I would say "intelligent guess" - including Buffet

AI Overview
 
A smart guess, also known as an "educated guess," means making a prediction or choice based on available information and prior knowledge, rather than randomlyIt involves using what you already know and what you observe to come up with the most likely answer. 
 
Elaboration:
  • Based on information and knowledge:
    A smart guess goes beyond a wild guess and considers the context, clues, and what you already understand. 
     
  • A precursor to making inferences and predictions:
    Learning to make smart guesses helps develop skills in social learning, where individuals can predict outcomes and understand social cues. 
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