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先发生美元需求剧减,流通性泛滥,各类资产价格膨胀。然后再来一轮更大规模的升息,缩表。

再然后,经济影响力衰退,各种内轴开始,国力衰退,地缘政治重新平衡,历史翻页。

现在的全球贸易有近85%是美元交易,降到50%就意味着全球金融体系里多余了 > $10万亿, 比联储能缩的可大多了。

 

wWhat happens if global trades in usd drops below 50 percent ?

If global trades in USD drops below 50 percent, it could lead to a depreciation in the dollar1. However, as the dollar weakens, U.S. exports become cheaper to foreigners because they can get more U.S. dollars for the same amount of their currency to buy American goods1.

The world is shifting away from the US Dollar as their world reserve currency. In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently announced that it would no longer use its US Dollar as its primary benchmark for assessing countries’ economic conditions2. While technically the U.S. dollar could collapse, it’s backing from the largest economy in the world and its status as the global reserve currency makes that highly unlikely3.

I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any other questions.

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