1.我也是刚刚做了一些算术，才把问题想清楚。算术的结果在早上发的牒子里面。结果就是，MP太贵，而且资本不够。
2.其实，资本的问题还比字面上严重一点。MP表面上看，有1.55billion captital commitment. But, really it only has 550 million frm DOD. the other 1 billion is just bank arranged commitment. We all know what does that mean. therefore, they only have 550 million dollars on their book now.
3. Even the 1 billion banks arranged committment included, they have just1.55 billion. with this amount of captial you can achive rare earth self sufficience? really too good to be true.
4. Not mention other chllanges.
in short as of today, I do not think they can achive their stated goal with those 1.55 billion dollars (the most), or the 550 million dollars.
没有解。我感觉，中国的稀土管控，会成为常态。不过，它也是分好几步。最后一步的全面实施是明年元旦。我认为，中美之间的停火可能会延申，如what Bessent said 。
关键，是美国稀土没有解啊，无论是现在，还是未来。MP如果真成功了，最多能缓解一些。
5. 其实，中国现在需要美国的不多。中国想买美国什么呢？有人说芯片。不，不对。中国现在是在保护国内的创新和替代产业。比如， NVDA， ｑｃｏｍ
中国其实是在想办法把它挡在国外。是不是？所以，美国的ｃｈｉｐｓ似乎不多。 博弈论怎么讲的？
所以，似乎TACO是最好的选择。所以，我对近期美国市场不是很悲观，尽管我认为它有泡沫。
哦，最后，这不是投资建议。
