However bond market (yield curve, spread between junk and 10 yr) just simply does not forecast/support a bear market coming imminately.
In addition XLK & XLY are not confirming the market breakdown. Both account for roughly 40% of SPY.
Earnings are good. Let's use $155 as SPX E, ie earning yield 5.8% via 10 yield 2.852% (as of today). Stocks are cheaper than bonds.
Of course Trump administration is an uncertainty, Peter Navarro and John Bolton especially. I felt that Peter Navarro not only successfully survived Trump adm so far, but also convinced Trump. John Bolton recent remark is "China will not/never prevail over United States".
A side question - do you have any resources where to find leverage data?
