看一看花姐专业的英伟达前景模型预测

来源: 三心三意 于 2024-08-29 16:17:00 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (828 bytes)
本帖于 2024-08-29 16:20:27 时间, 由普通用户 三心三意 编辑

Ignore the outliers…

Bear case: assume only 7% YoY revenue growth in 2025 (2% per quarter)

Base Case1 : Assume 45% YoY (10% per quarter) revenue growth in 2025

This model also assume gross margin will come down to low 70% in 2025

based on this, the absolute floor for NVDA would be 90s (which is already unlikely as this assumes they only grow revenue by 2% quarter over quarter)

130s would be safe bet given AI industry’s current progression

More likely NVDA will go above 130s

This model is for 2025 so NVDA will have to show it can hit one of these trajectory in its next earning report to hit 130s

 

所有跟帖： 

• You dont need to believe, but can use it build your own -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 16:30:11

• Using this model, I calculated NVDA's price to be 105 -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (273 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 16:58:27

• 按照英伟达自己的财报，未来至少一个可能两个季度，很难有那种爆发式增长。而现在的股价已经完全price了2015的增长。 -害怕- ♂ 给 害怕 发送悄悄话 (208 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 17:05:07

• NVDA's fastest growth period is behind it -越王剑- ♂ 给 越王剑 发送悄悄话 越王剑 的博客首页 (628 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 18:33:37

• Agree. I am only estimating 10% QoQ growth with Blackwell. -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 18:38:57

• 女大的问题是 股价140 市值等同 aapl，大多数投资者无法接受 -exds- ♀ 给 exds 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 19:23:53

• 多谢分享。 -羽衣甘蓝- ♂ 给 羽衣甘蓝 发送悄悄话 羽衣甘蓝 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 08/30/2024 postreply 07:43:03

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