比特币有ETF后，性质明显发生变化，首先是波动性大幅下降
同时CORRELATION与SPY大幅增加，比如GBTC（2014年就有了）跟SPY的CORRELATION只有0.24，但IBIT跟其达到0.56，这样分散风险的效果就大大降低了
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俺还有的一个担心是AI可能跟挖矿造成竞争，降低挖矿难度，但根据最新的HASH RATE显示，这个并没有发生：https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate
为什么挖矿如此重要，这是GROK的回答：
If nobody mines Bitcoin anymore—meaning zero active miners contributing computational power—the network would face catastrophic issues due to its proof-of-work consensus mechanism. Below, I'll break down the impacts on hash rate and price step by step, based on Bitcoin's core design principles (which remain unchanged as of August 15, 2025). This scenario is hypothetical and extreme, as mining is incentivized by block rewards and fees, but assuming some external force (e.g., global ban, energy crisis, or total loss of profitability) eliminates all miners.
### Immediate Impact on Hash Rate
- **Hash Rate Drops to Zero**: The hash rate (measured in exahashes per second, EH/s) represents the total mining power securing the network. As of mid-2025, it's around 700–800 EH/s, driven by millions of ASIC miners worldwide. If mining stops entirely, the hash rate would plummet to 0 EH/s almost immediately, as no devices are solving cryptographic puzzles to produce blocks.
- **No Difficulty Adjustment**: Bitcoin adjusts mining difficulty every 2016 blocks (roughly every two weeks) to maintain a 10-minute average block time. With no miners, no new blocks are produced, so the difficulty remains stuck at its last level. This creates a feedback loop: even if someone tried to restart mining later, the unchanged high difficulty would make it nearly impossible without massive hash power, exacerbating the stall.
- **Network Halts**: Without hash power, the blockchain stops growing. The last mined block becomes the effective "end" of the chain, and the network enters a frozen state.
### Short-Term Impact on Price (Hours to Days)
- **Initial Panic and Volatility**: Bitcoin's price (currently around $118,000–$120,000 as of August 2025) would likely experience extreme downward pressure. Exchanges and markets could continue trading BTC as an asset (e.g., via futures or spot on centralized platforms), but on-chain transactions would cease as no blocks confirm them. This would trigger:
- **Mass Sell-Offs**: Holders might rush to sell on exchanges before the network's unusability becomes fully apparent, causing a flash crash. Historical precedents, like the 2022 FTX collapse or 2021 China mining ban, saw 20–50% drops; a total mining blackout could be far worse, potentially wiping out 80–90% of value in days.
- **Liquidity Issues**: Off-chain trading (e.g., on Coinbase or Binance) might persist temporarily via IOUs or wrapped BTC, but as unconfirmed transactions pile up in the mempool, confidence erodes. Spot prices could decouple from on-chain reality, leading to arbitrage chaos.
- **Market Sentiment Collapse**: News of a "dead" network would dominate headlines, amplifying fear. Bitcoin's value derives from utility (as a store of value and medium of exchange) and network effects; without mining, it's neither secure nor functional, resembling a broken database.
### Long-Term Impact on Price (Weeks to Months+)
- **Price Approaches Zero**: Over time, Bitcoin would become effectively worthless as a functional cryptocurrency. Key reasons:
- **Loss of Usability**: No new transactions can be confirmed, so BTC can't be transferred, spent, or used in DeFi, payments, or remittances. Existing holders retain their balances in wallets, but they're trapped—turning BTC into a digital collectible with no practical value.
- **Security Vulnerabilities**: A zero hash rate leaves the network open to attacks (e.g., a single miner could theoretically 51% attack and rewrite history if they restarted alone). This destroys trust, further tanking price.
- **Forking or Alternatives Emerge**: The community might attempt hard forks (e.g., switching to proof-of-stake like Ethereum did in 2022) or create new chains, diluting BTC's value. Surviving forks could inherit some price, but the original chain would be abandoned.
- **Economic Parallels**: Similar to abandoned altcoins (e.g., failed projects from the 2018 ICO bust), BTC's price would trend toward $0 as exchanges delist it or mark it as "inactive." However, speculative "dead cat bounces" could occur if collectors buy it as a historical artifact.
- **Potential Residual Value**: In niche scenarios, BTC might retain minor worth:
- As a historical relic (like rare stamps or obsolete currencies).
- If mining restarts (e.g., via government intervention or incentives), price could recover, but this contradicts the "nobody mines" premise.
### Broader Implications
- **Ecosystem Collapse**: Mining pools, hardware manufacturers (e.g., Bitmain), and related industries (e.g., energy providers in Texas or Kazakhstan) would face bankruptcy. Stablecoins and wrapped BTC on other chains (e.g., Ethereum) might decouple or fail.
- **Why This Is Unlikely in Reality**: Mining is profitable (block rewards ~3.125 BTC per block post-2024 halving, plus fees), and the network is decentralized across 100+ countries. Even drastic events like energy shortages would see hash rate migrate rather than vanish.
- **Historical Analogies**: During the 2021 China mining ban, hash rate dropped 50% temporarily, but recovered as miners relocated; price dipped but rebounded. A total blackout would be unprecedented, akin to the internet shutting down—devastating but theoretically recoverable if incentives return.
In summary, hash rate goes to zero, halting the network, and price crashes toward irrelevance or zero due to lost functionality and trust. This underscores Bitcoin's reliance on decentralized mining for survival.
