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Dow Jones NewsApr 11, 6:06 PM UTC
MW The Easter bunny is coming - and that's bad news for already record-high egg prices
By Myra P. Saefong
Dyeing Easter eggs and baking holiday treats is set to drive up demand for the cooking staple again
Egg prices are at record highs - and Easter is about to make it even worse before it gets better.
The good news is that gains in retail and wholesale prices are more tempered due to a decline in outbreaks of avian flu, also referred to as HPAI - highly pathogenic avian influenza - and a boost in imports contributing to a recovery in U.S. supplies. The bad news is that Easter, one of the highest-demand seasons for eggs, is just around the corner and likely to tighten supplies, just as U.S. tariffs also look contribute to higher prices.
The spring holiday season is the second-highest seasonal demand period for eggs, only behind the winter holiday season, according to the American Egg Board.
In 2024, the spring holiday sales window - the four weeks leading up to Easter - saw Americans buy 247 million dozen eggs, compared with an average of around 234 million dozen during an off-season, four-week sales window, the American Egg Board said. That's a 5.4% increase, equal to around 156 million eggs.
Retail egg prices typically lag wholesale prices by weeks, and as the Easter holiday approaches, increasing demand may cause a "second, temporary increase in wholesale prices," said Emily Metz, president and chief executive officer at the American Egg Board, in a recent media statement. Easter Sunday is on April 20 this year.
National wholesale prices for white large shell eggs edged up by 26 cents for the week ended April 4, to $3.26 per dozen, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly Egg Markets Overview. That's significantly lower than the wholesale price of about $6.85 a dozen for the week ended March 7.
At the retail level, the average U.S. city price for a dozen large eggs cost $6.227 in March, a new record high - up from $5.897 in February, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But from February to March, prices rose by a more modest 33 cents a dozen, compared to a 94-cent rise from January to February. Retail prices include production costs, producer earnings and store markups.
Demand for eggs softened as prices surged, particularly past $5 per dozen, said Sharmah Seakar, senior procurement lead at Efficio, a global procurement and supply-chain consultancy. "Households and food-service operations adjusted menus and purchases accordingly."
When egg prices exceed $4.50 to $5 per dozen, data suggest that many households cut back on egg-based recipes; switch to cheaper alternatives like oats, legumes or processed foods; and reduce purchase frequency altogether, said Seakar.
Beth Johnson, a grocery-industry expert and director of client strategy at RRD, a marketing and supply-chain solutions provider, said that as prices continued to increase into the first few weeks of March, that's when the percentage of households buying eggs began to decline. She pointed out that demand decline could be voluntary or due to the restrictions that some retailers placed on the quantity consumers can purchase.
As of March 23, the percentage of households buying was down nearly 2 percentage points from a year ago, "resulting in the lowest unit of sales of fresh eggs in the past year," she said.
The good news: More supply
For now, egg supply has improved in the past four weeks, and egg farmers have "been working around the clock to ensure everyone has the eggs they need for their Easter and Passover holiday celebrations," said Metz at the American Egg Board.
That follows the USDA's announcement in late February that it was investing up to $1 billion to fight avian flu and reduce eggs prices. It aimed to invest in biosecurity measures for poultry producers, remove "unnecessary" regulatory burdens on the industry, and explore options to temporarily increase egg imports and decrease exports.
'Fewer new avian-influenza outbreaks and ongoing recovery in laying-hen populations are slowly improving supply.'Sharmah Seakar, Efficio
"Fewer new avian-influenza outbreaks and ongoing recovery in laying-hen populations are slowly improving supply," said Efficio's Seakar.
The number of birds impacted by the flu has declined significantly in recent months, falling from 23.19 million birds in January of this year to 2.1 million in March, and to less than 0.1 million this month as of April 10, according to the USDA.
The National Chicken Council has also petitioned the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to change government regulations that force the broiler-chicken industry to discard eggs instead of using them to help alleviate egg shortages. Broiler chickens are specifically raised for meat production.
Broiler-chicken producers currently destroy millions of "perfectly safe and wholesome eggs" because they lack sufficient refrigeration to meet an FDA food-safety requirement, but "they are pasteurized (cooked) and not a food-safety concern," said Tom Super, a spokesman at the National Chicken Council, a trade association for the U.S. broiler-chicken industry. The destruction of such eggs is particularly notable given that the U.S. is now importing eggs from Turkey, Brazil and South Korea, he said.
While U.S. egg imports have traditionally been minimal due to the "fragility and perishability of eggs," the ongoing supply crisis has forced a "policy pivot," said Seakar, the procurement consultant, noting that egg imports from Brazil have been redirected to commercial processors and food-service providers to free up domestic shell-egg supply for retail.
Overall imports of shell-egg products "exploded in February as the domestic market sought relief from reduced production" resulting from persistent outbreaks of HPAI in the first two months of the year, according to the USDA. The import volume of shell eggs was at about 3.96 million dozens in February, up from 827,290 dozens in January, it said.
Egg imports from Turkey, Brazil and South Korea reached 1.6 million dozens during January and February this year, compared with zero last year, according to Johnson, the grocery-industry expert.
However, all three of those nations still face potentially higher tariffs on their imports into the U.S., even as President Donald Trump paused tariff hikes on most countries for 90 days on Wednesday. Most of the egg imports are used for food processing, but will still impact consumer grocery spending, said Johnson.
Egg challenges
In that way, the U.S. may end up shooting itself in the foot with its tariff plans.
If tariffs impact all egg imports, "prices will rise on fresh eggs and also have an impact on other products as well" in restaurants, bakeries, packaged goods and other things, said Johnson.
Seakar, who focuses on global supply chains, said that tariffs on broader agricultural tools, energy or packaging could indirectly affect the logistics and processing of eggs, adding to costs. Also, if imports of feed for chickens, such as soy from Argentina or fishmeal from South America, are affected, input costs could rise, he said.
And avian flu is still a big threat to egg-laying flocks.
It's important to "keep in mind that we are not out of the woods yet," said Metz at the American Egg Board. Recognizing that wild birds are a leading cause of the spread of HPAI and pose a "great and ongoing threat to egg-laying flocks," egg farms are closely watching the spring migration of wild birds.
The U.S. has lost more than 130 million egg-laying hens to the HPAI outbreak, with more than 30 million laying hens lost since January of this year alone, Metz said. Domestic demand for eggs, meanwhile, has been strong, with demand recently coming off 23 consecutive months of year-over-year increases in retail volume sales of eggs, she said.
Tight supply and high demand directly caused wholesale egg prices to increase for months, culminating in record-high wholesale prices in late February, as well as "intermittent shortages of eggs at some retail locations and in different parts of the country," said Metz.
U.S. egg production totaled 7.85 billion during February of this year - down 9% from last year, according to the USDA.
It'll take a "sustained period with no additional HPAI detections on egg farms to stabilize the national supply," Metz noted.
Meanwhile, the market will face a spike in demand, and eventually another temporary rise in retail prices.
Egg dyeing, baking and brunch traditions fuel demand during the Easter holiday, said Efficio's Seakar - adding that in a typical year, Easter week sees a 10% to 15% spike in egg sales.
With prices already high, 2025 may see "tempered increases as some families adjust buying habits, but the holiday is still expected to positively impact demand," he said.
If avian flu remains under control, egg prices may see a slight decline or stabilization in prices, to potentially around $4.50 to $5 a dozen in the spring to summer period this year, said Seakar. That would still be at least 66% above the average retail price from June 2024.
"While demand will ease post-Easter, structural constraints suggest prices will remain above historical norms for the foreseeable future," Seakar said.
-Myra P. Saefong
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04-11-25 1406ET
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