Iran Ceasefire Extension Odds Drop From 86% To 32% On Crypto Prediction Market After Trump’s Latest Social Media Post
Benzinga11:23 PM ET, 05/24/2026
Cryptocurrency punters sharply lowered the odds of the U.S. extending the ceasefire with Iran after President Donald Trump‘s latest remarks cast doubt on progress toward an agreement.
’Exciting' Unlock For Square Sellers
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket assigned a 54% possibility that the U.S. will extend the ceasefire agreement or announce a new peace agreement by June 7. The odds were 87% the day before.
Similarly, the odds of the ceasefire extending by month-end collapsed from 86% to 32% over the last 24 hours.
Polymarket users have already wagered $4.35 million on the contract, highlighting the significance of the outcome.
Notably, the chances of a permanent peace pact between the two countries by the end of June have dropped to 49%, down from 71% the day before.
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Deal Or No Deal?
The surge in betting followed a dramatic weekend of uncertainty around the deal.
Trump said on Sunday the deal with Iran hasn’t been “fully negotiated” and that he advised his team not to “rush” it. This came only a day after he announced that the U.S. was nearing a deal to end the hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran denied any commitments to relinquish its nuclear stockpiles, remove equipment, or shut down facilities.
Key GOP lawmakers expressed concerns that a reported 60-day ceasefire would be harmful if major issues, such as Iran's uranium enrichment and its effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, remain unaddressed.
Meanwhile, Trump kept observers guessing after he posted an AI-generated image of a large bomb mounted beneath a military aircraft late on Sunday
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