On Bubble Watch

The baseline of certain stocks, can be found at the very bottom of a major financial crisis. For example, after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the fair market value of most stocks, become attractive again for savvy investors at the dip in early 2009.

Following the Covid pandemic in 2020, many stocks have enjoyed a great run-up. Among them, the Magnificent 7 are everyone's favorite. It's sometimes misleading to assume that, once a stock trend takes shape, the same trend will go on forever. Looking back from 2020.03, certain stocks are looking extremely risky in valuation:

For example, NVDA has reached 22X its value since 2020.03, and TSLA is at 11X. If we regard TQQQ as a 3X leveraged stock, TQQQ is at ~5X. So an average tech stock should be fairly valued at ~1.67X. In that estimate, only AMZN and MSFT are not over-hyped.

With potential AGI on the horizon, it makes sense for investors to get excited.  I do believe the tech future will be promising in the long run. But at present, it may be a good idea to tread the water carefully, as some of the big waves are clearly in sight.

 

 

所有跟帖: 

然而信丹总的少,信川总的多 -moneytalks- 给 moneytalks 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 08:26:55

这哥们幼儿园没毕业觉得自己该拿诺贝尔经济学奖,好歹你查一下NVDA目前营收和5年前的比较 -大胖牛- 给 大胖牛 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 08:50:26

Analyze Mag 7 -dennis_sy- 给 dennis_sy 发送悄悄话 dennis_sy 的博客首页 (1826 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 09:49:13

nv不能仅看营收,关键它的垄断利润太高了,2020-2024盈利涨了11x。 -罗马军团- 给 罗马军团 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 10:36:17

正好显露出这哥们没入门,说个营收他就只查revenue,不查earnings -大胖牛- 给 大胖牛 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 11:03:47

风凉话谁都会说 -dennis_sy- 给 dennis_sy 发送悄悄话 dennis_sy 的博客首页 (278 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 12:32:30

就一小学生水平 总充大个 -jameswang11111111- 给 jameswang11111111 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 14:52:39

这一轮上涨主要是因为AI预期。目前看确实在降本增效方面有实际效果,实实在在减少了企业支出。 -digitalhorizon- 给 digitalhorizon 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 14:46:55

我们在投坦讨论GUP chip制造和AI agent这些深入的东西了,你这还在讨论bubble -cnrhm2017- 给 cnrhm2017 发送悄悄话 cnrhm2017 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/18/2025 postreply 14:56:18

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