- No big suprises, whatever you have seen from earning report is repated in conference call.
- Several analysts asked about Blackwell and Nvidia confirmed again and again that Blackwell is on track to be "shipping out in Q4", with estimated revenue of $4B coming from Blackwell in Q4
- Margin question was asked by 2 analysts and NVDA only confirmed 75% margin for Q3 and did not provide exact number for Q4, but did say that the entire year margin should also be at mid 70%
- Questions about future customer demands. Jense sees strong demand for both H100/200 and Blackwell and spending is not slowing down. A few analysts did raise the doubt based on their tone of voice. I think street was really looking for Jense to provide a more positive spin on the guidance and Nvidia pretty much stay with what they said in earning report
I think fundamentally, this is a very strong quarter and there is no sign of any blackwell production issue. However, investors are clearly a bit disappointed by the fact that NVDA did not raise the Q3 estimate to above the "whisper number" of $32.9B.
Looking at fundamentals, NVDA's forward EPS for the next 4 quarters is $3.32, which put their forward PE to be right at 35 (afterhour price now is 117). Given NVDA did not provide higher guidane than whisper number, my personal guess is NVDA will range trade between 105-125 (PE 30-38) for sometime.
Overall market may also take this chance to consolidate and start to focus on Fed action and economic news.
