Benzinga03:14 AM , 01/30/2026
Government Shutdown Odds Fall On Polymarket, Kalshi After Trump Says Republicans, Democrats ‘Have Come Together’
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Cryptocurrency punters sharply lowered the odds of the federal government shutdown on Saturday after President Donald Trump announced a bipartisan deal between Republicans and Democrats.
Traders Shift Shutdown Bets
Polymarket traders priced in a 59% chance of a government shutdown, down from 72% the day before.
More than $27 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the platform’s most traded bets as of this writing. The market will resolve to “Yes” if the Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by Jan. 31.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin.
Similarly, bettors on Kalshi predicted a 59% chance of a shutdown, down from 70.6%
Trump’s Funding Assurance
The drop in odds comes after President Donald Trump said “he’s working hard with Congress” to ensure full funding of the government until the end of the fiscal year in September.
“Republicans and Democrats have come together to get the vast majority of the government funded until September, while at the same time providing an extension to the Department of Homeland Security," Trump said in a Truth Social post.
He urged lawmakers from both sides to back the ”bipartisan YES vote.“
"…The only thing that can slow our Country down is another long and damaging Government Shutdown. I am working hard with Congress to ensure that we are able to fully fund the Government, without delay…" – PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP pic.twitter.com/6mD9Ex3Eqs
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 29, 2026
What's At Stake?
Senate Democrats earlier threatened to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security following a fatal shooting in Minneapolis by Border Patrol agents. This raised the possibility of a partial government shutdown when federal funding expires on Jan. 30.
The longest-ever U.S. government shutdown lasted for 43 days last year. The shutdown had halted key government functions and furloughed hundreds of thousands of federal workers, sparking a partisan debate over its cause.
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