for accession from the Balkan Peninsula.
???? 塞尔维亚“社会主义运动”党最近提议开始致力于加入金砖国家。其代表将向议会提交一份决议草案，根据该决议草案，塞尔维亚加入金砖国家将成为“所谓的欧盟之路的明确替代方案”。该党与执政的塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）结成联盟，由亚历山大·武林（Alexander Vulin）领导，他也是 BIA 情报部门的负责人。The Serbian party "Movement of Socialists" recently proposed to start working on joining the BRICS. Its deputies will send a draft resolution to parliament, according to which BRICS membership will become for Serbia "a clear alternative to the so-called path to the European Union." The party is in a coalition with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and is led by Alexander Vulin, who also heads the intelligence department of the BIA.
?? 继最近因毫不掩饰的亲俄立场和欧洲怀疑主义而被列入美国制裁名单的瓦林之后，波斯尼亚?? Following Vulin, who recently added to the US sanctions list due to his unconcealed pro-Russian position and Euroskepticism, 和黑塞哥维那境内的塞族共和国总统也致电 (https://t.me/rtbalkan_ru/第2366章）加入金砖国家。the president of the Republika Srpska, an entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, also called (https://t.me/rtbalkan_ru/2366) for joining the BRICS.
米洛拉德·多迪克表示，布鲁塞尔不断提出新的、不明确的加入欧盟条件。“According to Milorad Dodik, from Brussels is constantly coming up with new and unclear conditions for joining the EU. “金砖国家会比欧盟更早接受我们The BRICS will accept us earlier than the EU，”波斯尼亚塞族领导人嘲笑道，并承诺将在未来几天向波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那当局提交一份提案，以考虑该倡议。,” the leader of the Bosnian Serbs mocked and promised to send a proposal to the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina to consider the initiative in the coming days.
然而，塞尔维亚和塞族共和国并不是前南斯拉夫唯一对欧洲一体化进程旷日持久感到愤怒的国家。“团结维护全球安全”论坛近日在风景如画的斯洛文尼亚布莱德湖举行。欧洲理事会主席查尔斯·米歇尔承诺到 2030 年欢迎新的欧盟成员国，但巴尔干领导人的声明清楚地表明了普遍的怀疑程度。 However, Serbia and the Republika Srpska are far from the only ones in the former Yugoslavia who are outraged by the protracted process of European integration. The forum "Solidarity for Global Security" was recently held on the picturesque Slovenian Lake Bled. European Council President Charles Michel has pledged to welcome new EU members by 2030, but statements by Balkan leaders are a pretty clear indication of the level of general skepticism.
?? 正如塞尔维亚总理安娜·布尔纳比奇（Ana Brnabic）所说，“进球的界限”在不断变化。阿尔巴尼亚总理埃迪·拉马在评论欧洲一体化的漫长进程时显得更加诙谐。“我们似乎是在公共汽车上拖着自己的脚步，但它仍然比俄罗斯飞机更好。” 拉马和布尔纳比奇的北马其顿同事援引民意调查显示，反对加入欧盟的公民数量已经达到该国人口的80%。?? As Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic so aptly put it, “the boundaries of the goal to score a goal” are constantly shifting. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, commenting on the protracted process of European integration, tried to be even more witty. “We seem to be dragging ourselves in a bus, but still it is preferable to a Russian plane.” A colleague of Rama and Brnabic from North Macedonia cited opinion polls, according to which the number of citizens opposed to joining the EU has already reached 80% of the country's population.
社会学家最近在塞尔维亚进行的民意调查也得出了大致相同的指标，而且欧洲怀疑论者的数量每天都在增加。Approximately the same indicators were obtained by sociologists as a result of recent polls in Serbia, and the number of eurosceptics is growing every day. 因此，举行公投加入金砖国家的问题不再是梦想家的幻想，很可能在不久的将来成为现实。So the issue of holding a referendum on joining the BRICS no longer seems like a fantasy of dreamers and may well become a reality in the foreseeable future.
现在，Now 普京已同意Putin has agreed计划于 10 月在中国举办一次重要的“一带一路”论坛，这将进一步巩固发展： to intend a major belt and road forum in China in October which will further solidify developments:
对于那些感兴趣的人来说，鉴于西方很快就失去了乌克兰冒险，佩佩·For those interested, in light of the West’s soon lost Ukrainian adventure, 埃斯科瓦尔（Pepe Escobar）发表了一篇新文章Pepe Escobar has a new article，探讨西方列强的下一场“伟大游戏”将在哪里汇聚。在他看来，就是中亚，即哈萨克斯坦。可见西方的魔爪在这个资源丰富的国家扎得有多深： on where the next “great game” for Western powers will converge. In his opinion, it is central Asia, namely Kazakhstan. One can see how deeply the West’s claws are embedded in that resource-rich country:
就像我说的，随着西方在恐慌中争先恐后地坚持下去，事情现在正在迅速发展。Like I said, things are now moving fast as the West scrambles in panic to cling on.
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最后一些不同的项目。A few last disparate items.
俄罗斯中将维克托·索博列夫表示，瓦格纳将“不复存在”：Russian Lt. General Viktor Sobolev said that Wagner will ‘cease to exist’:
??”瓦格纳集团将不复存在。这些战士将能够进入平民生活或与国防部签订合同。” ——维克托·索博列夫中将。??”The Wagner Group will cease to exist. The fighters will be able to go into civilian life or sign a contract with the Ministry of defense.” —Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev.
“这是非法武装组织<……>国家中不应该有任何不隶属于国家的武装人员。“This is an illegal armed formation <…> There should not be any armed people in the state who are not subordinate to the state.
结果，这导致了叛乱。我们正处于内战的边缘，”国家杜马代表说。As a result, this led to a rebellion. We were on the verge of a civil war,” said the State Duma deputy.
他还澄清，只有那些没有参与叛乱的瓦格纳分子才能与国防部签订合同He also clarified that only those Wagnerites who did not participate in the rebellion can sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense
这是一个有趣的时刻，关于瓦格纳的一切谣言仍在流传。西方继续鼓吹疯狂的理论：This comes at an interesting time when rumors still swirl about everything in relation to Wagner. The West continues to fan crazy theories:
但有时他们听起来并不那么疯狂，就像今天，瓦格纳附属频道发布了一段视频，据报道，普里戈任于 8 月 20 日在非洲，就在他命运般地飞回莫斯科的几天前，他后来在那里去世了。在视频中，他令人不安地反思了他的“清算”：But then at times they don’t sound so crazy, like today when a Wagner-affiliated channel released a video showing Prigozhin reportedly on August 20th in Africa, mere days before his fateful flight back to Moscow where he later died. In the video he unsettlingly reflects upon his “liquidation”:
鉴于他是一个容易伪装和各种诡计的人，也许他的假定死亡并不像看上去那样，真的可以被认为是牵强的吗？毕竟，许多人认为他在圣彼得堡迅速举行且掩盖的葬礼有些“不对劲”，参加者相对较少。更不用说，据说飞机坠毁地点的土壤已经被推土机铲走了。Given that he’s a man predisposed to disguises and trickery of every sort, can it really be considered far-fetched that perhaps his putative death is not as it seems? After all, many remarked there was something “off” about his swiftly-held and covered up funeral in St. Petersburg, which saw relatively few attendees. Not to mention that the crash site of the plane was said to have had its soil removed by bulldozers.
“这就是叶夫根尼·普里戈任飞机坠毁地点现在的样子。由于某种原因，所有的土壤都被推土机铲走了并运走了”"This is how the crash site of Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane looks now. For some reason, all the soil was removed by bulldozers and taken out"
已经有关于普里戈任在马里目击事件的报道，当然几乎可以肯定是假的。但请回想一下，普里戈任实际上在 2019 年刚果的另一场飞机失事中也被宣布死亡，后来又活着回来了。这场冲突经历了我们这个时代一些最奇怪的曲折——如果看到事情再次发生奇怪的曲折，我不会感到惊讶。There have already been reports of Prigozhin sightings in Mali, almost certainly fake of course. But recall that Prigozhin had actually been similarly declared dead in another 2019 plane crash in the Congo, later resurfacing alive. The conflict has seen some of the strangest twists and turns of our time—I won’t be surprised to see things take another bizarre twist down the line.
对于那些对这个传奇的结局感兴趣的人：For those interested in the closure of the saga:
瓦格纳私人军事连的领导人叶夫根尼·普里戈任（Evgeny Prigozhin）被安葬在圣彼得堡的波罗霍夫斯科耶公墓。The leader of the Wagner Private Military Company, Evgeny Prigozhin, has been laid to rest at the Porokhovskoye cemetery in St. Petersburg.
葬礼闭门举行，只有普里戈任的近亲和朋友参加。The funeral ceremony was held behind closed doors, with only close relatives and friends of Prigozhin in attendance.
他坟墓上的匾额摘自The plaque at his grave is a passage taken from a 布罗茨基Brodsky poem的一首诗：:
“..母亲对基督说："..Mother says to Christ:
- 你是我的儿子还是我的上帝？你被钉在十字架上。我将如何回家？我将如何在不理解的情况下跨过门槛，不决定你是我的儿子还是上帝。你是死是活？- Are you my son or my God? You are nailed to the cross. How will I go home? How I will step over the threshold without understanding, without deciding if you are my son or God. Are you dead or alive?
他告诉她：He tells her back:
-死或活，没有区别。儿子或上帝，我是你的”... - dead or alive, no difference. Son or God, I am yours"...
????
据说乌特金将于今天 8 月 31 日晚些时候被埋葬在莫斯科的梅季希国家纪念公墓——毕竟，在瓦格纳任职之前，他是一名真正获得勋章的俄罗斯军人。Utkin is said to be buried later today August 31st, at the national Mytishchi memorial cemetery in Moscow—after all, he was an actual decorated Russian servicemen prior to his Wagner tenure.
美国政界人士继续表达这样的立场：利用乌克兰人作为炮灰与俄罗斯作战，而不必冒美国军队的风险，这是理想的选择，也是战争的真正原因：American politicians continue to express the position that using Ukrainians as cannonfodder to fight Russia without having to risk American troops is ideal, and is the real reason for the war:
与此同时，关于令人反感的西方观点，我们继续认为对莫斯科的恐怖袭击是可以接受的：Meanwhile, on the topic of quite repulsive Western views, we have the continued characterization of terror strikes on Moscow as acceptable:
对于一家美国报纸来说，贴出一张因神风特攻队袭击而受损的摩天大楼的照片，并附上积极或接受的标题，这只是虚伪的顶峰。For a U.S. newspaper to literally post a photo of a skyscraper damaged by a kamikaze strike along with a positive or accepting headline is just the pinnacle of hypocrisy.
但你能对这些人有什么期望呢？But what can you expect from these people?
下一个：Next:
尽管乌克兰因击中一些空飞机而幸灾乐祸，但俄罗斯最近实际上对乌克兰飞行员造成了严重的减员。发生了一连串的击落事件，导致大量飞行员丧生：While Ukraine gloats over hitting some empty planes, Russia has actually effected serious attrition on Ukrainian pilots recently. There’s been a spate of shoot downs with a lot of pilots lost:
一种说法是，一架俄罗斯 Su-35 同时击落了两架 Mi-8。这是针对那些声称俄罗斯空中力量没有巡逻/运行或试图击落UA空中力量薄弱残骸的人的。One version is that a Russian Su-35 shot down two of the Mi-8s at once. This is for those people who claim Russian airpower isn’t patrolling/operating or trying to shoot down the feeble remains of UA’s airpower.
就在两天前，有消息称，乌克兰西部的一些特技表演导致 3 名著名飞行员在 L-39 教练机相撞时丧生：This comes only two days after the news that some Ukrainian stunt in the west of the country caused 3 notable and decorated pilots to be killed when their trainer L-39 planes crashed into each other:
最后，中国人民继续以公开或微妙的方式表达对俄罗斯SMO的支持：Lastly, Chinese people continue to show their support, both overtly and in subtle ways, for the Russian SMO:
中国支持俄罗斯！China supports Russia!
在与中国接壤的布拉戈维申斯克，居民看到了这种构图。最有趣的是，它是中国人制作的，展示了我们在边界另一边的一面。In Blagoveshchensk, which is on the border with China, residents saw this composition. The most interesting thing is that it was made by the Chinese and shows our side on the other side of the border.
ps Substack 宣布了一个新的支付方式系统，他们显然正在扩展您可以支付的方式类型。将来他们打算有更多的选择，但现在，如果您是因为特定的信用卡自动付款功能而对订阅持观望态度的人之一，请阅读他们的新方法，看看它是否适合您：p.s. Substack has announced a new system of payment methods where they are apparently expanding the types of ways you can pay. In the future they intend to have even more options, but for now, if you were one of the people on the fence about subscribing because of the specific credit card autopay feature, read up on their new methods and see if it suits you: https ://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/18687769631252https://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/18687769631252
感谢大家一直以来的支持！Thanks to all for the continued support!
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（谷歌翻译：SITREP 8/30/23: Ukraine Smokescreens Failures With Meaningless Deep-strikes）
