All eyes on Friday's job data. Time to have a plan

The consenus is for 140K non-farm job addition. My thought on the plan is

A: If job number far better than 140K (let's say 160K or above), SPY and DOW will like stay flat as that means Fed will not cut rate aggresively. QQQ should go up by 1% as strong economy benefit Tech the most

B: If job number come roughly inline between 160K to 140K: this is the best outcome and all 3 index will rally and QQQ could go up by 2%

C: If job number come slightly below around 120K to 140K: IWM will rally as Fed is likely to cut another 50bps and QQQ/SPY stays flat

D: If job number lower than 120K: Market will sell off and QQQ down by 3%

所有跟帖: 

估计不会太大影响,老鲍星期一已经表态他不会激进加息,这两天的波动其实是在消化这个信息,别的都是噪音 -SaltCel- 给 SaltCel 发送悄悄话 (60 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:44:11

如果job大幅低于预期,股市肯定sell off -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:47:00

ADP private payrolls 143000 in Sept, beat expectation -Lucky2022- 给 Lucky2022 发送悄悄话 (255 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:48:01

no, I was referring to nonfarm payroll on Friday -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:49:00

Friday also has unemployment data coming -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:49:00

觉得低于预期可能性大,低多少不知道。 -朝阳如沐- 给 朝阳如沐 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/03/2024 postreply 04:43:47

feel like jobs will be 低于预期 -dtree- 给 dtree 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/03/2024 postreply 06:52:48

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