1. Economy is perceived to be slowing down--if we looked consumer confidence , initial filing, retail sales, more importantly, today's manufacturing data. Please note that the citi economic surprise index is falling like a rock. ---this is near term risk, which investors are waiting for friday's payroll to get confirmation or clearance.
2. The cost structure of large us semi-(NVDSA included) may change for worse in coming years. TSM is going to invest 100 billion in US in next 3 years. TSM will have higher cost structure, and that higher cost will at least partially passed to its customers, like nvda, and avgo. The higher cost curve will inevitably eat into their margin. --this is mid-term risk
3. NVDA specific: The China tariff. 13% of NVDA's revenue is generated from Chinese market. The tarrif war may put some uncertainty on that 13% of NVDA's business. How the trade war is going to play out has large implication for NVDA
4. AI specific. both Dell and HPQ gave disapointed guidance.
just sharing some thoughts, not recommending any trades, one way or the other.
