MBS - Mortgage Backed Securities

本帖于 2023-03-05 22:01:23 时间, 由普通用户 dennis_sy 编辑

如果MBS Default的问题持续发酵,不排除会成为黑天鹅事件,但暂时还没看到大的风险。现在的问题是,一些office building入住率太低,但同时贷款利率持续飙升,精明的Landlord不想填无底洞,干脆让代理公司破产了事。与此同时,FED为了降低通货膨胀,持续减持MBS,以达到抽干市场上liquidity的目的。这会进一步推低商业地产的价值,导致没人愿意接盘。

  • The Fed's holdings of MBS have dropped by $130 billion from the peak, to $2.61 trillion. Over the past four weeks, MBS have dropped by $15 billion.

  • As the Fed continues to raise interest rates , prices in the $8.7 trillion agency or government-backed MBS market could fall further, prompting financial institutions to trim their balance sheet to stem losse.

  • With at least $92 billion of office mortgages maturing in 2023, landlords are under increasing pressure. 

Recent news on the commercial mortgage default --

  • Mar. 2, 2023, Blackstone Inc. defaulted on a $562 million bond backed by a portfolio of Finnish offices and stores.
  • Feb. 22, 2023,  An office landlord controlled by Pacific Investment Management Co. has defaulted on about $1.7 billion of mortgage notes on seven buildings
  • Feb. 20, 2023, A fund managed by Brookfield Properties defaulted on $784 million of loans on two well-known Los Angeles office skyscrapers.

[Reference]

1. https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/02/feds-balance-sheet-drops-by-626-billion-from-peak-cumulative-operating-loss-grows-to-38-billion-update-on-qt/

2. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1h7ld8s7ldou8/The-Mortgage-Backed-Securities-Market-Faces-New-Challenges

3. https://www.connectcre.com/stories/large-office-loan-defaults-are-on-the-rise/

 

 

所有跟帖: 

黑石的股价不仅没跌,周五还涨了2个点 -bullmax- 给 bullmax 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 03/05/2023 postreply 21:55:18

一月初,我就把黑石的股 -圆西瓜- 给 圆西瓜 发送悄悄话 圆西瓜 的博客首页 (24 bytes) () 03/05/2023 postreply 21:59:01

这从另一个角度印证了一个事实 -dennis_sy- 给 dennis_sy 发送悄悄话 dennis_sy 的博客首页 (99 bytes) () 03/05/2023 postreply 21:59:53

办公室退租也许会增加,如果经济持续不温不火 -mancini- 给 mancini 发送悄悄话 mancini 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 03/05/2023 postreply 22:13:06

这些子项目是独立核算的对吗?就是说黑石可以让某个项目破产,而不影响到旗下的其它项目? -houhod- 给 houhod 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 03/06/2023 postreply 05:28:42

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