PROBABILITY TABLE:
Scenario
Probability
Market Impact
Soft landing — AI keeps working, debt dealt with 35% probability , outcone-S&P +10-15% by year end
10-15% correction Q3 2026, then recovery 30%
Buyable dip
20-30% crash Aug-Oct 2026, slow recovery
25%，Bear market 6-12 months
35%+ crash — multiple triggers hit simultaneously，probability ，2008-level event
