在X上看到这段。 似乎懂了又没完全懂，尤其最后一段，如果是牛市， 为什么大玩家会Sell off？
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We are officially entering Restrictive Easing.
Basically financial condition will still be tight, but less tight than before.
The bond market already cooling for the economy.
Oil price will have a short rally. This time Oil price don't have a strong economy growth to support, so it is likely to rally and consolidate then selloff as the global economy deteriorates more and demands more rate cuts later in H2 2025.
H2 2024 and H1 2025 are likely to be weakening and have flat growth. Unemployment will spike to 5% or higher. This "restrictive easing" will keep it flat or slow down the rise of unemployment. Nevertheless, this makes very little different in lending practice in small to medium businesses. AKA More Bankruptcy filing.
Inflation will continue to trend closer to 2% or much lower, and allow the FED to cut rate much more rapidly, and allowing the Treasury to renew new cheaper debt to replace those massive short-duration TBill issued in 2022-2024.
Chair Powell is asking why inflation is cooling down fast and unemployment remained low, because...
The truth is fiscal spending and government related jobs/services expanded from the continued mad fiscal spending. As long as I'm active on @X , I will keep it real.
When the 10 year yield declines to 3% or lower, that is when Fin-Tech price action will be better. Massive amount of high debt consumers are going to jump on Re-finance wagon to pay down some of the bad debt, which in reality would just be 0.5% to 1% lower, which is a minor difference to the 3-5% refinance Fee, and they have no choice but to move it. So Re-finance companies will do very well in the next 12-18 months due to the massive demands to refinance from consumers even if it is only 0.5-1% less than their original rate.
Service demand will be clapped but the decline will slow down as some of the easing will take place and have lagging effect 12 months from now, so next 4 quarters, travel companies will have worsening earning, but will start to look better 4 quarters from now or stop declining so to speak.
With that said, September will be the 1st rate cut, and that will have consequences, all commodities will rally briefly. Restrictive easing does not mean much in the "main street", but it will give some breathing room for the highly leveraged companies.
The selloff will start any day now. Be ready. The big boys will pull the trigger. "Winners" so far in the last 16-24 months will have the most "profit taking". Be ready!
