Here’s the fully annotated chart showing major McClellan Volume Oscillator (MVO) bottom signals from:
Key Lows Labeled on the Chart
|
? Date |
MVO Level |
Market Event |
Outcome |
|
Mar 2020 |
~-130 |
COVID crash |
Major low → huge rally |
|
Jun 2022 |
~-115 |
Fed tightening panic |
Bottom → Q3 bounce |
|
Jul 2024 |
~-99 |
First wave of selloff |
Short-term bounce |
|
Aug 2024 |
~-128 |
Final capitulation flush |
True bottom → strong rally |
|
Aug 2025 |
-103.23 |
Current oversold level |
Bounce likely, but watch for final flush |
What You Can Learn
- Every major < -100 oscillator low historically marked a key bottom or turning point.
- The pattern of a bounce, then final drop, is repeating.
- Current setup is technically oversold → high probability of short-term rebound.
- But if the bounce is weak, another flush below -120 may follow — that’s historically a strong long entry zone.
你可以从中学到什么：
- 每一次振荡指标低于 -100 的情况，历史上几乎都标志着一个关键的市场底部或转折点。
- “先反弹、再最终下跌”的模式正在重复出现。
- 当前的结构在技术上已属超卖 → 出现短期反弹的概率很高。
- 但如果这次反弹较弱，可能还会有一次跌破 -120 的“最终洗盘”——这种情况下，历史上往往是一个不错的做多入场点。
