请看这组数字，这是过去18年纳斯达克100指数（QQQ）每六个月的收益率变动。整体平均收益率为6.67%，相当于年化收益率13.34%。这通常被称为行业（大盘）平均年回报率。
9.381%, 23.143%, 2.398%, 2.237%, 14.532%, -0.254%, -0.284%, 10.956%, 11.362%, 8.648%, 5.333%, 10.72%, 4.678%, -1.401%, -2.796%, 9.841%, 4.489%, 14.269%, 7.533%, 14.187%, 5.387%, -13%, 18.482%, 2.813%, 14.97%, 19.217%, 17.84%, 7.144%, 9.885%, -7.973%, -9.447%, -4.844%, 11.386%, 12.294%, 19.877%, 16.619%, 5.132%, 6.32%
那么，如果每六个月进行一次买入和卖出操作呢？您的整体回报率仍然是13.34%，但会比仅仅持有QQQ不动更差。这是因为您需要支付交易费用，并且耗费时间。
如果您观察正收益和负收益的次数，会发现您有73.7%的时间是正确的。那么，如果在每六个月QQQ出现负收益时进行交易，并且只持有六个月呢？您的准确率将达到100%。您的回报率将是14.76%，相当于年化29.5%，远高于行业标准。您的资金会有六个月的闲置期，但可以用于其他股票。
对一个机构来说，跑赢大盘就很了不起了，29.5% 是大盘的2倍。顺便说一下，追求跑赢大盘的准确说法是, 阿尔法trading.
所以，简单来说，这是否意味着可以打败巴菲特，他的年化平均回报率低于30%？是的，理论上很简单，但实际上您这样做并不是好的策略。将来有空我再能讨论一下原因和解释一下为什么。祝您交易顺利！欢迎分享任何想法。
The following is copy in Traditional Chinese for people who have hard time to read simplfied Chinese:
請看這組數字，這是過去18年納斯達克100指數（QQQ）每六個月的收益率變動。整體平均收益率為6.67%，相當於年化收益率13.34%。這通常被稱為行業（大盤）平均年回報率。
9.381%, 23.143%, 2.398%, 2.237%, 14.532%, -0.254%, -0.284%, 10.956%, 11.362%, 8.648%, 5.333%, 10.72%, 4.678%, -1.401%, -2.796%, 9.841%, 4.489%, 14.269%, 7.533%, 14.187%, 5.387%, -13%, 18.482%, 2.813%, 14.97%, 19.217%, 17.84%, 7.144%, 9.885%, -7.973%, -9.447%, -4.844%, 11.386%, 12.294%, 19.877%, 16.619%, 5.132%, 6.32%
那麼，如果每六個月進行一次買入和賣出操作呢？您的整體回報率仍然是13.34%，但會比僅僅持有QQQ不動更差。這是因為您需要支付交易費用，並且耗費時間。
如果您觀察正收益和負收益的次數，會發現您有73.7%的時間是正確的。那麼，如果在每六個月QQQ出現負收益時進行交易，並且只持有六個月呢？您的準確率將達到100%。您的回報率將是14.76%，相當於年化29.5%，遠高於行業標準。您的資金會有六個月的閒置期，但可以用於其他股票。
對一個機構來說，跑贏大盤就很了不起了，29.5% 是大盤的2倍。順便說一下，追求跑贏大盤的準確說法是, 阿爾法trading。
所以，簡單來說，這是否意味著可以打敗巴菲特，他的年化平均回報率低於30%？是的，理論上很簡單，但實際上您這樣做並不是好的策略。將來有空我再能討論一下原因和解釋一下為什麼。祝您交易順利！歡迎分享任何想法。
The following is for people who do not speak Chinese:
Please look at this set of numbers, which represents the six-month returns of the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) over the past 18 years. The overall average return is 6.67%, which translates to an annualized return of 13.34%. This is often referred to as the industry (market) average annual return.
9.381%, 23.143%, 2.398%, 2.237%, 14.532%, -0.254%, -0.284%, 10.956%, 11.362%, 8.648%, 5.333%, 10.72%, 4.678%, -1.401%, -2.796%, 9.841%, 4.489%, 14.269%, 7.533%, 14.187%, 5.387%, -13%, 18.482%, 2.813%, 14.97%, 19.217%, 17.84%, 7.144%, 9.885%, -7.973%, -9.447%, -4.844%, 11.386%, 12.294%, 19.877%, 16.619%, 5.132%, 6.32%
Now, what if you buy and sell every six months? Your overall return would still be 13.34%, but it would be worse than simply holding QQQ without any transactions. This is because you have to pay transaction fees and it takes time.
If you look at the number of positive and negative returns, you'll find that you are right 73.7% of the time. So, what if you trade only when the six-month QQQ return is negative and hold for only six months? Your accuracy would reach 100%. Your return would be 14.76%, equivalent to an annualized 29.5%, which is much better than the industry standard. Your funds would be idle for six months, but could be used for other tickers.
For an institution, outperforming the market is already remarkable, and 29.5% is double the market return. By the way, the accurate term for pursuing returns that outperform the market is "alpha trading."
So, simply put, does this mean you can beat Buffett, whose average annual return is less than 30%? Yes, it's theoretically simple, but in practice, doing this is not a good strategy. I can discuss the reasons and explain why when I have time in the future. Good luck with your trading! Any ideas are welcome to share.
