如果长期处于恐慌的状态。。。

本帖于 2024-09-21 10:02:24 时间, 由普通用户 三心三意 编辑

The truth about stock market is that it is a perfect example of entropy theory --- there is "always" something that makes people think sky is falling.

Human nature likes certainty and "in control", but with so many random news, events, geopolictical activities, sky seems that it will fall everyday, despite the fact that sun always rises up next day.

Conclusion: Do not live in "fear", embrace the opportunity that God has given us in this wonderful country.

Here is the list of "significant" crisis and events since 1985. They all seem like a doomsday event at the time, yet, stock market is at all time high today.

1. Black Monday (1987): Market crash on October 19, 1987, Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 22% in one day

2: Early 1990s Recession (1991): Tight monetary policy and the Gulf War causing oil price spikes, recession with rising unemployment and slow GDP growth.

3: Asian Financial Crisis (1997): Collapse of currency values in Asia due to overleveraged economies, high foreign debt, and speculative financial practices. Casuing global financial market volatility 

4: Russian Financial Crisis (1998):  Russia defaulted on its debt and devalued its currency due to falling oil prices and political instability, leading to the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).

5: Dot-Com Bubble Burst (2000): Excessive speculation in tech stocks, leading to inflated valuations that crashed when profitability failed to materialize. Nasdaq drop by 80%

6: 9/11 Terrorist Attacks (2001): Terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, causing New York Stock Exchange to pause trading for one entire week

7: Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009): Collapse of subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, and a systemic failure of financial institutions. Resulting in deep global recession, massive bank bailouts, and widespread economic hardship with high unemployment.

8: European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2010-2011): High sovereign debt levels in European countries, especially Greece, leading to fears of global economic stagnation

9: U.S.-China Trade War (2018-2019): Escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China, affecting global trade and business confidence. Raised concern of global econmic slow down and job losses in US

10. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): Global health crisis leading to lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, and a sharp economic contraction. Resulting in deepest global recession since World War II, with entire world on standstill

11. 2022-2023 Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes: Post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, energy price spikes from the Russia-Ukraine war, and rapid rate hikes by central banks to combat inflation. 

所有跟帖: 

如果你还没有经历过这里至少一半的危机,那你的投资生涯还只是刚刚起步,还有很长的路 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:06:31

9 out of 11 is what I've been through -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:08:00

5-6 years after I start investing. -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (117 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:12:53

这很少见,说明你有投资天赋,大多数人一辈子做不来股票 -cnrhm2017- 给 cnrhm2017 发送悄悄话 cnrhm2017 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:25:02

lol, lots of people knew the housing crisis is coming -pega- 给 pega 发送悄悄话 pega 的博客首页 (227 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:54:33

猛牛,you and i benefited from dotcom crash in early investing -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (104 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 11:02:25

这次的危机很可能是前所未有前所未见的 -bulubulu- 给 bulubulu 发送悄悄话 (90 bytes) () 09/22/2024 postreply 00:46:14

same here, Dot-Com Bubble Burst (2000)+9/11 Terrorist Attack -pega- 给 pega 发送悄悄话 pega 的博客首页 (210 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:24:18

可以结合vix future contango vs backwardation来克服部分恐惧 -opst- 给 opst 发送悄悄话 (229 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:23:10

同意。 但如猛牛所说,首先是立场,然后才是具体措施。整天恐惧看衰美国,再多方法都是无用的 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:28:38

这里 https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_futures/ -opst- 给 opst 发送悄悄话 (313 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:38:09

谢谢。大千需要更多像这样有价值的帖子!更多的投资方法分享 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:46:29

大哥观察这个多长时间了?我记得5-6年前研究过,当时结论是很弱的指标,现在市场环境变化很大 -楚怀沙- 给 楚怀沙 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 11:34:11

不到一年。只在8.2-8.6观察到过,很明显。4月下跌那次正好出差,那几天没看 -opst- 给 opst 发送悄悄话 (393 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 19:49:37

就前两个没经历,后面都经历了。 -猛牛- 给 猛牛 发送悄悄话 猛牛 的博客首页 (101 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:35:26

Market also went to dog house in summer 2015 to early 2016 -pega- 给 pega 发送悄悄话 pega 的博客首页 (2538 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:37:32

Yes, lol. Didn't crude oil price go to negative at one time? -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:41:47

right after covid break out -pega- 给 pega 发送悄悄话 pega 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:50:29

2018 holiday saesons were ugly -pega- 给 pega 发送悄悄话 pega 的博客首页 (258 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:48:44

最近的recession fear 有好几年了 -CastlePines- 给 CastlePines 发送悄悄话 CastlePines 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 11:29:52

1987年呀? -楚怀沙- 给 楚怀沙 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:00:34

最成功是不炒股 -楚怀沙- 给 楚怀沙 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:11:38

还是有一些关系的,比如本版就很少人投资欧猪五国还有非洲等更差的经济体。investing.com上有一篇关于南非股市的 -lanyin0314- 给 lanyin0314 发送悄悄话 (33 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:11:05

建议读一下MMT现代货币理论,不要不把大教授当领导呀 -楚怀沙- 给 楚怀沙 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:17:49

举个现实的例子:瑞士法郎的存量和她的经济体量完全不成比例,也没有变废纸 -楚怀沙- 给 楚怀沙 发送悄悄话 (48 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:37:29

哈哈,我们可以加上 #12 Fed QE ineffective (2025) 这一条,5年后再回头看 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:33:24

这个机制是什么呢?到目前为止Fed货币政策还是有效的 -楚怀沙- 给 楚怀沙 发送悄悄话 (122 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:40:21

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