Significantly Decreased Probabilty

来源: Happyyl 于 2017-06-27 11:17:52 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (3106 bytes)
 

A man has been afraid of riding airplane ever since his childhood in fear of that someone will bring a bomb on the plane. He managed years and years to go places avoiding flights. 

As time went on, his son grew older, went to college, found a job, got married and settled down on the other coast of the country.  One day, his son called him up.  “Daddy, we just had a new baby and you should come over to see your grandson.”

The 3,000-mile distance made the air travel to be the only viable option for him to see his son.  After struggling for a few days, he went to a psychroic doctor to seek advices.

Understood his concern and thought for a while, the doctor suggested the man to carry one bomb himself to board the plane.

“Why do you ask me to do that?”  The man was surprised about the advice.

“Well, the probability to find one bomb on a plane is about one millionth.”  The doctor showed the patient the FBI statistics.  “Accordingly, the probability to have two bombs on the same airplane will decrease to one trillionth.  That means nearly zero probability and therefore that flight for you to ride will be very safe that way.”



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所有跟帖： 

• 有道理哈！好像。 -紫竹箫- ♀ 给 紫竹箫 发送悄悄话 紫竹箫 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 11:23:11

• 叫你那同事干这事，他肯定愿意。 -Happyyl- ♂ 给 Happyyl 发送悄悄话 Happyyl 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 11:26:11

• 嗯，肯定的！再给你说个他的事哈。-- -紫竹箫- ♀ 给 紫竹箫 发送悄悄话 紫竹箫 的博客首页 (173 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 11:35:35

• 带俩炸弹更安全。 -宇之道- ♀ 给 宇之道 发送悄悄话 宇之道 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 11:36:24

• 那太重了，两个就够了。 -紫竹箫- ♀ 给 紫竹箫 发送悄悄话 紫竹箫 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 11:37:06

• 把炸弹涂成粉红色的，而且做成水密桃的形状，这款式是one millionth,百万分之一，这样的话，安全机率又增加百万倍。 -wingreen- ♂ 给 wingreen 发送悄悄话 wingreen 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 12:29:28

• I appoint you as the chairman of MIT's Department of Statistics. -Happyyl- ♂ 给 Happyyl 发送悄悄话 Happyyl 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 12:34:15

• 这是统计学？这一专业也让你们给毁了！ -紫竹箫- ♀ 给 紫竹箫 发送悄悄话 紫竹箫 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 12:37:11

• 啊，这是统计学呀，我还以为是心理学呢！弄错了吧？正确的可能性是多少？ -wingreen- ♂ 给 wingreen 发送悄悄话 wingreen 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 12:50:38

• 任命你去，这不误人子弟吗？ -紫竹箫- ♀ 给 紫竹箫 发送悄悄话 紫竹箫 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 12:55:10

• 误不误不管，跟谁谈工资？500 pound -wingreen- ♂ 给 wingreen 发送悄悄话 wingreen 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 12:57:13

• Probability is only a small part in statistics. -Happyyl- ♂ 给 Happyyl 发送悄悄话 Happyyl 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 12:55:16

• It is about "The waiting time for a bomb". -威威老爷- ♂ 给 威威老爷 发送悄悄话 (415 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 17:55:11

• 哈哈，自欺欺人吧。 -ssjj21- ♀ 给 ssjj21 发送悄悄话 ssjj21 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 06/27/2017 postreply 18:13:52

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