购买股票还是购买时代

Nasdaq peaks in year 2000 at 4k+; peaks in year 2023 at 16k+. From year 2000 to 2010, it suffers huge loss and keeps flat for a long time. Then it picks up and reaches today's level. The first decade is not a waste. Most hugely successful companies today are well established since year 2000. In the first decade they store energy, in the second they release. It is not just market sensationalism, because those companies are hugely profitable, with rising revenues and earnings year after year.

It's too much coincidence that many companies go through the same pattern. "Times" is the only explanation. After all, technology comes in waves. No single company can run by itself without benefiting from technologies created by others.

SP500 exhibits a similar pattern. It is strange that well established, boring companies can keep growing and amassing market share like crazy in the last decade, such as MA, V, UNH, COST, HD, or even SBUX.

To zoom out, there seems to be a wave every two decades. The reason is unclear. Something is orchestrating the grand show. It's unknown where we are currently in the show.

所有跟帖： 

• 是時代造神股,不是神股造時代. -金9金- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:26:34

• 有可能，所以选股也是选时代 -monseigneur- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:30:59

• 看看csco就很慘,員工都在找工作. 十幾年就在幾十塊銅板裡面轉來轉去. -金9金- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:37:35

• 不在浪潮里，所以努力也白费；另一个例子是，实体店都被挤垮了 -monseigneur- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:40:02

• 整個社會來說工作機會少了,社會不穩定, 一定要現在賺夠錢跑遠一點躲贏. 谷歌砍3萬人民說明很多. -金9金- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:51:56

• 同意，作为个人什么也改变不了 -monseigneur- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:56:33

• 其实我觉得那些公司没那么BORING，经济学家说，中国月收入2000元以下人口约为9.64亿，印度非洲南美都是一堆穷人。 -c1xwy- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:27:37

• 穷人都会开信用卡的，吃麦当劳的，以后也会有电动车。 -c1xwy- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:28:36

• 海外市场的确是第二波扩张，但本土的扩张也存在，体现为强者吞并市场 -monseigneur- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:34:20

• 20年就是一代人，年轻时的消费习惯跟随一辈子 -挨踢- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:35:26

• 是一种解释 -monseigneur- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:37:41