投资股市要关注债市

本帖于 2024-09-19 06:20:43 时间, 由普通用户 三心三意 编辑

Currently there are 3 extremely bullish momentum for stocks

1: The long bond market is crashing. 20Y Bond has gone from 4.02% to 4.15% now in less than a day. This is essentially a close to 3% drop in bond price within a day. Investors will take profit (as long bond has gone up 15% over last 6-9 months) and run away from long bond in the short term. --- I explained why long bond is crashing, at least for the time being, in a post yesterday

2: In the past, these money can go and park inside money market. Well, with Fed cutting rate by 50bps, the money market will soon say goodbye to those 5% rate. Not the best idea in the world to park money there unless you are an extremely conservative investor

3:Stocks have been sold off in recent weeks. Investors finally wake up and see a Fed who will do everything possible to ensure economy does not slip into hard ladning. Many people here are debating whether there will be another 25bps or 50bps cut in Nov. That is NOT important. What is important is that wall street now has assurance from Fed.

Once all 3 of these points sink in, you will see this market rocketing higher.

所有跟帖: 

-cat18- 给 cat18 发送悄悄话 cat18 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 09/19/2024 postreply 06:20:17

我也不知道是今天还是选举后大涨,但是经验告诉我们永远不要和Fed做对。 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/19/2024 postreply 06:23:41

你说的那些投资者park big money in MM, I am one of them -island09- 给 island09 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/19/2024 postreply 06:24:42

You can do whatever you want. Doesn't matter to me -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/19/2024 postreply 06:43:01

Tqqq 只是回升、还没到最高点86 -island09- 给 island09 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/19/2024 postreply 06:35:51

20 年长债进一步降息后还会反弹吧? -rosepink- 给 rosepink 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/19/2024 postreply 06:44:00

有可能,但我觉得趋势不妙, here is why -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (801 bytes) () 09/19/2024 postreply 06:53:09

赞! -bobpainting- 给 bobpainting 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 09/19/2024 postreply 07:19:59

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