巴菲特指标

来源: dpwas 于 2023-02-08 12:09:22 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (4522 bytes)

Overview

 

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP. As of February 3, 2023 the ration is calculated as:

Aggregate US Market Value: $44.5T

Annualized GDP: $26.2T

Buffett Indicator: $44.5T ÷ $26.2T = 170%

This ratio fluctuates over time since the value of the stock market can be very volatile, but GDP tends to grow much more predictably. The average "trend line" value of the ratio is shown below. The current ratio of 170% is approximately 32% (or about 1.0 standard deviations) above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is Overvalued relative to GDP.

所有跟帖： 

• 赞 -justok1025- ♂ 给 justok1025 发送悄悄话 justok1025 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 02/08/2023 postreply 12:33:32

• ding -暴走的中年- ♂ 给 暴走的中年 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/08/2023 postreply 12:35:16

• 问题是这几年一直overvalued 吧，由于大水漫灌 -malearning- ♀ 给 malearning 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/08/2023 postreply 13:05:28

• Firms from other countries also go public and listed in US -zhoufang- ♂ 给 zhoufang 发送悄悄话 (54 bytes) () 02/08/2023 postreply 13:20:10

• only us stocks -dpwas- ♂ 给 dpwas 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/08/2023 postreply 13:26:00

• 见内图 -foolman- ♂ 给 foolman 发送悄悄话 (81 bytes) () 02/08/2023 postreply 13:58:33

• 只看巴菲特指标做，这几年空仓 -芝麻圆- ♂ 给 芝麻圆 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/08/2023 postreply 14:10:17

• 又来了，上次就反驳过了美国GDP好年景也就2-3%，股市2-3%的收益谁去啊？ -Grainsw- ♀ 给 Grainsw 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/08/2023 postreply 15:20:08

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