19 October 2025 - 08:10 AM
One would think so as gold tends to have blow off tops and rounding or platform bottoms. As of Friday, the 8 day and 13 day ADX indicators are suggesting "trend exhaustion", so some backing and filling to around the $4200 (and maybe even the $4000) level is to be expected over the next week or two just to shake things up. Also remember that these measuring objectives tend to be on a closing basis.
But the good news for the gold bugs is that the minimum upside target has now been reached at $4200, and with the price of silver at new all time highs, it's also likely that the higher target of $4600 will be met as well. In fact, this year's April to August price consolidation structure provides us with a new upside breakout (5th wave) objective to around the $5000/$5100 level as all of the unwilling buyers are forced to join the crowd. As a guess, this peak would likely take place as the current cuts in interest rates comes to an end with the December FOMC meeting for a total of another 1/2 point decline from today's target rate.
For now...the easy part of the trade from the $2000 level is behind us where traders and investors who have been long the metal(s) should be monitoring the upside progress for a 1980 type exit in January. As it was back then, a significant increase in radio, television and social media ads to buy gold and silver will bring a familiar tone that the end of the run is just around the corner...just like we always hear with the price peaks of crude oil.
摘录 October 19, 2025
In terms of time, the upward phase of this 72-day cycle was then projected higher into this late-October timeframe, With Friday's action, as mentioned earlier there is at least some potential for this 72-day cycle to have topped, We should get a new downside 'reversal point' for this wave soon.
Having said the above, at some point this 72-day wave will top - and turn south - and will give way to a sharp correction, with most of the decline phases with this wave making a hard attempt at the lower 72-day cycle band before bottoming.
Stepping back further, the next trough for the aforementioned 72-day wave is projected for the late-November timeframe, but with a large plus or minus variance, a move which is assumed to be countertrend - against the upward phase of the bigger four-year wave. If correct, a push back to higher highs would be expected on the next 72-day cycle upward phase, ideally lasting into February of next year, or later.
With the action into last week, the Gold Timing/Cycle indicator actually remains below its lower line, seen as a mild net positive - but against the backdrop of a divergence in our Timing Index, more of a technical negative.
