1. US and Isreal want to exit the war in short term. Hegseth said this morning that this is not a long, country building war, it is a short war. US and Isreal are looking for an exit:
2. but the US objectives for the war are hard to achieve in short term. The objectives are: destroy iran nuclear facilities, regiment change, destroy ballistic missile and drone capacity, destroy iran naval force, neutralized iran proxy network.
3. and it is not entirely up to US and Isreal, it is also up to the Iran's willl and capacity of war. Now iran's response is entirely different from what they did last year.
4. if investors start to price-in a longer war, the market will be very volatile.
5. If it becomes a prolonged war, not good for crude price, not good for inflation, not good for fed cut,
not good for the market, which is pressured by high valuation and AI disrutpion.
Let's watch it closely.
