达利欧分析指出，特朗普关税政策的深层动因就在于债务规模失控与借贷增速过快。他认为，美国已深陷“举债维持超额支出”的恶性循环。“这些失衡压力正以各种形式寻求释放，其修正过程将根本性重构货币秩序。”
While tariffs and their market impacts dominate headlines, the deeper, more critical issue is the breakdown of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order—a rare, once-in-a-lifetime shift driven by unsustainable debt, inequality, and deglobalization.
Key forces at play:
Monetary/Economic Order Collapse: Unsustainable debt imbalances (e.g., U.S. overborrowing, China over-lending) are forcing a restructuring of global trade and capital flows.
Domestic Political Fragmentation: Rising inequality and populism are eroding democracies, paving the way for autocratic leadership.
Geopolitical Power Shifts: The U.S.-led multilateral order is fading, replaced by unilateralism and conflict (trade wars, tech wars).
Climate & Tech Disruptions: Natural disasters and AI will further destabilize economies and international relations.
Why focus on these? Tariffs are symptoms, not causes. History shows such imbalances lead to depressions, wars, and new orders. Policymakers must prepare for radical measures (debt defaults, capital controls) as the old system unravels.
