Stock Market Will Get Worse In 2023 Before It Gets Better, JPMorgan Says (forbes.com) Dec 1, 2022
A dismal start to 2023 for the stock market could happen, JPMorgan Chase analysts predicted in a Thursday note, despite a steady pace of mildly encouraging data indicating softening inflation and an impending slowdown in the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tactics in recent weeks.
KEY FACTS
The JPMorgan team, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, wrote it expects the S&P 500 to “re-test this year’s lows” in the first half of 2023, implying a 14% decline for the S&P from its Thursday level.
The bank cited a “proverbial snowball” of high borrowing costs, a deterioration in consumer savings and a rise in unemployment will contribute to the market’s poor start.
But that stream of bad news should then inspire a Fed pivot to lower interest rates, according to JPMorgan, predicting the S&P will end next year at 4,200, a modest 3.6% gain from where it currently stands.
Several other banks also expect a tepid beginning to 2023 for the market, with UBS strategists predicting last month a “base-case” scenario of 3,700 for the S&P by next June, implying 9% downside, while Goldman Sachs analysts noted Monday the market is currently baking in only an 11% chance of a recession over the next year, compared to a 39% probability in Goldman’s market-based recession model.
Predictably, all eyes will continue to be on the Fed, which is largely expected to raise the federal funds rate a further 100 basis points in coming months, with JPMorgan analysts writing their forecast “largely depend[s] on the depth and length of the recession and the speed of the Fed’s counter-response.”
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这些专门吃这碗饭的，都错的很离谱！何况小散？
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