看到这么多劳模在网上分享看法，也利用这个长周末进一步谈谈我对NVDA 的GM和future 销售的看法。
首先，no recommendation on trade,
其次， I may be wrong;
再次， 我有一点NVDAshort position--small weight。
好了，先谈谈NVDA的GM。 我担心，NVDA的GM has hit inflection point, and will do lower from here. 我在上周的帖子里面讲到，GM is coming down from Q1, Q2, Q3, and in Q4 we may see a bigger Gross margin degradation. Here is a math: Q1 GM is 78%, q2 is 75%plus, and q3 will be down a little big. But if the GM margin for the year is mid 70%, Q4 will be around 72%.
Keep in mind, we will see a ramping up of Blackwell in Q4, yet, the GM in Q4 will come down 3pts. investors may ask why. Here is my thinking。 同学们还记得NVDA's GTC 吗？ NVDA announced Blackwell and its price. Before GTC, the street's consenuse was $70,000; yet NVDA's announce price was a little below that. What does that mean? meaning, Blackwell's GM could be lower. However, Q1 reported 78% GM, investors felt comfortable that NVDA could sell higher GM service /produce along with Blackwell to make up its margin in future.
Now based on NVDA's guidance, looks like, with the pick up of the Blackwell volumn, the margin may come down further
Why blackwell's price lower than consensus? may be due to competition or maintain its market share?
其次， sales。 NVDA 给出了一个指引， 然后+/-2%. therefore, it is a real posssiblity that the Q3 sales will be 2% below the mid point. From risk management perspective, what if the -2% actually happen? How many investors will push the stock to all time high with this risk in mind?
最后，投资者也不必恐慌，毕竟NVDA依然是AI的龙头，依然报出了靓丽的财报，华尔街研究员依然在唱好。对任何投资者，大或小，恐慌都会hurt.
再重复一遍，我有小的short position, no recommendation. 这些分析可能是错误的。
