Actually, this year Goldman Sachs wasn't too bad in predicting oil trend this year. In early this year GS predicted bear trend. In Spring there was a bounce back and many said it was recovering but GS predicted the bounce wouldn't last. In summer GS predicted oil would get to new low by end of this year and it became true. If you used the inverse of GS prediction this year you would have lost miserably. It is already below $36 Friday, so even it doesn't get to $20 finally, GS had done good prediction overall.