Just updated NVDA 估值模型

来源: 三心三意 于 2024-11-20 15:53:30 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (914 bytes)

Based on their guidance, they should be able to hit $185B revenue in 2025., with a growth margin of 73.5% (taking middle of H1 72% and H2 75%). 

Nvidia is starting to control their expense. Their operating expense only grow 9% QoQ this quarter, and guided 10% for next quarter, this is lower than the 12% growth last quarter. This will help their EPS somewhat in 2025.

All together, the EPS is around $4.25 for 2025.

  • If we apply PE of 30, this translate to a stock price of 128.
  • If we apply PE of 35, this translate to a stock price of 149.
  • With a PE of 40, this would be 170

Dont think NVDA can support PE of 40 at this time as there are still uncertainty on Blackwell ramp up and the final margin. But any price closer to 128 should be a steal, and price over 150 could be a bit overvalued at this time.

 

所有跟帖： 

• 中位数149 那么没什么油水了？ ---野牛--- ♂ 给 --野牛-- 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 16:02:58

• 这只是估值，具体的股价还会受情绪影响和大市影响。但我们现在如果看到股价到了155+，可以考虑减仓 -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 16:06:00

• 反过来如果看到130，应该毫不犹豫加仓 -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 16:07:09

• One key assumption here is that... -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (619 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 16:02:59

• what's causing the supply chain bottleneck? -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (95 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 16:37:23

• Typical when introducing a new/complex product in short time -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (92 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 16:50:05

• Their supply could never meet the demand, even for h200. If -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (45 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 17:06:08

• Appreciate a lot for updating the model in such a timely -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (61 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 17:22:28

• Once you have the model, you can update it in 5 mins :) -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (128 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 17:34:47

• Just updated mine for FY2026 as well. Got EPS at $4.25 after -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (129 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 18:26:36

• I am assuming revenue sequential growth is 8% for Q12026 -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (75 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 18:31:36

• 我今天还用他们发布的数据BackTest了我的模型。算出来的.82EPS 比官方数据只差.01:) -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (167 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 17:46:03

• Fantastic! I am going to test mine, too. :) -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 17:53:10

• Just tested mine. Got the same as yours!! EPS 0.82 ! Very -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (38 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 17:59:04

• Hey! I found out that interest & other on NVDA press release -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (106 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 18:19:34

• 大赞！能分享下你的TSLA估值吗？ -suby- ♂ 给 suby 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2024 postreply 20:26:10

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