There are many fundamentally flawed analysis on this forum about "If Semi does not recover, QQQ will not recover".
Semi in late part of 2023 and first half of 2024 is clearly over-valued as a whole industry. Fueled by AI, companies with or without direct contribution to AI all got pumped up in semi sector. In fact, semi sector is the "only" sector that has been in a true bear market since high of July due to this.
If you continue to follow blindly on SMH or SOXX in second half of 2024 and into 2025, you will be disappointed